EPAC: INVEST 91E - Discussion

[cycloneye]

EP, 91, 2023082400, , BEST, 0, 101N, 986W, 20, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 100, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 016, SPAWNINVEST, ep772023 to ep912023,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep912023.dat

[cycloneye]

Looks like this one may affect the coast of Mexico or be a close call.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

South of Southern Mexico (EP91):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the coast of southern Mexico is producing some disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next few days while it moves slowly to the
northwest or north-northwest. Interests in southwestern Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

EP, 91, 2023082412, , BEST, 0, 104N, 980W, 20, 1008, DB

[Extratropical94]

South of Southern Mexico (EP91):
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the coast of southern Mexico is producing limited shower activity.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for some gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next few days while it moves slowly to the
northwest or north-northwest. Interests in southwestern Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP91):
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the
southern and southwestern coast of Mexico is producing limited
shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear
marginally conducive for some slow development of this system, and
a tropical depression could form during the next few days while it
moves slowly northwestward or northward. Interests in southwestern
Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP91):
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southern and southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions appear marginally conducive for some slow development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form during the next
few days while it moves slowly northwestward or northward toward
southwestern Mexico. Interests in southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP91):
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear
only marginally conducive for development of this system while it
meanders offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next
few days. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should
continue to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[Extratropical94]

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP91):
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce disorganized
shower activity. Development, if any, of this system should be slow
to occur while it meanders off the coast of southwestern Mexico
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Sciencerocks]