ATL: IDALIA - Models

[Blown Away]

06Z HWRF way east:

https://i.postimg.cc/ryQ3VHwq/hwrf-mslp-wind-10-L-fh45-63.gif

The motion is @NNE once TD10 makes the turn N. How far E does TD10 go today or COC relocate before it turns will give us the angle.

[jlauderdal]

06z HAFS models >1 degree SE of 00z with landfall just N of Tampa near Crystal River. So it appears the longer TD10 takes to move out of the Caribbean that delay may result in E adjustments. Note, not as strong on the 06z compared to 00z.

Yep...until we see movement off the yucatan, low conidence track and intensity...cuban landmass could influence track

[gatorcane]

Euro shifts back east but only 997MB at 72 hours.

[chris_fit]

06z Euro is East of the 00z but nothing drastic like the shift by the hurricane models this morning.

[TallyTracker]

The HWRF makes that little eastern jog near the western tip of Cuba. That places the storm in a more easterly location when the NNE motion begins. That motion appears somewhat suspect. If that doesn’t happen, the storm likely landfalls further north in that model run.

[chris_fit]

06z UKMT anyone?

[gatorcane]

06Z NAVGEM big shift east. Was landfalling around Apalachicola on the 00Z:

[Teban54]

A good thing is that 6z runs of all four hurricane models have backed off from the aggressive 920s and 930s they were showing at 0z, and are now generally showing landfall pressure in the 950s and 960s. Hopefully the trend continues, although that may be wishful thinking.

Do we know if the 12z runs will have recon data, or do we have to wait for 18z? The first runs of hurricane models after recon will be crucial.

[cycloneye]

A good thing is that 6z runs of all four hurricane models have backed off from the aggressive 920s and 930s they were showing at 0z, and are now generally showing landfall pressure in the 950s and 960s. Hopefully the trend continues, although that may be wishful thinking.

Do we know if the 12z runs will have recon data, or do we have to wait for 18z? The first runs of hurricane models after recon will be crucial.

From the 4 AM CDT discussion.

The NOAA G-IV aircraft should be in the area this afternoon to
help smooth out the model differences along with special upper-air
soundings scheduled across many areas of the southeastern United
States.

[tolakram]

Morning model landfall predictions

[gatorcane]

Notable east shift with 12Z guidance:

[chris_fit]

Notable east shift with 12Z guidance:

https://i.postimg.cc/7LxwvqDS/10-L-tracks-12z.png

Was not expecting that!

[Ianswfl]

Notable east shift with 12Z guidance:

https://i.postimg.cc/7LxwvqDS/10-L-tracks-12z.png

Was not expecting that!

One member even into Bradenton now. Few tampa as well.

If this is cedar Key on south quicker landfall. People will be caught off guard! Not much time for tampa to prepare. Leas than 72 hrs.

[SFLcane]

Notable east shift with 12Z guidance:

https://i.postimg.cc/7LxwvqDS/10-L-tracks-12z.png

Was not expecting that!

One member even into Bradenton now. Few tampa as well.

If this is cedar Key on south quicker landfall. People will be caught off guard! Not much time for tampa to prepare. Leas than 72 hrs.

Don’t think it was the last eastward shift you’ll see.

[Ianswfl]

Was not expecting that!

One member even into Bradenton now. Few tampa as well.

If this is cedar Key on south quicker landfall. People will be caught off guard! Not much time for tampa to prepare. Leas than 72 hrs.

Don’t think it was the last eastward shift you’ll see.

What's the most eastward you see the majority of the models going? Tampa region or maybe even Sarasota area?

[tolakram]

6Z Euro

[jlauderdal]

Notable east shift with 12Z guidance:

https://i.postimg.cc/7LxwvqDS/10-L-tracks-12z.png

Was not expecting that!

Expect further track changes until this thing starts moving..remember the angle of approach makes big swings even more likely..a little to the right, little the left, little to the south makes the long term track very low confidence right now and the action is on the right side as usual

[boca]

Notable east shift with 12Z guidance:

https://i.postimg.cc/7LxwvqDS/10-L-tracks-12z.png

Was not expecting that!

Expect further track changes until this thing starts moving..remember the angle of approach makes big swings even more likely..a little to the right, little the left, little to the south makes the long term track very low confidence right now and the action is on the right side as usual

South Florida shouldn’t let their guard down either.

[NDG]

Hurricane models 72 hrs before Michael made landfall.

[jlauderdal]

Was not expecting that!

Expect further track changes until this thing starts moving..remember the angle of approach makes big swings even more likely..a little to the right, little the left, little to the south makes the long term track very low confidence right now and the action is on the right side as usual

South Florida shouldn’t let their guard down either.

Correct, we have to see how intense it gets and of course track....its all about the feeder bands and where they setup for us