ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Coolcruiseman]

An interesting start to this storm. Have there been other storms that start like this before taking a beeline towards Florida?

[Ianswfl]

Very strong surface winds in the MCS's
Largest so far is 67 knts

If that takes over we could get a cat4 in the Gulf! Also means more east, even Bradenton could be in play. Luckily tue late night landfall so less time then.

[Frank P]

Using the MSFC VIS SAT LOOPS, this certainly looks like the center of TD10.

https://weather.ndc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-abi

https://i.ibb.co/82jjZrw/IMG-3650.jpg

I agree that looks like the center. Not sure if it’s THE center or one of several. It appears to be moving NE at a good clip.

Yeah, I was looking at it and it definitely moving off to the NE, could be the center or one hell of a very strong eddy TD10 is spitting out. If it’s the center is was entirely exposed at one point in the loop.

[Nuno]

An interesting start to this storm. Have there been other storms that start like this before taking a beeline towards Florida?

Wilma comes to mind. Hung out in the W. Car for a while before it trucked to FL.

[GCANE]

Very strong surface winds in the MCS's
Largest so far is 67 knts

If that takes over we could get a cat4 in the Gulf! Also means more east, even Bradenton could be in play. Luckily tue late night landfall so less time then.

Not out of the question.
Forecasted conditions in the GoM were IMHO good yesterday to very good today.
Tomorrow maybe excellent especially if the W GoM trof tilts more positive giving a better anticyclonic wave break.
Loop Current and top-end CAPE is pure nitro fuel.

[NDG]

Naked swirl alert, not surprising because of the predicted northerly shear as UL anticyclone moves SW away from it.
Appears to be moving east now.

[stormhunter7]

Clearly see a low level swirl in visible satellite now... Looks to be moving east?

[aspen]

Naked swirl alert, not surprising because of the predicted northerly shear as UL anticyclone moves SW away from it.
Appears to be moving east now.

https://i.imgur.com/L5Hsv0i.gif

Recon is way south of it. I hope they check it out; sometimes they miss where an LLC is forming in these invests or new TDs.

[johngaltfla]

An interesting start to this storm. Have there been other storms that start like this before taking a beeline towards Florida?

Since I moved back here in 1987 let me just sum up the scientific jargon into one word:

"Lots"

[NDG]

Kind of weird first approach to the south of it, plenty of west winds, is closed

[johngaltfla]

Naked swirl alert, not surprising because of the predicted northerly shear as UL anticyclone moves SW away from it.
Appears to be moving east now.

https://i.imgur.com/L5Hsv0i.gif

Which means the storms should start wrapping around rapidly by tonight. Not good for FL.

[Blown Away]

From 4am Update:
INIT 27/0900Z 20.1N 86.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 20.1N 86.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 20.6N 86.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 21.7N 86.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 23.3N 86.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 29/1800Z 25.7N 85.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 28.5N 84.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 31/0600Z 33.0N 81.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/0600Z 35.0N 75.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER

If the COC is in the circle @19.9N/85.8W, the 4am didn’t have TD10 crossing 85.7 for @60 hrs…

[NDG]

Naked swirl alert, not surprising because of the predicted northerly shear as UL anticyclone moves SW away from it.
Appears to be moving east now.

https://i.imgur.com/L5Hsv0i.gif

Recon is way south of it. I hope they check it out; sometimes they miss where an LLC is forming in these invests or new TDs.

I am sure they know where it is, it has been nicely tracked from the Cancun radar.

[Nimbus]

Naked swirl alert, not surprising because of the predicted northerly shear as UL anticyclone moves SW away from it.
Appears to be moving east now.

https://i.imgur.com/L5Hsv0i.gif

Recon is way south of it. I hope they check it out; sometimes they miss where an LLC is forming in these invests or new TDs.

Recon is checking the southern quadrants.
center loks near 19.8n -85.8w

[Ianswfl]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/Gtgk2f4S/9-DB7-E8-A9-AA95-48-D7-BCC6-9-AB3250-AAC6-A.jpg [/url]

From 4am Update:
INIT 27/0900Z 20.1N 86.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 20.1N 86.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 20.6N 86.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 21.7N 86.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 23.3N 86.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 29/1800Z 25.7N 85.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 28.5N 84.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 31/0600Z 33.0N 81.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/0600Z 35.0N 75.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER

If the COC is in the circle @19.9N/85.8W, the 4am didn’t have TD10 crossing 85.7 for @60 hrs…

Nit good for further down the coast. Landfall around tampa would give me hurricane gusts in Punta Gorda

[stormhunter7]

Miss Piggy is at 10kft... So I know they can see surface center. Might see something on radar they want to investigate... They have turned NNE now.

[NDG]

You can nicely see how the convection has been sheared to the south of the LLC as it started tracking to the east.

[skillz305]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/Gtgk2f4S/9-DB7-E8-A9-AA95-48-D7-BCC6-9-AB3250-AAC6-A.jpg [/url]

From 4am Update:
INIT 27/0900Z 20.1N 86.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 20.1N 86.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 20.6N 86.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 21.7N 86.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 23.3N 86.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 29/1800Z 25.7N 85.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 28.5N 84.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 31/0600Z 33.0N 81.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/0600Z 35.0N 75.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER

If the COC is in the circle @19.9N/85.8W, the 4am didn’t have TD10 crossing 85.7 for @60 hrs…

Yup. Once the recon data is fed into the models I fear a big swing in the model guidances. It’s part of the game.

[gatorcane]

Definitely looks like the LLC is moving east, the more east it goes the more the track could shift east.

[Spacecoast]

UW-CIMSS: