ATL: IDALIA - Models

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Nuno
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#361 Postby Nuno » Sun Aug 27, 2023 9:07 am

jlauderdal wrote:
boca wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:Expect further track changes until this thing starts moving..remember the angle of approach makes big swings even more likely..a little to the right, little the left, little to the south makes the long term track very low confidence right now and the action is on the right side as usual


South Florida shouldn’t let their guard down either.

Correct, we have to see how intense it gets and of course track....its all about the feeder bands and where they setup for us


Thankfully we will be far from any core but like Ian, those feeder bands that day before landfall was the worst weather we've seen from a tropical system since Irma. Going to be a tricky day for the whole state given it'll be business as usual for school and work but in miserable enough conditions. I'm worried for the west coasters about this really ramping up.
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#362 Postby Spacecoast » Sun Aug 27, 2023 9:10 am

06z EPS:
Image

Closeup of 1st 48hrs...
Image
Last edited by Spacecoast on Sun Aug 27, 2023 9:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#363 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 27, 2023 9:11 am

06z Euro, nice job on the current cyclonic loop that it has been doing since last night.

Image
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#364 Postby skillz305 » Sun Aug 27, 2023 9:17 am

Updated 12z Track Guidance

Image
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#365 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 27, 2023 9:36 am

06Z HWRF with a pronounced NNE track out of the Caribbean:

Image
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#366 Postby syfr » Sun Aug 27, 2023 9:53 am

The models do seem to be converging, and I have to believe that the fact that the storm is basically stationary at the moment , is not helping the prediction efforts.
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#367 Postby LandoWill » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:04 am

I am confused why tampa is out of the cone completely and their "cone" guidance is more west than what these graphics I've been seeing shows?
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#368 Postby Gums » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:04 am

Salute!

Well, if the storm moves slowly, the basic cold front coming in 3 days will help a bunch..have seen it too many times down here in the Panhandle.

Still, looks like Cedar Key, Steinhatchee and maybe Crystal River will take the worst, and do not rule out a sharp turn and head for Tampa. We should know if it makes the eastward turn by Monday night.

Gums sends...
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#369 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:06 am

LandoWill wrote:I am confused why tampa is out of the cone completely and their "cone" guidance is more west than what these graphics I've been seeing shows?
The cone is simply circles around each forecast point. If the forecast points move the cone will move. The size of each circle is set at the beginning of each year based on average forecast error.
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#370 Postby caneman » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:10 am

LandoWill wrote:I am confused why tampa is out of the cone completely and their "cone" guidance is more west than what these graphics I've been seeing shows?


Dont get hung on that. If it comes to Crystal river it may as well be a Tampa Bay area hit due angle of approach and how close it will be to us
Last edited by caneman on Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#371 Postby psyclone » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:11 am

tolakram wrote:
LandoWill wrote:I am confused why tampa is out of the cone completely and their "cone" guidance is more west than what these graphics I've been seeing shows?
The cone is simply circles around each forecast point. If the forecast points move the cone will move. The size of each circle is set at the beginning of each year based on average forecast error.


Forget the cone and look at wind probs. Tampa's have been marching relentlessly higher with each advisory. The absolute number along with trend lines represent the best way to assess risk in a given region at this early juncture.
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#372 Postby CronkPSU » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:15 am

discussions says the cone did move east

" The official forecast track has been nudged to the right of the
previous one, but is not quite as far east as the latest corrected
consensus, HCCA, prediction."
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#373 Postby LandoWill » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:23 am

CronkPSU wrote:discussions says the cone did move east

" The official forecast track has been nudged to the right of the
previous one, but is not quite as far east as the latest corrected
consensus, HCCA, prediction."

Yeah they did on the new one.. sigh
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#374 Postby Ianswfl » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:24 am

Icon shifted south about 15 miles at 12z
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#375 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:38 am

GFS 12Z Started

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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#376 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:39 am

East
Image
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#377 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:41 am

tolakram wrote:East
Image
Tampa folks caught a break on ian, this setup doesnt look good for them.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#378 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:43 am

Image
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#379 Postby Woofde » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:44 am

Franklin is noticeably weaker thus far on this GFS run.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#380 Postby floridasun » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:44 am

so you think nhc will keep cone same or move it more to south close to sw fl?
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