ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

Several surface winds of 45kt...this is a TS. Several rain contaminated 50kt readings

[Sciencerocks]

[zzzh]

They did not name it at 15z.

[MetroMike]

Nothing out yet?

[Hugo1989]

85.8W

[Owasso]

...DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 85.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...135 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

[tolakram]

They did not name it at 15z.

It would have been written prior to the very latest recon data. When we get a VDM I'm sure they will call it, if not sooner.

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1695813435798495376

[Hypercane_Kyle]

They did not name it at 15z.

Might not have had enough time to incorporate the recon data totally into their package. MSLP recorded by recon also lower than 15z package.

[zzzh]

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 85.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...135 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

Pressure still 1001mb

[CronkPSU]

NHC moved it west again, is that because of GFS?

moved it East according to the discussion

"The official forecast track has been nudged to the right of the
previous one, but is not quite as far east as the latest corrected
consensus, HCCA, prediction."

[johngaltfla]

Buckle up West Coast Floridians, we're in for a long 36 hours while she makes up her mind.

[GCANE]

Solid TS SFMR readings

[aspen]

999/28 center drop supports 996-997 mbar. Looks like winds are 40, maybe 45 kt. Really poor timing that the center pass was just as advisories were being issued. Hopefully they put out a special advisory within the hour to upgrade.

[MetroMike]

Tampa Bay is back in the cone FWIW at this time. Better to do this than to avoid any downplaying by some mets that do that.

[Owasso]

The current intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory which is in
line with the latest Dvorak Satellite estimates.

It looks like the advisory didn't have recon data just yet, maybe a special advisory for Idalia?

[tolakram]

latest NHC forecast

[NDG]

Definitely the SW quadrant is where the action is with the storm, very weak NE quadrant.

461
URNT15 KWBC 271504
NOAA3 0110A CYCLONE HDOB 32 20230827
145430 2012N 08534W 6954 03170 0012 +119 +097 142016 017 020 000 00
145500 2014N 08533W 6955 03170 0014 +118 +102 138016 017 026 000 00
145530 2016N 08533W 6955 03172 0019 +114 +106 128015 018 023 002 00
145600 2018N 08532W 6956 03169 0022 +112 +106 134013 014 012 000 00
145630 2020N 08532W 6954 03173 0024 +111 +101 118013 014 024 055 00
145700 2022N 08531W 6956 03171 0025 +111 +095 104012 013 010 018 00
145730 2024N 08530W 6956 03170 0025 +112 +085 099011 011 009 013 00
145800 2026N 08530W 6956 03170 0027 +109 +091 097010 010 010 015 00
145830 2028N 08529W 6954 03171 0030 +106 +101 097009 010 007 002 00
145900 2030N 08528W 6954 03173 0032 +105 +101 091009 010 004 002 00
145930 2032N 08527W 6956 03173 0031 +107 +099 092008 010 009 000 00
150000 2034N 08526W 6955 03173 0027 +111 +094 098009 010 012 000 00
150030 2036N 08526W 6955 03173 0029 +108 +102 099008 009 012 000 01
150100 2038N 08525W 6953 03174 0032 +106 +110 092008 008 004 000 01
150130 2040N 08524W 6957 03171 0029 +107 +115 099007 008 000 000 01
150200 2042N 08523W 6956 03171 0033 +105 +112 117008 009 000 000 01
150230 2043N 08523W 6955 03173 0028 +108 +113 116010 011 002 000 01
150300 2045N 08522W 6956 03174 0028 +110 +104 117011 012 008 015 00
150330 2047N 08521W 6956 03174 0027 +111 +112 126012 012 014 000 01
150400 2049N 08520W 6950 03181 0032 +110 +087 132012 013 014 000 00

[Owasso]

We have Idalia

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
Tropical Depression Ten has strengthened into Tropical Storm Idalia.
The maximum winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.

SUMMARY OF 1015 AM CDT...1515 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 85.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...135 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

[skillz305]

Officially Tropical Storm Idalia

[Hurricaneman]

The thing is it also looks to have taken in some dry air on its north side along with some northerly shear