ATL: IDALIA - Models

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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#381 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:44 am

Trend from previous run
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#382 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:45 am

Pretty clear short-term trend on the GFS -- stronger in the Caribbean, consolidates further east.

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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#383 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:46 am

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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#384 Postby BobHarlem » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:46 am

12z icon no significant change from 6z. Canadian has started too, so far fairly east of 0z.

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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#385 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:47 am

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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#386 Postby Ianswfl » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:48 am



I bet this gfs run is citrus county
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#387 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:49 am

4 run trend. I don't think the recon data is in this run.

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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#388 Postby CronkPSU » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:49 am



geez not far off from getting close to a fujiwhara
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#389 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:50 am

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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#390 Postby hohnywx » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:51 am

tolakram wrote:4 run trend. I don't think the model data is in this run.


 https://twitter.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1695825763558105458


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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#391 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:51 am

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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#392 Postby lsuhurricane » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:52 am

This GFS run is concerning on a few levels....

-big pressure drop in the next 36 hrs
-additional surge risk to Tampa
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#393 Postby IcyTundra » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:53 am

No recon data for the 12Z GFS.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#394 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:54 am

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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#395 Postby Owasso » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:55 am

lsuhurricane wrote:This GFS run is concerning on a few levels....

-big pressure drop in the next 36 hrs
-additional surge risk to Tampa


Doesn't have recon data, initializes weaker and still ends up with a major hurricane. Really concerning
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#396 Postby chris_fit » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:56 am

12z GFS with the E shift. E is the trend today. Curious how the 18z models with recon data will trend... That will be telling, at least for me in the Tampa area on how seriously I need to be taking this.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#397 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:59 am

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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#398 Postby BobHarlem » Sun Aug 27, 2023 11:32 am

12z Canadian, Shifted right to Steinhatchee (was Apalachicola at 0z)

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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#399 Postby LarryWx » Sun Aug 27, 2023 11:33 am

12Z UKMET: about same as 0Z with landfall NW part of FL Big Bend moving NNE followed by turn to NE/ENE going through south central and then SE GA. Then it goes offshore near CHS, SC:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10L ANALYSED POSITION : 19.8N 86.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.08.2023 0 19.8N 86.1W 1003 24
0000UTC 28.08.2023 12 20.4N 85.3W 1001 29
1200UTC 28.08.2023 24 21.4N 85.5W 1001 33
0000UTC 29.08.2023 36 22.6N 85.8W 1001 36
1200UTC 29.08.2023 48 24.2N 86.1W 1000 34
0000UTC 30.08.2023 60 25.8N 85.5W 999 38
1200UTC 30.08.2023 72 28.6N 84.6W 995 49
0000UTC 31.08.2023 84 31.2N 82.7W 993 39
1200UTC 31.08.2023 96 33.2N 78.8W 993 43
0000UTC 01.09.2023 108 33.4N 75.0W 995 48
1200UTC 01.09.2023 120 33.8N 72.0W 999 46
0000UTC 02.09.2023 132 33.2N 69.2W 1001 43
1200UTC 02.09.2023 144 32.8N 68.4W 1003 37
0000UTC 03.09.2023 156 33.6N 65.9W 1003 35
1200UTC 03.09.2023 168 33.6N 64.5W 999 47
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#400 Postby SconnieCane » Sun Aug 27, 2023 12:00 pm

12Z HAFS starting to come in. Both have something in the 980s MB off the western tip of Cuba at FH036.
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