ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[zzzh]

Is there something wrong with the SFMR readings on NOAA3? It reads 40+kt winds while FL is only 10+kt.

[Extratropical94]

Lowest Extrapolated Pressure of 995.7 mb.

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgQev.png
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgQev.png

I have never seen a 40-mph storm with a pressure of less than 1000 mb.

Irwin in the EPAC is at 35kt/998mb right now

[GCANE]

Getting to be the time of day when solar heating puts a lid on intensification.
May see more action around sunset.
Going to be a lot of popups over the Yucatan and Cuba late afternoon which will feed in moisture overnight

What is CAPE looking like today?

3000 just to the north of the CoC
Hate to say it but rapidly increasing in the GOM in the direction of the forecast track.
Right now 6000 along the track SW of Tampa.
7000 further west,
Pure nitro

[Iceresistance]

Lowest Extrapolated Pressure of 995.7 mb.

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgQev.png
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgQev.png

I have never seen a 40-mph storm with a pressure of less than 1000 mb.

Irwin in the EPAC is at 35kt/998mb right now

Oh, I forgot about Irwin, but in the Atlantic, I have never seen a 40 mph/35 knot storm with a pressure below 1000 mb.

[hiflyer]

I posted this in the Models thread last night...I'm concerned about the Tampa Bay area. Called my relatives yesterday and told them to get ready. There's not going to be a long preparation window with this one.

Agreed…especially as this became a storm almost full day early from models and forecast track no longer meanders in the strait but shows instead a slow steady movement NNE and brushing western tip of Cuba.

[GCANE]

55mm rain rate
Strong enough to warm the core at a good pace

[SconnieCane]

Lowest Extrapolated Pressure of 995.7 mb.

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgQev.png
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgQev.png

I have never seen a 40-mph storm with a pressure of less than 1000 mb.

Irwin in the EPAC is at 35kt/998mb right now

Who'd a ever thought, El Nino and the Atlantic is matching the EPAC NS for NS!

[Category5Kaiju]

Ah yes, another Gulf I storm. What could possibly go wrong?

I think this will certainly be a storm to watch.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Lowest Extrapolated Pressure of 995.7 mb.

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgQev.png
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgQev.png

I have never seen a 40-mph storm with a pressure of less than 1000 mb.

Irwin in the EPAC is at 35kt/998mb right now

Who'd a ever thought, El Nino and the Atlantic is matching the EPAC NS for NS!

El nino tends to shut down the atlantic in mid september. dunno how this year will work out. Regardless, Idalia has free reign over the gulf.

[Iceresistance]

Irwin in the EPAC is at 35kt/998mb right now

Who'd a ever thought, El Nino and the Atlantic is matching the EPAC NS for NS!

El nino tends to shut down the atlantic in mid september. dunno how this year will work out. Regardless, Idalia has free reign over the gulf.

I do want to point out that during the 2015 Super El Nino, the Atlantic had Joaquin in Late September through Early October.

[SFLcane]

Oh boy!

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1695831312349937987

[Iceresistance]

Dropsonde has 998 mb in 22 knot wind, so maybe around 995 or something? I don't do the knot/pressure conversion very well.


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgW2q.png

[johngaltfla]

I posted this in the Models thread last night...I'm concerned about the Tampa Bay area. Called my relatives yesterday and told them to get ready. There's not going to be a long preparation window with this one. Everyone on the Florida Gulf Coast needs to watch this one because a small shift in track will make a big difference in the landfall location because of the trajectory almost parallel to the west coast.

Folks in the entire Tampa Bay metro area need to get prepared NOW for an approaching hurricane. Also, as a reminder....always plan for a storm AT LEAST one category stronger than the forecast.

Amen to that. Remember Charley and Micheal? I'll never forget watching the rapid intensification as Charley approached landfall. I fear and hope that everyone from Fort Myers to the Big Bend is on their A game prepping for this one.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Dropsonde has 998 mb in 22 knot wind, so maybe around 995 or something? I don't do the knot/pressure conversion very well.

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgW2q.png
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgW2q.png

996.
Every 10 knts of wind is 1mb drop lower than the dropsonde reading. However, this is less accurate with weaker, more disorganized systems.

[Ianswfl]

I posted this in the Models thread last night...I'm concerned about the Tampa Bay area. Called my relatives yesterday and told them to get ready. There's not going to be a long preparation window with this one. Everyone on the Florida Gulf Coast needs to watch this one because a small shift in track will make a big difference in the landfall location because of the trajectory almost parallel to the west coast.

Folks in the entire Tampa Bay metro area need to get prepared NOW for an approaching hurricane. Also, as a reminder....always plan for a storm AT LEAST one category stronger than the forecast.

Amen to that. Remember Charley and Micheal? I'll never forget watching the rapid intensification as Charley approached landfall. I fear and hope that everyone from Fort Myers to the Big Bend is on their A game prepping for this one.

While places like ft. Myers, Punta gorda won't get the eyewall, these east shifts I can certainly see a case where we get 90mph gusts and maybe 6 foot surge. While it doesn't sound a lot it will be a huge setback to ian recovery. I'm thinking it will be like miami in irma wind wise here. Sustained 65 with gusts 85 to 90

[HurricaneBelle]

This is a great tweet. Forget the cone - slavishly following that is almost as bad as following the black line.

It's all about impacts:

 https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1695829942418772068

[cheezyWXguy]

Dropsonde has 998 mb in 22 knot wind, so maybe around 995 or something? I don't do the knot/pressure conversion very well.

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgW2q.png
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgW2q.png

That’s a center drop? Isn’t that v signature in the T/Td profile more like what you’d see in a system clearing out an eye, rather than an exposed llc, or is this just more common than I realize?

[Iceresistance]

Dropsonde has 998 mb in 22 knot wind, so maybe around 995 or something? I don't do the knot/pressure conversion very well.

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgW2q.png
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgW2q.png

That’s a center drop? Isn’t that v signature in the T/Td profile more like what you’d see in a system clearing out an eye, rather than an exposed llc, or is this just more common than I realize?

It is, a little NE of Dropsonde #3 that was in the CoC.

[Mob1]

From the last few frames, it looks like the eastern progression has slowed significantly. It should meander a bit more before moving north.

[Iceresistance]

Circulation is moving east and turning to the north


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgWSG.gif