ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

It's funny how it looked better on Satellite yesterday afternoon and we had a hard time getting it to be called a depression. And yet it doesn't look that good on satellite this morning and is classified as a storm. Guess it just shows that appearances aren't everything.......

[dukeblue219]

I'm all for the whole W coast of Florida being on alert, but I think it's worth mentioning that a 50 mile jog E now (hypothetically) does not inherently mean the whole forecast track moves 50 mile E. The medium-term steering that will determine landfall for this storm will still do its thing, and those factors haven't magically shifted by 50 miles across the whole of the Gulf.

[Poonwalker]

Hafs shows a minimal cat 3 hitting Citus county near Crystal River. That would be around a 10 ft storm surge.

[johngaltfla]

I'm all for the whole W coast of Florida being on alert, but I think it's worth mentioning that a 50 mile jog E now (hypothetically) does not inherently mean the whole forecast track moves 50 mile E. The medium-term steering that will determine landfall for this storm will still do its thing, and those factors haven't magically shifted by 50 miles across the whole of the Gulf.

It's not so much the track, it's the impacts. The surge will be higher, wind damage (tornado risk) upgraded, and larger rain amounts in a drought stricken area which would invite flash flooding. Aka, the Suncoast.

[Iceresistance]

ASCAT direct hit


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgWzx.png

[NDG]

Not sure if anybody noticed the VDM has the wrong coordinates.

URNT12 KWBC 271632
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL102023
A. 27/15:42:33Z
B. 20.51 deg N 086.01 deg W
C. 700 MB 3118 m
D. 998 mb
E. 155 deg 22 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 18 kt
I. 342 deg 17 nm 15:38:38Z
J. 043 deg 19 kt
K. 339 deg 12 nm 15:39:48Z
L. NA
M. NA
N. 238 deg 40 kt
O. 154 deg 91 nm 16:04:37Z
P. 12 C / 3064 m
Q. 12 C / 3064 m
R. 11 C / NA
S. 134 / 7
T. 0.01 / 2 nm
U. NOAA3 0110A CYCLONE OB 12
MAX FL WIND 41 KT 232 / 46 NM 14:36:57Z
MAX FL TEMP 15 C 150 / 40 NM FROM FL CNTR

[Iceresistance]

Not sure if anybody noticed the VDM has the wrong coordinates.

URNT12 KWBC 271632
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL102023
A. 27/15:42:33Z
B. 20.51 deg N 086.01 deg W
C. 700 MB 3118 m
D. 998 mb
E. 155 deg 22 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 18 kt
I. 342 deg 17 nm 15:38:38Z
J. 043 deg 19 kt
K. 339 deg 12 nm 15:39:48Z
L. NA
M. NA
N. 238 deg 40 kt
O. 154 deg 91 nm 16:04:37Z
P. 12 C / 3064 m
Q. 12 C / 3064 m
R. 11 C / NA
S. 134 / 7
T. 0.01 / 2 nm
U. NOAA3 0110A CYCLONE OB 12
MAX FL WIND 41 KT 232 / 46 NM 14:36:57Z
MAX FL TEMP 15 C 150 / 40 NM FROM FL CNTR

I did, I thought they would correct it eventually

[NDG]

Better beach day in Cancun today as they are in a dry slot, winds picking up some but waves only look 1-2 feet.

https://www.hardrockhotels.com/cancun/webcam.aspx

[cycloneye]

Important piece of history here.

 https://twitter.com/Jacob_Feuer/status/1695819786511393108

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/craigsetzer/status/1695841338388853093

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/bmcnoldy/status/1695848627690746054

[Craters]

Based on the pressure recon found, I think this should be named yesterday.

Okay, but then you'd be skipping all the letters between "H" and "Y"...

[LandoWill]

With the 12z GFS, i would expect a slight... west nudging of the cone

[NDG]

With the 12z GFS, i would expect a slight... west nudging of the cone

Only if the consensus TVCN moves west.

[BobHarlem]

With the 12z GFS, i would expect a slight... west nudging of the cone

Doubt they change the track much if at all at 5pm. 12z GFS init point was about 60 miles wnw of where recon actually pegged it. 18z and especially 0z runs with recon data may be a bit better, but GFS has had a historically west bias in this area. Even so the 12z GFS shifted slightly right from 6z (From around Apalachicola to about St. Marks).

If I was along anywhere from Sarasota north into PCB that could be impacted by surge I wouldn't mess around.

[CronkPSU]

With the 12z GFS, i would expect a slight... west nudging of the cone

newest run was east of the previous run, wasn't it? and the 11AM discussion said their path may need to move further east

[chaser1]

Based on the pressure recon found, I think this should be named yesterday.

Okay, but then you'd be skipping all the letters between "H" and "Y"...

THAT's funny! Not sure many caught that

[Poonwalker]

With the 12z GFS, i would expect a slight... west nudging of the cone

Yeah they did shift west but with a stronger storm overall. Does anybody know if the 12z runs have the latest dropsonde data? Or is that going in the 18 runs.

[hipshot]

Based on the pressure recon found, I think this should be named yesterday.

Okay, but then you'd be skipping all the letters between "H" and "Y"...

THAT's funny! Not sure many caught that

I did but that poster said it a lot better than me.

[skillz305]

With the 12z GFS, i would expect a slight... west nudging of the cone

Yeah they did shift west but with a stronger storm overall. Does anybody know if the 12z runs have the latest dropsonde data? Or is that going in the 18 runs.

18z. Everything else before is deemed pre-mature.