ATL: IDALIA - Models

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NDG
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#401 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 27, 2023 12:09 pm

18z Hurricane models will be interesting.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#402 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 27, 2023 12:10 pm

HAFS models out through 60 hours look to be stronger and have shifted a bit more west. HAFS-A below:

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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#403 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Aug 27, 2023 12:18 pm

HWRF considerably further East south of Cuba at 24 hours.


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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#404 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 27, 2023 12:20 pm

HAFS-B 12z run back to a Cat 4 at landfall.

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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#405 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 27, 2023 12:27 pm

So far the 12z HWRF track is very similar to its earlier 06z run, just a difference in timing.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#406 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Aug 27, 2023 12:29 pm

NDG wrote:So far the 12z HWRF track is very similar to its earlier 06z run, just a difference in timing.

Agreed… it appears to be back on track with the 06z, whereas due to the timing at the 24 hour mark it looked like it was well east of the 06z.


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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#407 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 27, 2023 12:31 pm

12Z NAVGEM shifts way east with landfall around Punta Gorda, not too strong though:

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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#408 Postby LandoWill » Sun Aug 27, 2023 12:32 pm


gfs has been consistently west this entire time. So maybe it's more right than wrong. Hopefully for our case here in pasco county they are correct.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#409 Postby jfk08c » Sun Aug 27, 2023 12:40 pm

LandoWill wrote:

gfs has been consistently west this entire time. So maybe it's more right than wrong. Hopefully for our case here in pasco county they are correct.


I hate to tell you but guess what model was "consistently west" with Ian the entire time then ended up caving back east last minute after screwing up consensus?

Like I said earlier, I won't trust GFS until it can prove it's got it's act together
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#410 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Aug 27, 2023 12:44 pm

jfk08c wrote:
LandoWill wrote:

gfs has been consistently west this entire time. So maybe it's more right than wrong. Hopefully for our case here in pasco county they are correct.


I hate to tell you but guess what model was "consistently west" with Ian the entire time then ended up caving back east last minute after screwing up consensus?

Like I said earlier, I won't trust GFS until it can prove it's got it's act together
Nhc was consistently west too
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#411 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 27, 2023 12:48 pm

12Z PRE-RECON as far as I know.

HWRF
Image

HMON
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HAFS-A
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HAFS-B
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#412 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 27, 2023 12:49 pm

All of the 12Z hurricane models shifted west and are close to the NHC track.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#413 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 27, 2023 12:49 pm

Big shift to the west by the HWRF at landfall.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#414 Postby Spacecoast » Sun Aug 27, 2023 12:51 pm

HWRF Trend
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#415 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 27, 2023 12:53 pm

Notable shift east already on the 12Z Euro rolling now. Loop of 0 and 24 hour frames below. Comparison of the high-res 06Z Euro shows the shift (not shown):

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Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Aug 27, 2023 12:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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ATL: IDALIA - Models

#416 Postby MJGarrison » Sun Aug 27, 2023 12:55 pm

gatorcane wrote:Notable shift east already on the 12Z Euro rolling now. Loop of 0 and 24 hour frames below.

Image

That shift is from 24 hours ago rather than from 6 hours ago like the other models.


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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#417 Postby Cat5James » Sun Aug 27, 2023 12:57 pm

MJGarrison wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Notable shift east already on the 12Z Euro rolling now. Loop of 0 and 24 hour frames below.

https://i.postimg.cc/x82HgBrx/ec-fast-uv850-vort-watl-fh0-24.gif

That shift is from 24 hours ago rather than from 6 hours ago like the other models.


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Still a large eastward shift. 00z Euro did not show Idalia tracking that close to W Cuba
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#418 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 27, 2023 12:57 pm

MJGarrison wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Notable shift east already on the 12Z Euro rolling now. Loop of 0 and 24 hour frames below.

https://i.postimg.cc/x82HgBrx/ec-fast-uv850-vort-watl-fh0-24.gif

That shift is from 24 hours ago rather than from 6 hours ago like the other models.


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Here is the 06Z frame at the same timeframe and the 12Z is more east:

Image
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#419 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 27, 2023 1:02 pm

One thing for sure the 12z Euro is running stronger on this run. NHC will have no option but to go up on winds on their next advisory for landfall.

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Last edited by NDG on Sun Aug 27, 2023 1:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#420 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 27, 2023 1:04 pm

Quite a notable shift east on the Euro at 48 hours also.

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