ATL: IDALIA - Models

[AtlanticWind]

Quite a notable shift east on the Euro at 48 hours also.

https://i.postimg.cc/tgm7YwCZ/ec-fast-uv850-vort-seus-3.png

Trough appears deeper on this run

[gatorcane]

Big shift east on the 12Z Euro. Does it have any plane data? Nearly landfalls in the Tampa area:

[NDG]

[IcyTundra]

:eek: Big shift east on the 12Z Euro. Does it have any plane data? Nearly landfalls in the Tampa area:

https://i.postimg.cc/155xjtKS/ec-fast-ow850-seus-fh0-72.gif

I don’t think so 18z will be the first runs with recon data.

[BobHarlem]

Really going to need the in between frames on the euro there, that 12z looks east into like Spring Hill.

[cycloneye]

Big shift east on the 12Z Euro. Does it have any plane data? Nearly landfalls in the Tampa area:


https://i.postimg.cc/155xjtKS/ec-fast-ow850-seus-fh0-72.gif

The 18z run will have it with plane flying now at high altitude.

[SFLcane]

[LarryWx]

Euro landfalls in SE portion of Big Bend near 980 mb.

[Spacecoast]

12z GEFS....

[BobHarlem]

12z Euro rapidly strengthening Cat 2 on this frame (was 992mb 16 hours earlier), goes in around Cedar Key, probably a little stronger than this frame. Tampa would see some impacts on this run.

[NDG]

Landfall near Cedar Key, the NHC will split the difference between it and GFS. Current NHC track looks good to me.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z Euro exits the GA coast ~50 miles S of Savannah (~center of GA coast) at ~989 mb

[BobHarlem]

The 12Z Euro exits the GA coast ~50 miles S of Savannah (~center of GA coast) at ~989 mb

Franklin (not direct but dirty side of eye) and Idalia both hit Bermuda on the 12z euro.

[pgoss11]

The 12Z Euro exits the GA coast ~50 miles S of Savannah (~center of GA coast) at ~989 mb

Any fujiwara effect with Franklin if this happens?

[Ianswfl]

Landfall near Cedar Key, the NHC will split the difference between it and GFS. Current NHC track looks good to me.

https://i.imgur.com/upCMgbI.gif

On that run would require hurricane warnings for southwest fl if it's a strong enough system. We'd have hurricane gusts in that path and some surge issues.

[gatorcane]

Notable east shift by the Canadian ensembles:

[CourierPR]

:double:

https://i.postimg.cc/cJtq4ZCj/IMG-7518.gif

Say what?

[Ivanhater]

18Z still in excellent agreement on the big bend. Overall, the blend of models has not changed over the last couple of days.



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[Ianswfl]

Notable east shift by the Canadian ensembles:

https://i.postimg.cc/vmZqMqmS/gem-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh0-72.gif

I see a few sarasota, bradenton, ft. Myers members there!

[gatorcane]

18Z still in excellent agreement on the big bend. Overall, the blend of models has not changed over the last couple of days.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230827/f528f8def87ff8df2c3906f04d449ba2.jpg

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I don’t believe that has the latest Euro run yet as it hasn’t finished running?