2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[LarryWx]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694334971173884135

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694336352039436601

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694337523164532857

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694339657192923353

Here's the daily bustcast by Andy.

It's a shame this guy is a pro met (is he?)...I'm not sure the atmospheric sciences (or any sciences) are his cup of tea given his obvious subjectivity, bias, and opinion present in his Tweets.
He's just looking for more followers/clicks. "Feelings" have no place in this arena.

Hopefully he isn't issuing any products that people are actually depending on for safety.

He's a pro and probably pretty good. I started this so I apologize, I didn't want to bash a pro met, but instead point out that tweeting non objective analysis as a pro can be a bad look.

He's the opposite of Joe Bastardi, who's often overly bullish.

[Edwards Limestone]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694334971173884135

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694336352039436601

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694337523164532857

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694339657192923353

Here's the daily bustcast by Andy.

It's a shame this guy is a pro met (is he?)...I'm not sure the atmospheric sciences (or any sciences) are his cup of tea given his obvious subjectivity, bias, and opinion present in his Tweets.
He's just looking for more followers/clicks. "Feelings" have no place in this arena.

Hopefully he isn't issuing any products that people are actually depending on for safety.

He's a pro and probably pretty good. I started this so I apologize, I didn't want to bash a pro met, but instead point out that tweeting non objective analysis as a pro can be a bad look.

I agree he can be good. Problem is that he lets his Twitter be his opinion mouthpiece so we'd never know how good/bad.

The recurring "season cancelled" posts by him have gotten extremely tiresome over the past few seasons.

[cycloneye]

This topic has turned to not discussing the indicators as September is around the corner to quote a person many times, but if the peeps post without bringing his messages, it would be better. Is very simple.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1694670959221862647

[ScottNAtlanta]

Don't look now...but we might be seeing Gert 2.0 moving into the Caribbean where conditions are not as bad. It still has a vigorous LLC and convection has been firing today off to the south of the center

[Category5Kaiju]

Between Franklin now getting its act together, 93L about to travel across the super hot Gulf, and more rumblings of storms in the horizon, I think season cancel season has ended. Oh, and forget 2013. As if that ever even mattered in the first place.

[zzzh]

[Ntxw]

To follow up on prior posts the window of opportunity for the Atlantic remains open, sub-seasonal. The rising motion has been consistent and will remain pretty good until the second week of Sept (~10th or so) over the IO-MC then out to the Pacific it will constructively interfere with ENSO event. It hasn't been a coincidence the flurry of activity has been within this movement of the forcing.

[NDG]

This will be a season to learn from, after seeing how much the storms that have formed over the past few days have struggled and that the forecasted "better" UL environment keeps being pushed past 7 days I am very confident that there is no way ACE will be above average this season, it may not even get close to average.
El Nino is the bigger Elephant in the room despite a record warm Atlantic/GOM, lower windshear compared to previous El Ninos and early season activity over the MDR.
I am to the point I don't want to believe the models' forecasted strength for a system past 2-3 days, they keep busting. And definitely climate models' forecast over did it early in the season. I hope I am not jinxing it

I have never eaten crow so quick in my life before, I definitely jinxed it by letting Andy Hazelton change my mind that the Atlantic was not going to become conducive for tropical systems to strengthen, lol.
The long awaited UL easterlies across the Caribbean are here and the elephant in the room has left at least over the next couple of weeks.

[Teban54]

Regardless of 93L's fate, it's surreal that we're witnessing a CAG-like genesis in the Western Caribbean after the system was pulled north from EPAC, and the concurrent demise of an EPAC invest 91E right next to it, in August of an El Nino year.

Normally, one would have assumed the Caribbean would be shut down with Nino shear, and development in EPAC would be favored in this region.

[captainbarbossa19]

https://i.imgur.com/hauQCMw.jpg

And suddenly, the SAL is no longer a major problem. Late August can do wonders.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1695166260605001840

[Category5Kaiju]

With Franklin now a Category 2 hurricane, 2023 has officially destroyed any potential comparisons with 2013.

[WalterWhite]

Alright, it has been a while since I spoke here, but I am absolutely astonished that the Atlantic is producing an above-average season despite the Nino 3.4 SSTA being over 1.5 C. An above-average Atlantic hurricane season with a strong El Nino? A near-average Atlantic hurricane season (2022) with a La Nina? What is this?

[IcyTundra]

Alright, it has been a while since I spoke here, but I am absolutely astonished that the Atlantic is producing an above-average season despite the Nino 3.4 SSTA being over 1.5 C. An above-average Atlantic hurricane season with a strong El Nino? A near-average Atlantic hurricane season (2022) with a La Nina? What is this?

Maybe ENSO isn’t as important as we have been led to believe. Perhaps there are certain factors that play a big role in hurricane season that we don’t fully understand yet.

[WalterWhite]

This is truly terrifying to watch. The Atlantic is extremely warm, which is driving this hurricane season. El Niños tend to warm the Atlantic because of the sinking air they induce over the Atlantic. Moreover, double-peak El Niños are rare. The Atlantic in 2024 is likely to be warmer than it is right now, and combined with a La Niña, 2024 could absolutely be a terrifying beast of an Atlantic hurricane season.

[Steve]

I don’t care about intensity. If a system gets classified by the pros, it’s classified. I storm in August. I don’t know the records but it’s got to be top 3 fastest to I. I still don’t think it’s going to be a hyper year but we might use up a lot of letters.

[REDHurricane]

Alright, it has been a while since I spoke here, but I am absolutely astonished that the Atlantic is producing an above-average season despite the Nino 3.4 SSTA being over 1.5 C. An above-average Atlantic hurricane season with a strong El Nino? A near-average Atlantic hurricane season (2022) with a La Nina? What is this?

Maybe ENSO isn’t as important as we have been led to believe. Perhaps there are certain factors that play a big role in hurricane season that we don’t fully understand yet.

I've kind of been thinking this as well -- it seems fairly unlikely to me that the SST of an arbitrary rectangle in the middle of the Pacific ocean would have a significant causal effect on something as multivariable as the Atlantic hurricane season. There definitely seems to be a decent correlation, but I'd guess that the atmosphere/climate/weather as a whole are far too complex to definitively assert that a warmer than average equatorial Pacific will be able to limit the Atlantic from producing tropical cyclones for six months out of the year

[WalterWhite]

Alright, it has been a while since I spoke here, but I am absolutely astonished that the Atlantic is producing an above-average season despite the Nino 3.4 SSTA being over 1.5 C. An above-average Atlantic hurricane season with a strong El Nino? A near-average Atlantic hurricane season (2022) with a La Nina? What is this?

Maybe ENSO isn’t as important as we have been led to believe. Perhaps there are certain factors that play a big role in hurricane season that we don’t fully understand yet.

I've kind of been thinking this as well -- it seems fairly unlikely to me that the SST of an arbitrary rectangle in the middle of the Pacific ocean would have a significant causal effect on something as multivariable as the Atlantic hurricane season. There definitely seems to be a decent correlation, but I'd guess that the atmosphere/climate/weather as a whole are far too complex to definitively assert that a warmer than average equatorial Pacific will be able to limit the Atlantic from producing tropical cyclones for six months out of the year

It is not just the Nino 3.4 that is above-average. The entire equatorial Eastern and Central Pacific is above-average. This is about a clear of an El Niño as you can get, yet this season is already turning out to be above-average in terms of storm count. It is breaking even with climatology regarding ACE at the moment, but we have not had any major hurricanes yet, so I expect that to change, too. We have not had a below-average season since 2015. Are below-average seasons a thing of the past?

[Zonacane]

Alright, it has been a while since I spoke here, but I am absolutely astonished that the Atlantic is producing an above-average season despite the Nino 3.4 SSTA being over 1.5 C. An above-average Atlantic hurricane season with a strong El Nino? A near-average Atlantic hurricane season (2022) with a La Nina? What is this?

I believe the EPAC had a +PMM/PDO last year, but I don't entirely remember. This year the EPAC has a stout -PDO/PMM inducing subsidence and shear over the EPAC MDR. I think it highlights how important a role both play and how they should be looked at when trying to gauge what the Atlantic hurricane season will look like.