ATL: IDALIA - Models

[Ivanhater]

18Z still in excellent agreement on the big bend. Overall, the blend of models has not changed over the last couple of days.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230827/f528f8def87ff8df2c3906f04d449ba2.jpg

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I don’t believe that has the latest Euro run yet as it hasn’t finished running?

The Euro is still very close to the blend. Big bend

[otowntiger]

18Z still in excellent agreement on the big bend. Overall, the blend of models has not changed over the last couple of days.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230827/f528f8def87ff8df2c3906f04d449ba2.jpg

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I don’t believe that has the latest Euro run yet as it hasn’t finished running?

The Euro is still very close to the blend. Big bend

.

Agreed. I think the time has come that any big shifts in the official forecast are over. Minor tweaks right or left from this point forward are likely all we’ll see, in just my humble non met opinion of course.

[skillz305]

I don’t believe that has the latest Euro run yet as it hasn’t finished running?

The Euro is still very close to the blend. Big bend

.

Agreed. I think the time has come that any big shifts in the official forecast are over. Minor tweaks right or left from this point forward are likely all we’ll see, in just my humble non met opinion of course.

No recon data are input to the models til the 18z. Seeing some more east tracks on the guidance is a telling sign.

[gatorcane]

18Z still in excellent agreement on the big bend. Overall, the blend of models has not changed over the last couple of days.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230827/f528f8def87ff8df2c3906f04d449ba2.jpg

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I don’t believe that has the latest Euro run yet as it hasn’t finished running?

The Euro is still very close to the blend. Big bend

Euro is hitting Cedar Key now with a notable shift east. That TT graphic looks a little off. The black line is too far east. This graphic looks more accurate and even without the least Euro which should bring TVCN more east, the TVCN is a little east of the red NHC track so it is possible the NHC might nudge the track slightly east again for the 5pm. What I am watching closely is how close this storm might get to the metro Tampa area and the west coast of Florida:

[Full8s]

I always get mixed up; the 18Z is 2pm eastern or am I crazy?

[Iceresistance]

I always get mixed up; the 18Z is 2pm eastern or am I crazy?

Yes, 18z is 2 PM EDT

[blp]

TVCN

[tolakram]

GFS 18Z starts coming in at 5:35PM EDT. The hurricane models follow since they are all based on the GFS in one way or another.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro landfall

[chris_fit]

Eyeballing it but 12z EPS looks like an E shift to me.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z Euro track looks to have 70+ mph wind gusts along coastal Pinellas and points north Tuesday night with close to 100mph further offshore.

[jlauderdal]

GFS 18Z starts coming in at 5:35PM EDT. The hurricane models follow since they are all based on the GFS in one way or another.

Gfs happy hour...it was slow on the genesis, it didnt pickup on the southerly movement and its been inconsistent, maybe its right but i will take a pass for now...euro has a better idea

[caneman]

GFS 18Z starts coming in at 5:35PM EDT. The hurricane models follow since they are all based on the GFS in one way or another.

Gfs happy hour...it was slow on the genesis, it didnt pickup on the southerly movement and its been inconsistent, maybe its right but i will take a pass for now...euro has a better idea

Agree and I'm usually a big GFS guy

[gatorcane]

Eyeballing it but 12z EPS looks like an E shift to me.

Yes looks that way with also some hurricanes through or near the Tampa area:

[chaser1]

GFS 18Z starts coming in at 5:35PM EDT. The hurricane models follow since they are all based on the GFS in one way or another.

Gfs happy hour...it was slow on the genesis, it didnt pickup on the southerly movement and its been inconsistent, maybe its right but i will take a pass for now...euro has a better idea

Agree and I'm usually a big GFS guy

Add me to that list

[jfk08c]

I don’t believe that has the latest Euro run yet as it hasn’t finished running?

The Euro is still very close to the blend. Big bend

.

Agreed. I think the time has come that any big shifts in the official forecast are over. Minor tweaks right or left from this point forward are likely all we’ll see, in just my humble non met opinion of course.

Ian went from skirting the coasting and going Big Bend to cutting through the entire state in 1 day. Wouldn't say they're over

[chaser1]

.... don't get me wrong, the GFS is still my "go-to" inside of 24 hr's

[Spacecoast]

12z vs 06z:

[jlauderdal]

.... don't get me wrong, the GFS is still my "go-to" inside of 24 hr's

The gfs has plenty of wins but based on the resources applied to developing and "improving it", it should be doing better.

[Blown Away]

GFS 18Z starts coming in at 5:35PM EDT. The hurricane models follow since they are all based on the GFS in one way or another.

Gfs happy hour...it was slow on the genesis, it didnt pickup on the southerly movement and its been inconsistent, maybe its right but i will take a pass for now...euro has a better idea

I’m still stuck b/c GFS continues to be the left of the globals and it’s a right bias model… It’s never been right being the left global outlier.