2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[Category5Kaiju]

Maybe ENSO isn’t as important as we have been led to believe. Perhaps there are certain factors that play a big role in hurricane season that we don’t fully understand yet.

I've kind of been thinking this as well -- it seems fairly unlikely to me that the SST of an arbitrary rectangle in the middle of the Pacific ocean would have a significant causal effect on something as multivariable as the Atlantic hurricane season. There definitely seems to be a decent correlation, but I'd guess that the atmosphere/climate/weather as a whole are far too complex to definitively assert that a warmer than average equatorial Pacific will be able to limit the Atlantic from producing tropical cyclones for six months out of the year

It is not just the Nino 3.4 that is above-average. The entire equatorial Eastern and Central Pacific is above-average. This is about a clear of an El Niño as you can get, yet this season is already turning out to be above-average in terms of storm count. It is breaking even with climatology regarding ACE at the moment, but we have not had any major hurricanes yet, so I expect that to change, too. We have not had a below-average season since 2015. Are below-average seasons a thing of the past?

If current trends continue, then at some point in the future, a season like 2022 with 95 ACE and 14/8/2 will be considered as "below average" rather than "near average." I think the cutoff will be different

[Ntxw]

I've kind of been thinking this as well -- it seems fairly unlikely to me that the SST of an arbitrary rectangle in the middle of the Pacific ocean would have a significant causal effect on something as multivariable as the Atlantic hurricane season. There definitely seems to be a decent correlation, but I'd guess that the atmosphere/climate/weather as a whole are far too complex to definitively assert that a warmer than average equatorial Pacific will be able to limit the Atlantic from producing tropical cyclones for six months out of the year

It is not just the Nino 3.4 that is above-average. The entire equatorial Eastern and Central Pacific is above-average. This is about a clear of an El Niño as you can get, yet this season is already turning out to be above-average in terms of storm count. It is breaking even with climatology regarding ACE at the moment, but we have not had any major hurricanes yet, so I expect that to change, too. We have not had a below-average season since 2015. Are below-average seasons a thing of the past?

If current trends continue, then at some point in the future, a season like 2022 with 95 ACE and 14/8/2 will be considered as "below average" rather than "near average." I think the cutoff will be different

This is very true as the oceans continue to warm. Averages are moving and all basins are experiencing increases. Extended and displaced seasons will also play a role.

[weeniepatrol]

It is not just the Nino 3.4 that is above-average. The entire equatorial Eastern and Central Pacific is above-average. This is about a clear of an El Niño as you can get, yet this season is already turning out to be above-average in terms of storm count. It is breaking even with climatology regarding ACE at the moment, but we have not had any major hurricanes yet, so I expect that to change, too. We have not had a below-average season since 2015. Are below-average seasons a thing of the past?

If current trends continue, then at some point in the future, a season like 2022 with 95 ACE and 14/8/2 will be considered as "below average" rather than "near average." I think the cutoff will be different

This is very true as the oceans continue to warm. Averages are moving and all basins are experiencing increases. Extended and displaced seasons will also play a role.

I'd be very interested to see some research on natural variability like El Nino, and how it becomes attenuated and/or modulated by background climate change forcing. Eventually, this forcing may become dominant and foreground, completely overriding phenomenona like El Nino entirely in terms of importance in seasonal forecasting.

In other words, just as an example, maybe stronger El Ninos will no longer suppress the Atlantic to the same extent in the future (that does not mean zero suppression). Complete conjecture though.

[Ntxw]

If current trends continue, then at some point in the future, a season like 2022 with 95 ACE and 14/8/2 will be considered as "below average" rather than "near average." I think the cutoff will be different

This is very true as the oceans continue to warm. Averages are moving and all basins are experiencing increases. Extended and displaced seasons will also play a role.

I'd be very interested to see some research on natural variability like El Nino, and how it becomes attenuated and/or modulated by background climate change forcing. Eventually, this forcing may become dominant and foreground, completely overriding phenomenona like El Nino entirely in terms of importance in seasonal forecasting.

In other words, just as an example, maybe stronger El Ninos will no longer suppress the Atlantic to the same extent in the future (that does not mean zero suppression). Complete conjecture though.

All viable points. As the warmth moves further north, perhaps MDR effects (where ENSO can often be felt most) are less reliant and we see hurricanes exist in a new zone mid latitudes in greater numbers. Subsequently La Nina becoming weird and not favorable. Just thoughts, nothing concrete, we simply don't know yet with sample size small in this newer era of warmth.

[weeniepatrol]

This is very true as the oceans continue to warm. Averages are moving and all basins are experiencing increases. Extended and displaced seasons will also play a role.

I'd be very interested to see some research on natural variability like El Nino, and how it becomes attenuated and/or modulated by background climate change forcing. Eventually, this forcing may become dominant and foreground, completely overriding phenomenona like El Nino entirely in terms of importance in seasonal forecasting.

In other words, just as an example, maybe stronger El Ninos will no longer suppress the Atlantic to the same extent in the future (that does not mean zero suppression). Complete conjecture though.

All viable points. As the warmth moves further north, perhaps MDR effects (where ENSO can often be felt most) are less reliant and we see hurricanes exist in a new zone mid latitudes in greater numbers. Subsequently La Nina becoming weird and not favorable. Just thoughts, nothing concrete, we simply don't know yet with sample size small in this newer era of warmth.

One mode of climate change forcing we already observe in the Atlantic is heights creeping ever higher, which could lead to higher surface pressures and lower humidities throughout the air column.

I suspect this (hadley cell expansion) is a big reason for seasons becoming increasingly "backloaded" with a little bit less activity in August than we used to see.







It feels like now, we have to wait for this "lid" to come off (heights to lower as per climatology beginning in August thru Fall) before the season begins in earnest. All very fascinating stuff

[weeniepatrol]

ALSO, huge props to CSU and NOAA for adjusting numbers up in spite of the strengthening moderate-to-strong El Nino. This is why they are the best of the best.

We have been in peak season for one week. There are about seven weeks of peak season remaining.

We have already had two Caribbean geneses. One of them (Franklin) is well on its way to becoming a major, and the other (Idalia) is forecast to become a hurricane.

Just what we all expected during moderate-to-strong El Nino, right?

REMINDER: IT IS STILL ONLY AUGUST!!!!!!!!!

[WalterWhite]

So nature is telling me that third-year La Niñas are less favorable for Atlantic activity than strong El Niños?

[Ntxw]

So nature is telling me that third-year La Niñas are less favorable for Atlantic activity than strong El Niños?

Not necessarily, we won't know until this season is finished. For all we know activity may wane once the vp anomalies move back to the Pacific and not return until October and it's too late. Or there could be a flurry of activity against all odds and finish strong. The point of the discussion is that our fundamental understanding of ENSO and its global effects are changing in a warming climate, specifically warming SSTs globally.

[tolakram]

So nature is telling me that third-year La Niñas are less favorable for Atlantic activity than strong El Niños?

I see it in pretty simple terms. Pattern changes are more favorable than stagnant patterns. I don't see this year as being unusual because I see everything in terms of odds. Flip to el nino, pattern change +%. Very good conditions in the Atlantic except for el nino, and right now el nino shear has not been as bad as typically expected (neutral to slightly negative).

I think we've become a little too addicted to SOMETHING OUTRAGEOUS IS HAPPENING.

[Teban54]

So we went from "no way the season ends up above average, models show crickets" to "why is this season so active" in 2 weeks.

[weeniepatrol]

So we went from "no way the season ends up above average, models show crickets" to "why is this season so active" in 2 weeks.

Just like every other season ever

So nature is telling me that third-year La Niñas are less favorable for Atlantic activity than strong El Niños?

I see it in pretty simple terms. Pattern changes are more favorable than stagnant patterns. I don't see this year as being unusual because I see everything in terms of odds. Flip to el nino, pattern change +%. Very good conditions in the Atlantic except for el nino, and right now el nino shear has not been as bad as typically expected (neutral to slightly negative).

I think we've become a little too addicted to SOMETHING OUTRAGEOUS IS HAPPENING.

El Nino atmosphere component is CLEARLY completely absent. Look at this - upper-level flow is easterly from Africa to Nino 3.4!!

[al78]

Regarding El Nino and its influence on the hurricane season, it is arguably more to do with the difference in SST between the Atlantic and the E Pacific rather than the strength of El Nino alone. It is this difference in SST that feeds back on the atmosphere and leads to a perturbation in the Walker circulation, which leads to increased trade wind speed and increased upper level westerlies (aka increased vertical wind shear). This year we have very warm Atlantic SSTs which may be countering the classical effect of El Nino on the Walker circulation so the increased vertical wind shear and reduced vorticity over the Atlantic MDR isn't there. This is why models and seasonal forecast agencies went for favourable conditions and an active or hyperactive season.

One thing that has been standard this year is the Atlantic and East Pacific hurricane seasons acting in opposition. The quiet period in the Atlantic during July and the first half of August was very active in the East Pacific. Now the Atlantic has sprung into life the East Pacific activity has died down some.

[jlauderdal]

So we went from "no way the season ends up above average, models show crickets" to "why is this season so active" in 2 weeks.

Its an annual occurrence; we get some early season activity, which quiets down 4th of july through early august and then its season cancel.

[SFLcane]

Just putting this out there... Should i get my supplies lol

[SFLcane]

I have been very skeptical of this but wow they nailed it.

[REDHurricane]

Just putting this out there... Should i get my supplies lol

https://i.postimg.cc/bvDnm7cs/jjjj.png

[SFLcane]

Just putting this out there... Should i get my supplies lol

https://i.postimg.cc/bvDnm7cs/jjjj.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023082718/gfs_z850_vort_atl_49.png

Been very skeptical of the LRC but dam look at the dates on the eps

[tolakram]

I have been very skeptical of this but wow they nailed it.

https://i.postimg.cc/y63P66jp/jjjj.png

Complete BS in my opinion. Make up some dates and if a storm happens, NAILED IT. That is not verification.

[SFLcane]

I have been very skeptical of this but wow they nailed it.

https://i.postimg.cc/y63P66jp/jjjj.png

Complete BS in my opinion. Make up some dates and if a storm happens, NAILED IT. That is not verification.

Call it what you want those maps were made in march. Guess they got lucky not once but two times now this season. Maybe they get lucky again In Sept.

[toad strangler]

I have been very skeptical of this but wow they nailed it.

https://i.postimg.cc/y63P66jp/jjjj.png

Complete BS in my opinion. Make up some dates and if a storm happens, NAILED IT. That is not verification.

Call it what you want those maps were made in march. Guess they got lucky not once but two times now this season. Maybe they get lucky again In Sept.

That's like old school Farmers Almanac stuff right there lol. A gillion years ago growing up in the NE we couldn't wait to see when a blizzard was coming when tha Almanac came out. 7 months before