ATL: IDALIA - Models
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
Don't expect quick intensification over the next 18-24 hrs or so, the Euro is still persistent in windshear getting low enough for quick intensification for at least 36 hrs before making landfall in a moist environment and over 30-31F SSTs.
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
GFS Trend.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
GFS more in line with the Hurricane models now taking it over the Western tip of Cuba.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
Still shoots NW after the loop.
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M a r k
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
Run so far
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
Yikes GFS way stronger and RI'ing on approach to FL. Down to 963 MB with plenty of time left to strengthen.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
963 at 54 hours!?!? 
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Just like Jon Snow..."I know nothing" except what I know, and most of what I know is gathered by the fine people of the NHC
Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
GFs noticeably east so far and ridge east of Florida not stretching as far north thru 54 hours
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
This is the first GFS run with all the recon data from this morning inputted.....
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
Trending faster and stronger.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
By Franklin tracking further west than forecasted earlier is definitely preventing the Caribbean ridge from building a narrow nose over the Bahamas that far north.
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SconnieCane
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
18Z GFS with the casual 2MB/hr pressure drops continuing for 24 hours straight. 
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
Big Bend of Florida this run.
Last edited by IcyTundra on Sun Aug 27, 2023 4:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
966 post landfall.
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
Just my opinion. GFS was W global outlier during Ian and kept that NHC track offshore into Big Bend. It’s happening again, the GFS is an east bias model, something will give and maybe it will be right this time. I’m betting it won’t.
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Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
Does anybody believe the brief NNW movement by the GFS after Western Cuba before going back N to NNE? If it were not for that, it would match the Euro track. Could see more east shifts by the GFS in subsequent runs.
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