ATL: IDALIA - Models

[IcyTundra]

Just my opinion. GFS was W global outlier during Ian and kept that NHC track offshore into Big Bend. It’s happening again, the GFS is an east bias model, something will give and maybe it will be right this time. I’m betting it won’t.

We will see every storm is different and the GFS could have a better handle on Idalia than it had on Ian.

[SunnyThoughts]

959 on a Global model is VERY concerning. Everybody needs to get their preparations done tomorrow.

[NDG]

Maybe a 15 miles shift to the east at landfall.

[Ianswfl]

Models coming into more agreement now. Imo the west shifts have stopped.

I'd go with landfall in Hernando county, 125mph

The hopeful thing would be a landfall way south like sarasota because it wouldn't have time to ramp up. Maybe just a 100mph storm but less damage and carnage versus a way north landfall and more time to ramp.

[chris_fit]

Does anybody believe the brief NNW movement by the GFS after Western Cuba before going back N to NNE? If it were not for that, it would match the Euro track. Could see more east shifts by the GFS in subsequent runs.

It's a funky move for sure! Almost like it forms a new center or something to the NW. Doesn't make any sense at the moment.

[tolakram]

If this is east of the GFS then will be over water, costal Carolinas need to keep an eye on this as well, GA too of course.

[tolakram]

Models coming into more agreement now. Imo the west shifts have stopped.

I'd go with landfall in Hernando county, 125mph

The hopeful thing would be a landfall way south like sarasota because it wouldn't have time to ramp up. Maybe just a 100mph storm but less damage and carnage versus a way north landfall and more time to ramp.

Where are you located?

[Blown Away]

Just my opinion. GFS was W global outlier during Ian and kept that NHC track offshore into Big Bend. It’s happening again, the GFS is an east bias model, something will give and maybe it will be right this time. I’m betting it won’t.

We will see every storm is different and the GFS could have a better handle on Idalia than it had on Ian.

Of course each storm is unique, but models have their bias and storms generally follow certain paths. Not luck the Big Bend, outside of Cedar Key, sees little to no hurricanes.

[NDG]

Maybe a 15 miles shift to the east at landfall.

Actually a good 30 miles shift to the east.

[Hurricaneman]

Maybe a 15 miles shift to the east at landfall.

Actually a good 30 miles shift to the east.

https://i.imgur.com/U9tnFrM.png

Thinking the GFS is adjusting to the east to join the other models. The other models though are adjusting east too so I wouldn’t be too comfy if I lived in the Tampa/St Pete area

[SouthFLTropics]

I'm of the mind that the NNW movement after Cuba on the GFS is very strange. It seriously brings into question the validity of the rest of the run.

[Blown Away]

Does anybody believe the brief NNW movement by the GFS after Western Cuba before going back N to NNE? If it were not for that, it would match the Euro track. Could see more east shifts by the GFS in subsequent runs.

GFS consistently showing that NW bump near Cuba, w/o it the track would be much farther E. That’s the adjustment the GFS might make in the next few runs or it’s right with a rare MH into Big Bend.

[BobHarlem]

18z Canadian similar landfall location as 18z GFs

[USTropics]

Does anybody believe the brief NNW movement by the GFS after Western Cuba before going back N to NNE? If it were not for that, it would match the Euro track. Could see more east shifts by the GFS in subsequent runs.

It's a funky move for sure! Almost like it forms a new center or something to the NW. Doesn't make any sense at the moment.

It's very subtle, but notice the extension of ridging over northern Cuba at 200mb on the GFS, this nudges Idalia every so subtly to the NW during this timeframe:


This feature does not exist on the 12z ECMWF operational at the same timeframe:


While it'll be easy to call the GFS solution crazy, I would caution against that. The 12z ECMWF ensembles had split camps on this scenario, so the GFS solution is definitely not out of the realm of possibility:


The difference is likely due to how the operational models handle Franklin. A stronger (and more westward) Franklin on the GFS vs ECMWF appears to create this extension of ridging through adiabatic processes.

[IcyTundra]

Does anybody believe the brief NNW movement by the GFS after Western Cuba before going back N to NNE? If it were not for that, it would match the Euro track. Could see more east shifts by the GFS in subsequent runs.

GFS consistently showing that NW bump near Cuba, w/o it the track would be much farther E. That’s the adjustment the GFS might make in the next few runs or it’s right with a rare MH into Big Bend.

I’m not too familiar with the history of hurricanes along Florida’s Gulf Coast but wouldn’t a direct hit for Tampa be a rare event also? As far as I know Tampa hasn’t had a direct hit since 1921 and I can’t think of any major hurricanes that have gone into the Big Bend of Florida. Either way a major hurricane hit for either area would be historic.

[caneman]

Just my opinion. GFS was W global outlier during Ian and kept that NHC track offshore into Big Bend. It’s happening again, the GFS is an east bias model, something will give and maybe it will be right this time. I’m betting it won’t.

We will see every storm is different and the GFS could have a better handle on Idalia than it had on Ian.

Of course each storm is unique, but models have their bias and storms generally follow certain paths. Not luck the Big Bend, outside of Cedar Key, sees little to no hurricanes.

Pure coincidence

[Blown Away]

Does anybody believe the brief NNW movement by the GFS after Western Cuba before going back N to NNE? If it were not for that, it would match the Euro track. Could see more east shifts by the GFS in subsequent runs.

GFS consistently showing that NW bump near Cuba, w/o it the track would be much farther E. That’s the adjustment the GFS might make in the next few runs or it’s right with a rare MH into Big Bend.

I’m not too familiar with the history of hurricanes along Florida’s Gulf Coast but wouldn’t a direct hit for Tampa be a rare event also? As far as I know Tampa hasn’t had a direct hit since 1921 and I can’t think of any major hurricanes that have gone into the Big Bend of Florida. Either way a major hurricane hit for either area would be historic.

A direct hurricane, especially a MH, from Appalachicola to Punta Gorda, except for a small slot over Cedar Key is historically very very rare. There’s always a first:

[Ed_2001]

Does anybody believe the brief NNW movement by the GFS after Western Cuba before going back N to NNE? If it were not for that, it would match the Euro track. Could see more east shifts by the GFS in subsequent runs.

GFS consistently showing that NW bump near Cuba, w/o it the track would be much farther E. That’s the adjustment the GFS might make in the next few runs or it’s right with a rare MH into Big Bend.

I’m not too familiar with the history of hurricanes along Florida’s Gulf Coast but wouldn’t a direct hit for Tampa be a rare event also? As far as I know Tampa hasn’t had a direct hit since 1921 and I can’t think of any major hurricanes that have gone into the Big Bend of Florida. Either way a major hurricane hit for either area would be historic.

1946 was the last direct hurricane hit in Tampa. I say it’s more luck than anything else, way too many close calls even in this past two decade to claim that the Tampa area is somehow not as hurricane prone.

[toad strangler]

GFS consistently showing that NW bump near Cuba, w/o it the track would be much farther E. That’s the adjustment the GFS might make in the next few runs or it’s right with a rare MH into Big Bend.

I’m not too familiar with the history of hurricanes along Florida’s Gulf Coast but wouldn’t a direct hit for Tampa be a rare event also? As far as I know Tampa hasn’t had a direct hit since 1921 and I can’t think of any major hurricanes that have gone into the Big Bend of Florida. Either way a major hurricane hit for either area would be historic.

A direct hurricane, especially a MH, from Appalachicola to Punta Gorda, except for a small slot over Cedar Key is historically very very rare. There’s always a first:

Wouldn’t be a first. #1921

[tolakram]

18Z Hurricane models starting, HAFS-B init