ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[blp]

Hard to tell if the LLC is still partially exposed. If not, then there will be a big problem.

NHC has the 0z location at 20.1N 85.4W, which is north of the recent rotating towers. That might be a saving grace.

Here is a good illustration of that.

[Woofde]

The convection has definitely worked its way upshear. If it holds, this could be the start of a CDO. I'm flying out tommorow morning to chase this. The way the models are trending is eerily reminding me of Ida, the last one I chased. I have a few friends in the area I've been reaching out to, and none seem very prepared. They were brushing it off as nonserious. If Ida turns into a major a lot of people are going to be unprepared.

[FLLurker32]

It’s important to note that a 40 mile shift east (within the current cone) would bring a potential MH into areas that haven’t experienced more than tropical storm winds in decades. All of these areas from Hernando to Ocala and Gainesville are very populated. Since 2020 the area has grown exponentially with people who are not from Florida. They do not own shutters. Their electric grid is primarily all above ground. Most in these areas do not bother to own generators. The last time anything came through this area of central FL with more than tropical storm winds was in 1960 with Hurricane Donna when it was still very densely populated.

Gainesville is 50 miles inland. It's relatively rare for any hurricane -even major - to record sustained hurricane force winds that far inland even if the advisories say it should. I say that not to discourage anyone from preparing, but to encourage those at the coast to simply move inland even if they feel they can't get out of the state.

Those on the coast absolutely should even if only because of the surge but I firmly disagree that a major doesn’t make it 50 miles inland with hurricane force winds. Charley was still a Cat 2 in Orlando and it came in from the SW. That’s just one example of many. The difference with this location is that it’s extraordinarily rare to see a hurricane enter from the west in the middle or south Big bend.

[zzzh]

Hard to tell if the LLC is still partially exposed. If not, then there will be a big problem.

NHC has the 0z location at 20.1N 85.4W, which is north of the recent rotating towers. That might be a saving grace.

Here is a good illustration of that.

https://i.ibb.co/84PfywD/5f8e6b4c2842d3a2cf9c758813d91756b8e3424ae53ff8fc56026699733def76.gif

That's the projected track from 21z. If I am not mistaken, 20.1N, 85.4W is right in the convective burst.

[GCANE]

Right on queue at sunset
Massive rotating hot tower on top of the CoC

[cheezyWXguy]

I would be very surprised if recon doesn’t find Idalia stronger than when they left earlier, but just to be clear, that doesn’t necessarily mean this thing is about to undergo RI or anything of the sort in the near term.

I am starting to wonder if this might be a CCC pattern, which would slow the rate of intensification, despite the dramatic expansion of cold cloud tops. Might be, might not. Recon should give us some insight

[Poonwalker]

Iam near the Tampa Bay region in Largo. This one hasn’t caused any concern here, I got batteries, spare gas, water etc. Hardly anyone was out stocking up. Iam actually more worried about this one considering just a jog east and the impact could be serious. And the ones in the past that were coming at us jogged east, go figure.

[GCANE]

Clearly see the rotation on radar.
Pretty far from the radar site, so its high up there in the troposphere

https://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropic ... recent.gif

[Poonwalker]

It’s important to note that a 40 mile shift east (within the current cone) would bring a potential MH into areas that haven’t experienced more than tropical storm winds in decades. All of these areas from Hernando to Ocala and Gainesville are very populated. Since 2020 the area has grown exponentially with people who are not from Florida. They do not own shutters. Their electric grid is primarily all above ground. Most in these areas do not bother to own generators. The last time anything came through this area of central FL with more than tropical storm winds was in 1960 with Hurricane Donna when it was still very densely populated.

Gainesville is 50 miles inland. It's relatively rare for any hurricane -even major - to record sustained hurricane force winds that far inland even if the advisories say it should. I say that not to discourage anyone from preparing, but to encourage those at the coast to simply move inland even if they feel they can't get out of the state.

Definitely go east or even southeast. Going north would be miserable and tons of traffic.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1695934243724263825

[cheezyWXguy]

Clearly see the rotation on radar.
Pretty far from the radar site, so its high up there in the troposphere

https://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropic ... recent.gif

Both radar and satellite remind me of Sally 2020’s first pulse-up phase. The CCC pattern came on with a quick phase of intensification up to cat 2 followed by a plateau and then a weakening. Not saying that’s what’s happening here for sure, but it’s possible.

[galaxy401]

Not liking the look of this storm one bit. Still has the hot Gulf waiting for it.

[La Sirena]

It’s important to note that a 40 mile shift east (within the current cone) would bring a potential MH into areas that haven’t experienced more than tropical storm winds in decades. All of these areas from Hernando to Ocala and Gainesville are very populated. Since 2020 the area has grown exponentially with people who are not from Florida. They do not own shutters. Their electric grid is primarily all above ground. Most in these areas do not bother to own generators. The last time anything came through this area of central FL with more than tropical storm winds was in 1960 with Hurricane Donna when it was still very densely populated.

Gainesville is 50 miles inland. It's relatively rare for any hurricane -even major - to record sustained hurricane force winds that far inland even if the advisories say it should. I say that not to discourage anyone from preparing, but to encourage those at the coast to simply move inland even if they feel they can't get out of the state.

Those on the coast absolutely should even if only because of the surge but I firmly disagree that a major doesn’t make it 50 miles inland with hurricane force winds. Charley was still a Cat 2 in Orlando and it came in from the SW. That’s just one example of many. The difference with this location is that it’s extraordinarily rare to see a hurricane enter from the west in the middle or south Big bend.

We lived 86 miles inland and experienced Cat 3 conditions during Michael.

[FLLurker32]

 https://twitter.com/ericburriswesh/status/1695941999839371357

[GCANE]

Looks like it fired off from a very sharp CAPE gradient.
MCS''s overland are very strong along such gradients and have huge updrafts.
Usually occur along fronts and produce the strong long-track tornadoes.

[Hurrilurker]

I don't know man, NHC thinks it will be ~50 mph by 2 am ET, I think they're going to find higher than that. There's a LOT of pink on that IR sat image. Winds can lag pressure/convection I guess but it looks like it's really cranking up already.

[zzzh]

CCC does not rotate. This rotates.

[Ianswfl]

https://twitter.com/ericburriswesh/status/1695941999839371357?s=46&t=5tHWzQ5n1A-eZvMR9vTsCA

That model is pretty far east. Also brings it closer to tampa and swfl! Any more wobbles on that and a charley could happen for someone like Bradenton.

[cycloneye]

CCC does not rotate. This rotates.

Any ASCAT pass that finnally nails it?

[zzzh]

CCC does not rotate. This rotates.

Any ASCAT pass that finnally nails it?

There was one at around 15z today. But there was also recon so recon first.