LandoWill wrote:cheezyWXguy wrote:LandoWill wrote:Always expected it to shift back west or panhandle based on the models, it just doesn't make sense, it's why tampa hasn't seen a hurricane in 100 years, it's not just luck. GFC has stayed west this entire time.
What about it doesn’t make sense or isn’t just luck? Can you elaborate?
Sure, what didn't make sense was the shift east by models, but once they got actual science input in them, they corrected themselves. The luck part was based on data, it seems like based on tampa's geographic location, cold fronts etc.. don't come far enough south to force it east, which is why the panhandle always gets them, same with louisanna and texas, Just the lucky tampa has, that being said. i am sure the once-in-a-century situation could present itself.
I was gonna push you on what you meant by “actual science”, but dude, come on. Someone in Tampa could come on here as a guest, read that, and think they’re in the clear because of the “hurricane shield” people mention each year.
A Tampa landfall is entirely possible given the uncertainty here. It’s fortunate they haven’t been hit up to this point, but that has no bearing on the current setup. Models could shift east again, or back west, or lock in on the current heading, and each of those outcomes is within the margin of error this far out. People in this area need to be on guard, and if it turns out they bought some extra water and fuel for their generators for nothing, that’s a lot better problem than getting caught with their pants down. It’s also worth pointing out that the gfs was west of the track the whole way with Ian and was very, very incorrect.
