ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

[HurricaneBelle]

I would be getting out of Dodge if lived along the coast or in a surge-prone area, just based on the NHC track alone let alone any eastern-leaning models. Unless it somehow pulls a Charley or Ian and unexpectedly goes in south of Tampa Bay it's going to be a nightmare there regardless unless it goes say west of Apalachicola.

I'm in a non-evacuation zone and for now I'm going to ride it out in Safety Harbor/Clearwater. Ahead of Ian I went to my son's in Tallahassee which turned out to be a great move as we still ended up losing power for 48 hours while I was gone. Considering it this time as well but right now Tallahassee looks as likely to suffer power outages, etc.

On the other hand having seen the new wind probabilities at 11PM, Tampa is rated 81/48/26 while Tallahassee is 31/12/3 as NHC has shifted the track a little more east once again so perhaps I'll reconsider.

[SconnieCane]

...IDALIA STRENGTHENING QUICKLY... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO...

[weeniepatrol]

The new prediction now shows a 95-kt hurricane over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico at 48 hours, but it should be stressed
that additional strengthening to major hurricane strength is
becoming increasingly likely before Idalia reaches the Gulf coast
of Florida.

[Cat5James]

Cone shifts slightly south 11pm advisory. Now includes north Sarasota

[Fancy1002]

They're effectively now forecasting a Cat 3 near landfall by upping it to 110 mph just offshore.

My personal rule is prepare for one category above what they’re forecasting, so if they’re forecasting a three, prepare for a four.

[ConvergenceZone]

So let's say that the storm does drift more S/E before turning north. One can assume that would lead to a more S landfall along Florida's west coast. But what does it mean for intensity? For one, it would have to traverse a larger cross-section of land over Cuba. For another, what does a more eastern and/or slower pace mean for SSTs and shear?

I think there is no doubt it would be weaker. I mean if it continues to shift east, eventually it could go over some part of cuba and it's not going to have much time over water if landfall forecast continues shifting East... Keep in mind I only think this if it continues to shift East and landfalls even further south of Tampa, otherwise still plenty of time over water.

[InfernoFlameCat]

The strength this could achieve… I don’t think there is an upper limit, and Idalia has given herself more time to strengthen. Florida better prepare.

[eastcoastFL]

[tolakram]

Sandwich IR view: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-sandwich-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[FLLurker32]

They're effectively now forecasting a Cat 3 near landfall by upping it to 110 mph just offshore.

My personal rule is prepare for one category above what they’re forecasting, so if they’re forecasting a three, prepare for a four.

Not only is that a good rule, but in this case it’s supported by comments within the NHC forecast advisory.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Recon is in the air, but there has not been a transmission in over 20 mins. I hope it goes alright. We really need recon investigating this regularly at this point.

...and just as I typed it an obs came through

[galaxy401]

992 is quite low for this system. Should start drifting north soon.

[MetroMike]

Storm surge of 4-7 ft in Tampa Bay now, was 3-5 ft earlier

[ScottNAtlanta]

992 is quite low for this system. Should start drifting north soon.

I think the hurricane models were close to that

[ConvergenceZone]

Looks like they are pushing up landfall as well. Looks like it's now going to make landfall very late Tuesday Night or just after midnight when all of us are asleep.

[NDG]

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/image_archives/2023/al102023.23082718.gif

This is an old track from this morning, this is the new track below.

[NDG]

Looks like they are pushing up landfall as well. Looks like it's now going to make landfall very late Tuesday Night or just after midnight when all of us are asleep.

Landfall forecasted around 5-6 AM.

Edit: Since the forecast is at CDT landfall is 6-7 AM Wednesday morning EDT.

[tolakram]

992 is quite low for this system. Should start drifting north soon.

I think the hurricane models were close to that

HAFS-B predicted 995MB at 11PM

HWRF predicted 989MB because of course it did.

[SconnieCane]

992 is quite low for this system. Should start drifting north soon.

I think the hurricane models were close to that

HAFS-B predicted 995MB at 11PM

HWRF predicted 989MB because of course it did.

So reality split the difference. Not too shabby.