ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1041 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:14 pm

Check out this buoy right next to the center of Idalia. Winds are spiking as the pressure just plummets.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=EDT
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1042 Postby Poonwalker » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:15 pm

Tampa is the worst place to get this storm. The angle of approach would build the water up in the bay and create a higher storm surge. It’s also the most populated area on the west coast with expensive homes and boats right on the water. With a short evacuation window there would be no time to evacuate and prepare. Let’s hope it doesn’t go through there. Insurance has already doubled in the area. This would be a nightmare.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1043 Postby Hurrilurker » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:15 pm

It's hard to tell without a clearly-defined eye, but it almost looks like it's moving back to the west while still nudging south. NHC says no significant change in track, but with the north turn delayed, I have to wonder how the timing of moving steering currents (ridges and troughs) won't change in that time.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1044 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:15 pm

I guess one bit of good news if it goes further south like it's now predicted is that looking at the new track, we only have to worry about one landfall as opposed to an east coast rider which it had looked like earlier. It will be heading out to sea after exiting Florida. So at least there is that.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1045 Postby Ianswfl » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:16 pm

The cone now touches Sarasota on the 11pm :eek:
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1046 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:17 pm

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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1047 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:17 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1048 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:19 pm

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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1049 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:20 pm

Zoomed in Official Track, right near Cedar Key, a little to the right of the latest TVCN.

Image
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1050 Postby FLLurker32 » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:21 pm


If it turns at any sharper of an angle than that it will absolutely push an insane amount of water into Tampa Bay. Yikes.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1051 Postby psyclone » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:21 pm

This latest tick east is a significant escalation for tampa bay and nature coast. I fear it won't be the last.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1052 Postby Hurrilurker » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:23 pm

If that track shifts another 30-50 miles east...yikes. Better hope crossing Cuba disrupts it but it'll probably quickly reorganize as we saw with Ian.
Last edited by Hurrilurker on Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:24 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1053 Postby psyclone » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:24 pm

I've never observed seawater this warm in my decades here in the bay area as this year. I've said we're sitting on dynamite...now we're playing with fire.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1054 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:24 pm

NDG wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:Looks like they are pushing up landfall as well. Looks like it's now going to make landfall very late Tuesday Night or just after midnight when all of us are asleep.


Landfall forecasted around 5-6 AM.

Edit: Since the forecast is at CDT landfall is 6-7 AM Wednesday morning EDT.

Timing couldn’t be worse. High tide at Kings Bay in Crystal River is around 5:45 AM Wednesday. Combine that with the Supermoon and it makes it about a worse case scenario.


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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1055 Postby Cat5James » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:26 pm

psyclone wrote:I've never observed seawater this warm in my decades here in the bay area as this year. I've said we're sitting on dynamite...now we're playing with fire.

Was on Ana Maria Island earlier today. Sea temp was 89 degrees. Not good.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1056 Postby Craters » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:27 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:Looks like they are pushing up landfall as well. Looks like it's now going to make landfall very late Tuesday Night or just after midnight when all of us are asleep.

Um, I think that "all of us" might be a slight exaggeration...
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1057 Postby emeraldislenc » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:28 pm

The satellite presentation is looking more impressive by the hour. It may be the angle but it looks just as impressive as Franklin.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1058 Postby Poonwalker » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:29 pm

Cat5James wrote:
psyclone wrote:I've never observed seawater this warm in my decades here in the bay area as this year. I've said we're sitting on dynamite...now we're playing with fire.

Was on Ana Maria Island earlier today. Sea temp was 89 degrees. Not good.

Anclote was 92.8. I then went out 50 miles where it was 88 degrees.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1059 Postby MGC » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:30 pm

NHC bumping up Idalia's intensity with every advisory. Best to prepare for a major hurricane at this point.....gonna be bad I'm afraid......MGC
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1060 Postby BobHarlem » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:31 pm

Surge Bumped up to 4-7 along tampa, and if it strengthens, could go higher. Surge areas need to be evacuated tomorrow, no question in my mind.

Image
Last edited by BobHarlem on Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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