ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Check out this buoy right next to the center of Idalia. Winds are spiking as the pressure just plummets.
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=EDT
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=EDT
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Tampa is the worst place to get this storm. The angle of approach would build the water up in the bay and create a higher storm surge. It’s also the most populated area on the west coast with expensive homes and boats right on the water. With a short evacuation window there would be no time to evacuate and prepare. Let’s hope it doesn’t go through there. Insurance has already doubled in the area. This would be a nightmare.
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- Hurrilurker
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
It's hard to tell without a clearly-defined eye, but it almost looks like it's moving back to the west while still nudging south. NHC says no significant change in track, but with the north turn delayed, I have to wonder how the timing of moving steering currents (ridges and troughs) won't change in that time.
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- ConvergenceZone
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I guess one bit of good news if it goes further south like it's now predicted is that looking at the new track, we only have to worry about one landfall as opposed to an east coast rider which it had looked like earlier. It will be heading out to sea after exiting Florida. So at least there is that.
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- eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
tolakram wrote:Sandwich IR view: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-sandwich-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
https://i.imgur.com/KKm52Ir.gif
That is one impressive young storm.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

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- Blown Away
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
tolakram wrote:Sandwich IR view: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-sandwich-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
https://i.imgur.com/KKm52Ir.gif
You can see a slow E movement. Good link, thx!
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Zoomed in Official Track, right near Cedar Key, a little to the right of the latest TVCN.


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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
tolakram wrote:https://i.imgur.com/pvDEIMa.png
If it turns at any sharper of an angle than that it will absolutely push an insane amount of water into Tampa Bay. Yikes.
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Heather
Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
This latest tick east is a significant escalation for tampa bay and nature coast. I fear it won't be the last.
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- Hurrilurker
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
If that track shifts another 30-50 miles east...yikes. Better hope crossing Cuba disrupts it but it'll probably quickly reorganize as we saw with Ian.
Last edited by Hurrilurker on Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:24 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I've never observed seawater this warm in my decades here in the bay area as this year. I've said we're sitting on dynamite...now we're playing with fire.
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- SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
NDG wrote:ConvergenceZone wrote:Looks like they are pushing up landfall as well. Looks like it's now going to make landfall very late Tuesday Night or just after midnight when all of us are asleep.
Landfall forecasted around 5-6 AM.
Edit: Since the forecast is at CDT landfall is 6-7 AM Wednesday morning EDT.
Timing couldn’t be worse. High tide at Kings Bay in Crystal River is around 5:45 AM Wednesday. Combine that with the Supermoon and it makes it about a worse case scenario.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
psyclone wrote:I've never observed seawater this warm in my decades here in the bay area as this year. I've said we're sitting on dynamite...now we're playing with fire.
Was on Ana Maria Island earlier today. Sea temp was 89 degrees. Not good.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
ConvergenceZone wrote:Looks like they are pushing up landfall as well. Looks like it's now going to make landfall very late Tuesday Night or just after midnight when all of us are asleep.
Um, I think that "all of us" might be a slight exaggeration...
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
The satellite presentation is looking more impressive by the hour. It may be the angle but it looks just as impressive as Franklin.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Cat5James wrote:psyclone wrote:I've never observed seawater this warm in my decades here in the bay area as this year. I've said we're sitting on dynamite...now we're playing with fire.
Was on Ana Maria Island earlier today. Sea temp was 89 degrees. Not good.
Anclote was 92.8. I then went out 50 miles where it was 88 degrees.
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- MGC
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
NHC bumping up Idalia's intensity with every advisory. Best to prepare for a major hurricane at this point.....gonna be bad I'm afraid......MGC
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Surge Bumped up to 4-7 along tampa, and if it strengthens, could go higher. Surge areas need to be evacuated tomorrow, no question in my mind.


Last edited by BobHarlem on Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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