ATL: IDALIA - Models

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

Landfall location almost identical to 18Z, just slower.

[LandoWill]

GFS dedicated to being west

[Ianswfl]

Landfall location almost identical to 18Z, just slower.

https://i.imgur.com/qJQUlVV.png

Yep, no changes with the data put into it for 0z. Slower I would err on more right of track then.

[AtlanticWind]

No real changes this evening on 00z runs, other than a little slower

[NDG]

Looks like 0z GFS is on the same landfall spot as its earlier 18z run, but stronger.

[FLLurker32]

I don’t think we’re going to get landfall more pinned down than it is until we see where exactly it comes up north of Cuba.

[chaser1]

For what it's worth, GFS appears to better initialize the storm. 0 hour (initial) shows a 994mb and pretty much on the money for latitude. On the other hand, both CMS and ICON appear about a degree too far north and significantly weaker (999/1000 mb) at 0600Z.

[AtlanticWind]

No real changes this evening on 00z runs, other than a little slower

[Ianswfl]

No real changes this evening on 00z runs, other than a little slower

GFS ensembles shifted east, tighter group, close to NHC forecast. However a number of members mover over or near Tampa. I wouldn't be shocked if the hurricane watch is extended to Bonita Beach if this thing is large, well warning since it will be within 24 hrs. I think we could see 80mph gusts around here if it takes the more east path.

[WxEp]

00z UKMET - East shift - for example, at 48 hours is 0.1 degree south and 0.4 degrees east of today's 12z at the same time.

TROPICAL STORM IDALIA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.8N 85.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.08.2023 0 19.8N 85.5W 997 38
1200UTC 28.08.2023 12 20.8N 84.8W 996 41
0000UTC 29.08.2023 24 22.2N 85.5W 996 39
1200UTC 29.08.2023 36 23.6N 85.1W 996 46
0000UTC 30.08.2023 48 25.7N 85.1W 993 50
1200UTC 30.08.2023 60 28.6N 83.9W 989 51
0000UTC 31.08.2023 72 31.4N 81.8W 988 47
1200UTC 31.08.2023 84 33.3N 78.1W 987 45
0000UTC 01.09.2023 96 34.0N 73.6W 989 52
1200UTC 01.09.2023 108 34.8N 70.3W 990 54
0000UTC 02.09.2023 120 35.5N 67.8W 991 49
1200UTC 02.09.2023 132 36.3N 65.8W 990 47
0000UTC 03.09.2023 144 37.2N 63.7W 984 53
1200UTC 03.09.2023 156 39.5N 60.7W 974 5

[tropicwatch]

00z UKMET - East shift - for example, at 48 hours is 0.1 degree south and 0.4 degrees east of today's 12z at the same time.

TROPICAL STORM IDALIA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.8N 85.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.08.2023 0 19.8N 85.5W 997 38
1200UTC 28.08.2023 12 20.8N 84.8W 996 41
0000UTC 29.08.2023 24 22.2N 85.5W 996 39
1200UTC 29.08.2023 36 23.6N 85.1W 996 46
0000UTC 30.08.2023 48 25.7N 85.1W 993 50
1200UTC 30.08.2023 60 28.6N 83.9W 989 51
0000UTC 31.08.2023 72 31.4N 81.8W 988 47
1200UTC 31.08.2023 84 33.3N 78.1W 987 45
0000UTC 01.09.2023 96 34.0N 73.6W 989 52
1200UTC 01.09.2023 108 34.8N 70.3W 990 54
0000UTC 02.09.2023 120 35.5N 67.8W 991 49
1200UTC 02.09.2023 132 36.3N 65.8W 990 47
0000UTC 03.09.2023 144 37.2N 63.7W 984 53
1200UTC 03.09.2023 156 39.5N 60.7W 974 5

Don't think it is handling intensity very well.

[WxEp]

Don't think it is handling intensity very well.

I generally only look at the UKMET intensity to see general trend (strengthening/steady/weakening). The UKMET almost always underestimates intensity - and significantly so on stronger systems. It's not really meant to be used as an intensity model.

[FLLurker32]

00z UKMET - East shift - for example, at 48 hours is 0.1 degree south and 0.4 degrees east of today's 12z at the same time.

TROPICAL STORM IDALIA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.8N 85.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.08.2023 0 19.8N 85.5W 997 38
1200UTC 28.08.2023 12 20.8N 84.8W 996 41
0000UTC 29.08.2023 24 22.2N 85.5W 996 39
1200UTC 29.08.2023 36 23.6N 85.1W 996 46
0000UTC 30.08.2023 48 25.7N 85.1W 993 50
1200UTC 30.08.2023 60 28.6N 83.9W 989 51
0000UTC 31.08.2023 72 31.4N 81.8W 988 47
1200UTC 31.08.2023 84 33.3N 78.1W 987 45
0000UTC 01.09.2023 96 34.0N 73.6W 989 52
1200UTC 01.09.2023 108 34.8N 70.3W 990 54
0000UTC 02.09.2023 120 35.5N 67.8W 991 49
1200UTC 02.09.2023 132 36.3N 65.8W 990 47
0000UTC 03.09.2023 144 37.2N 63.7W 984 53
1200UTC 03.09.2023 156 39.5N 60.7W 974 5

Brings it up close to Steinhatchee in the Big bend through to Waycross, GA area for anyone who doesn’t care to map it out.

[SouthFLTropics]

Some pretty significant west shifts so far for some of the 00z hurricane models.

HAFS A and B both shifted west. HMON appears a tick east.

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[Ianswfl]

Some pretty significant west shifts so far for some of the 00z hurricane models.

HAFS A and B both shifted west. HMON appears a tick east.

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UKMET, GFS slightly east, these more west. Odd. Storm is more south and east. If it keeps going slow could make a sharper turn further south when that stronger trof comes.

[Jr0d]

Some pretty significant west shifts so far for some of the 00z hurricane models.

HAFS A and B both shifted west. HMON appears a tick east.

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I could be wrong, but I'm don't think they have data from today's upper air sampling mission.

Tomorrow mornings guidance should have a more complete picture.

My best guess is landfall further south with a sharper Ne to ENE turn when it happens. Idalia will follow Franklin.

[Ianswfl]

Some pretty significant west shifts so far for some of the 00z hurricane models.

HAFS A and B both shifted west. HMON appears a tick east.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I could be wrong, but I'm don't think they have data from today's upper air sampling mission.

Tomorrow mornings guidance should have a more complete picture.

My best guess is landfall further south with a sharper Ne to ENE turn when it happens. Idalia will follow Franklin.

I think similar to what the ICON showed at 00z maybe a bit south. I'm thinking a bit more south, more around Pasco County if this is the case. Would be bad surge for places like Tampa, Longboat Key, etc.

[Jr0d]

There is already a large area of tropical storm force winds in the SE quad. This trend is not good for storm surge potential.

....wrong forum.

At this rate we may see some flooding in Key West

[ConvergenceZone]

I hope our long-time model posting guy Aric Dunn is still around.... Usually he is all over storms like this. But I haven't seen him. I hope he's okay.