ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

Franklin and Idalia, Franklin looking good and Idalia getting there.

[Hurricaneman]

I’m thinking recon finds a sub 990 pressure shortly

[NDG]

Not surprising the NW quadrant is not very strong at all.

924
URNT15 KNHC 280501
AF304 0310A IDALIA HDOB 17 20230828
045300 2017N 08555W 8422 01518 //// +179 //// 038021 021 019 000 01
045330 2016N 08554W 8440 01498 0014 +185 +175 034022 022 020 000 00
045400 2015N 08553W 8428 01509 //// +179 //// 040023 026 023 002 01
045430 2014N 08551W 8429 01506 //// +174 //// 035025 027 022 002 01
045500 2013N 08550W 8433 01502 0010 +186 +175 036025 026 021 000 00
045530 2011N 08549W 8428 01506 0008 +189 +174 031026 026 021 001 00
045600 2010N 08548W 8430 01502 0009 +185 +182 028025 025 022 001 01
045630 2009N 08546W 8425 01507 0004 +191 +185 027026 027 025 001 00
045700 2008N 08545W 8429 01500 0000 +194 +184 029027 028 024 001 00
045730 2007N 08544W 8430 01498 9999 +196 +182 039026 027 022 001 00
045800 2006N 08542W 8428 01500 9995 +200 +174 047024 025 022 000 00
045830 2005N 08541W 8428 01497 9991 +202 +170 047026 026 024 000 03
045900 2004N 08539W 8428 01494 9989 +202 +166 043027 028 022 000 00
045930 2003N 08538W 8427 01494 9985 +205 +163 042027 028 022 000 00
050000 2002N 08537W 8428 01491 9983 +209 +155 041028 029 022 000 00
050030 2000N 08536W 8429 01486 9980 +210 +155 040030 031 021 000 00
050100 1959N 08534W 8428 01486 9975 +210 +155 036030 031 023 000 00
050130 1958N 08533W 8426 01484 9970 +215 +148 037030 031 023 000 00
050200 1957N 08532W 8426 01481 9965 +219 +148 038030 030 022 001 00
050230 1956N 08530W 8429 01479 9959 +229 +145 040027 029 023 001 00

[weeniepatrol]

[Craters]

Idalia has been sitting in that part of the Caribbean for a slight bit now and I haven’t heard much about upwelling. Is this part of the Caribbean THAT deep with warm water?

Yep. Unfortunately, it's literally over the westernmost chunk of the highest heat-content region in the entire Atlantic Basin:



While it just sits there, it's something like the Captain America of Tropical Systems: It can do what it's doing all day.

[weeniepatrol]

[NDG]

990mb extrap pressure, strong SE quadrant.

URNT15 KNHC 280511
AF304 0310A IDALIA HDOB 18 20230828
050300 1955N 08529W 8426 01479 9953 +234 +142 036027 027 025 000 00
050330 1954N 08528W 8433 01467 9946 +242 +137 032027 028 027 000 00
050400 1953N 08526W 8421 01476 9941 +244 +135 027026 028 024 001 00
050430 1952N 08525W 8432 01461 9932 +251 +130 020025 027 021 000 00
050500 1951N 08523W 8422 01467 9925 +255 +135 024021 023 018 000 00
050530 1950N 08521W 8425 01458 9918 +254 +154 025018 020 016 000 00
050600 1950N 08520W 8425 01456 9918 +249 +159 033016 018 013 000 00
050630 1949N 08518W 8429 01446 9914 +244 +168 051014 016 012 000 00
050700 1948N 08517W 8426 01447 9922 +220 +178 080014 017 009 000 00
050730 1946N 08516W 8447 01422 9914 +232 +174 064012 014 011 000 03
050800 1945N 08516W 8432 01435 9906 +240 +169 041009 013 008 001 00
050830 1943N 08515W 8420 01444 9913 +222 +174 091003 006 010 001 00
050900 1942N 08514W 8425 01441 9921 +209 +183 174007 009 013 000 00
050930 1941N 08513W 8425 01444 9920 +213 +181 169010 013 012 000 00
051000 1940N 08511W 8420 01450 9929 +196 +188 203018 020 014 000 00
051030 1939N 08510W 8421 01450 //// +187 //// 218020 021 020 003 01
051100 1938N 08509W 8430 01441 9943 +193 //// 230027 032 042 008 01
051130 1936N 08508W 8429 01444 9950 +205 +205 237044 051 043 009 00
051200 1935N 08506W 8431 01448 9966 +206 +206 231057 059 018 062 03
051230 1934N 08505W 8441 01452 9981 +200 +200 223052 055 049 038 00
$$

[tropicwatch]

As soon as they got southeast of the center, bam, the wind shoots up. Looking forward to the other quadrants too.
I'm thinking a vdm will come out on their first pass.

[Jr0d]

59kt Flight level
49kt SFMR Winds in the SE quadrant this pass.

Very interesting to see what the NE and SW quadrants will have.

[cycloneye]

990mb extrap pressure, strong SE quadrant.

URNT15 KNHC 280511
AF304 0310A IDALIA HDOB 18 20230828
050300 1955N 08529W 8426 01479 9953 +234 +142 036027 027 025 000 00
050330 1954N 08528W 8433 01467 9946 +242 +137 032027 028 027 000 00
050400 1953N 08526W 8421 01476 9941 +244 +135 027026 028 024 001 00
050430 1952N 08525W 8432 01461 9932 +251 +130 020025 027 021 000 00
050500 1951N 08523W 8422 01467 9925 +255 +135 024021 023 018 000 00
050530 1950N 08521W 8425 01458 9918 +254 +154 025018 020 016 000 00
050600 1950N 08520W 8425 01456 9918 +249 +159 033016 018 013 000 00
050630 1949N 08518W 8429 01446 9914 +244 +168 051014 016 012 000 00
050700 1948N 08517W 8426 01447 9922 +220 +178 080014 017 009 000 00
050730 1946N 08516W 8447 01422 9914 +232 +174 064012 014 011 000 03
050800 1945N 08516W 8432 01435 9906 +240 +169 041009 013 008 001 00
050830 1943N 08515W 8420 01444 9913 +222 +174 091003 006 010 001 00
050900 1942N 08514W 8425 01441 9921 +209 +183 174007 009 013 000 00
050930 1941N 08513W 8425 01444 9920 +213 +181 169010 013 012 000 00
051000 1940N 08511W 8420 01450 9929 +196 +188 203018 020 014 000 00
051030 1939N 08510W 8421 01450 //// +187 //// 218020 021 020 003 01
051100 1938N 08509W 8430 01441 9943 +193 //// 230027 032 042 008 01
051130 1936N 08508W 8429 01444 9950 +205 +205 237044 051 043 009 00
051200 1935N 08506W 8431 01448 9966 +206 +206 231057 059 018 062 03
051230 1934N 08505W 8441 01452 9981 +200 +200 223052 055 049 038 00
$$

Rounds to 991 mbs with the 990.6.

[Keldeo1997]

Eye drop would suggest 989MB

[Hurrilurker]

Idalia has been sitting in that part of the Caribbean for a slight bit now and I haven’t heard much about upwelling. Is this part of the Caribbean THAT deep with warm water?

The Yucatan Channel (between Yucatan and Cuba) is apparently 9,200 feet at its deepest, already very deep. But the NOAA buoy in the area where Idalia is displays the water depth as 4,554 meters, or about 15,000 feet, or almost 3 miles deep.

[FLpanhandle91]

051400 1931N 08502W 8429 01481 0001 +191 +191 216049 051 054 039 00

[Jr0d]

We have 53 and 54kt unflagged SFMR now, unfortunately this string of data is missing pressure(and more) data. Hopefully its only a temporary gripe.

Still enough time for another pass before the 2am advisory. Based on this they will bump the intensity to 55kt....getting close to hurricane strength.

[Hurricane2022]

No eyewall

372
URNT12 KNHC 280528
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL102023
A. 28/05:08:40Z
B. 19.72 deg N 085.25 deg W
C. 850 mb 1363 m
D. 991 mb
E. 190 deg 17 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 27 kt
I. 309 deg 15 nm 05:03:30Z
J. 036 deg 31 kt
K. 309 deg 24 nm 05:01:00Z
L. 54 kt
M. 134 deg 17 nm 05:14:00Z
N. 230 deg 59 kt
O. 134 deg 11 nm 05:12:00Z
P. 26 C / 1532 m
Q. 25 C / 1534 m
R. 18 C / NA
S. 134 / 8
T. 0.02 / 5 nm
U. AF304 0310A IDALIA OB 08
MAX FL WIND 59 KT 134 / 11 NM 05:12:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 26 C 313 / 11 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[Floodo_Is_My_Hero]

I have watched the tropical cyclone discussions in Storm2k for years, but since I live in Oregon, I haven’t been personally affected by the storms I read about. This one might be different. My daughter is heading to Ocala, FL on Wednesday with her boyfriend. I’m not familiar with the area but see that it could be affected by Idalia. I’m trying not to worry too much, but that is easier said than done when you are a father. Should I be worried about this area of Florida?

[IcyTundra]

I have watched the tropical cyclone discussions in Storm2k for years, but since I live in Oregon, I haven’t been personally affected by the storms I read about. This one might be different. My daughter is heading to Ocala, FL on Wednesday with her boyfriend. I’m not familiar with the area but see that it could be affected by Idalia. I’m trying not to worry too much, but that is easier said than done when you are a father. Should I be worried about this area of Florida?

Wednesday will be a rain out for them they won’t be able to do anything except stay inside all day. Ocala is far enough inland that storm surge won’t be an issue, but Ocala will certainly get a lot of rain from this. Depending on where it hits and how strong it is there could be power outages in Ocala due to the wind. It certainly isn’t an ideal time to go there that’s for sure.

[Florabamaman]

I have watched the tropical cyclone discussions in Storm2k for years, but since I live in Oregon, I haven’t been personally affected by the storms I read about. This one might be different. My daughter is heading to Ocala, FL on Wednesday with her boyfriend. I’m not familiar with the area but see that it could be affected by Idalia. I’m trying not to worry too much, but that is easier said than done when you are a father. Should I be worried about this area of Florida?

In short, yes. You should be concerned. She needs to stay out of Ocala and stay off of the roadways period. This is no time to be traveling in Florida.

[Hurricaneman]

This finally has that fist look, could go crazy tomorrow

[Hurricane Mike]

990 mb on the new advisory. This thing will definitely trend towards a lower than normal pressure. Reminds me a bit of Hurricane Isidore in 2002 (which also did a loop near the Yucatan Peninsula). Isidore started as a tropical storm with a lower pressure similar to Idalia, and ended up being down to 934 mb despite only having winds of 125 mph.