ATL: IDALIA - Models

[Ianswfl]

It's hard to tell with the early 00z since it skips more frames, but it's more east! in between frames looks like landfall Pasco county area. Big shift east! Hard to tell but doesn't look good if you extrapolate between 48 and 72 hrs.

[Jr0d]

I hope our long-time model posting guy Aric Dunn is still around.... Usually he is all over storms like this. But I haven't seen him. I hope he's okay.

If I dont see him posting here, I will give him a call, i've known Aric since our early teens.

I am not buying into a Big Bend landfall yet, I am thinking further south with Tampa Bay at high risk for a direct hit with extreme surge.

We will see what the model output looks like with the extra data tomorrow. We will see if the UKMet trend is correct and the west shift of the hurricane models is a result of incomplete data or they are seeing something the UKMET is not.

[Ianswfl]

I hope our long-time model posting guy ArinDun is still around.... Usually he is all over storms like this. But I haven't seen him. I hope he's okay.

If I dont see him posting here, I will give him a call, i've known Aric since our early teens.

I am not buying into a Big Bend landfall yet, I am thinking further south with Tampa Bay at high risk for a direct hit with extreme surge.

We will see what the model output looks like with the extra data tomorrow. We will see if the UKMet trend is correct and the west shift of the hurricane models is a result of incomplete data or they are seeing something the UKMET is not.

Euro did a big east shift based on the early euro. I hate how it skips frames, it's pretty far east if you extrapolate it in between frames. Do you think in Punta Gorda I'll need shutters? If wind gusts get to 100mph I'd put them up. I wonder if the Euro track is correct I'd get 100mph gusts.

[Bocadude85]

I hope our long-time model posting guy Aric Dunn is still around.... Usually he is all over storms like this. But I haven't seen him. I hope he's okay.

If I dont see him posting here, I will give him a call, i've known Aric since our early teens.

I am not buying into a Big Bend landfall yet, I am thinking further south with Tampa Bay at high risk for a direct hit with extreme surge.

We will see what the model output looks like with the extra data tomorrow. We will see if the UKMet trend is correct and the west shift of the hurricane models is a result of incomplete data or they are seeing something the UKMET is not.

Euro did a big east shift based on the early euro. I hate how it skips frames, it's pretty far east if you extrapolate it in between frames. Do you think in Punta Gorda I'll need shutters? If wind gusts get to 100mph I'd put them up. I wonder if the Euro track is correct I'd get 100mph gusts.

The EC fast is pretty far offshore from Punta Gorda.. doubt you would see gusts anywhere close to 100mph

[NFLnut]

Euro did a big east shift based on the early euro. I hate how it skips frames, it's pretty far east if you extrapolate it in between frames. Do you think in Punta Gorda I'll need shutters? If wind gusts get to 100mph I'd put them up. I wonder if the Euro track is correct I'd get 100mph gusts.

I'm not seeing an east shift at all with the 00Z EURO. It's about the same spot at landfall as the 18Z. Still showing Big Bend landfall.

[Ianswfl]

Euro did a big east shift based on the early euro. I hate how it skips frames, it's pretty far east if you extrapolate it in between frames. Do you think in Punta Gorda I'll need shutters? If wind gusts get to 100mph I'd put them up. I wonder if the Euro track is correct I'd get 100mph gusts.

I'm not seeing an east shift at all with the 00Z EURO. It's about the same spot at landfall as the 18Z. Still showing Big Bend landfall.

Looked a bit east on my computer screen. Too hard to tell with the frame skipping landfall.

[NFLnut]

The EC fast is pretty far offshore from Punta Gorda.. doubt you would see gusts anywhere close to 100mph

Agreed. And the 00Z EURO shows it at 989MBAR at 48 hrs so that is barely Hurricane strength at center. I think the EURO is understating the strength yet but still not anywhere close to 100mph in PG.

[Ianswfl]

The EC fast is pretty far offshore from Punta Gorda.. doubt you would see gusts anywhere close to 100mph

Agreed. And the 00Z EURO shows it at 989MBAR at 48 hrs so that is barely Hurricane strength at center. I think the EURO is understating the strength yet but still not anywhere close to 100mph in PG.

The global models are out of whack with the pressure. If I recall it forecasted Ian to have a pressure of like 950s and 960s at landfall.

What happened to the days when the Euro and GFS gave out pressures of like 895mb landfall with Irma?

[NFLnut]

The EC fast is pretty far offshore from Punta Gorda.. doubt you would see gusts anywhere close to 100mph

Agreed. And the 00Z EURO shows it at 989MBAR at 48 hrs so that is barely Hurricane strength at center. I think the EURO is understating the strength yet but still not anywhere close to 100mph in PG.

The global models are out of whack with the pressure. If I recall it forecasted Ian to have a pressure of like 950s and 960s at landfall.

What happened to the days when the Euro and GFS gave out pressures of like 895mb landfall with Irma?

Yep. I would tend to go with NHC on the strength at this point though I think they may back it down a bit barring any bombing in the next 12-24 hours. They have been stating all day Sunday that they were going with the higher side of model intensity forecasts.

[Ianswfl]

Agreed. And the 00Z EURO shows it at 989MBAR at 48 hrs so that is barely Hurricane strength at center. I think the EURO is understating the strength yet but still not anywhere close to 100mph in PG.

The global models are out of whack with the pressure. If I recall it forecasted Ian to have a pressure of like 950s and 960s at landfall.

What happened to the days when the Euro and GFS gave out pressures of like 895mb landfall with Irma?

Yep. I would tend to go with NHC on the strength at this point though I think they may back it down a bit barring any bombing in the next 12-24 hours. They have been stating all day Sunday that they were going with the higher side of model intensity forecasts.

Hurricane models have been stronger. However even they have been bouncing around on intensity

[rigbyrigz]

i see EC Fast point 48 to 72 finishes east, but surely doesnt have to be a straight line... could curve thru Big Bend or not. Hate those missing squares.

[Bocadude85]

The 0z Euro is definitely east of the 18z but still landfalls in the big bend.. man that area hasn’t had a major hurricane in a very very long time. Tampa Bay people need to be prepared.. any more eastern adjustment and they are in a lot of trouble.

[Jr0d]

Euro did a big east shift based on the early euro. I hate how it skips frames, it's pretty far east if you extrapolate it in between frames. Do you think in Punta Gorda I'll need shutters? If wind gusts get to 100mph I'd put them up. I wonder if the Euro track is correct I'd get 100mph gusts.

I would err on the side of caution. Hopefully by tomorrow afternoon we will have a clearer picture with better model inputs.

If Idalia is still south of Cuba by Monday night, then I think we can say Punta Gorda will see much bigger impacts than currently forecast. Hopefully it only takes an hour or 2 to put up your shutters so you wont have to make a decision until Tuesday morning. As it stands right now, it would take a big model shift south and east for Punta Gorda to see 100mph winds, that everyone under a hurricane watch needs to prepare and ready for final preparations(ie shutters) if a warning is issued.

I dont think the models predicted this current motion, however it may just be a wobble to.the south east under weak steering currents for now

[Ianswfl]

Euro did a big east shift based on the early euro. I hate how it skips frames, it's pretty far east if you extrapolate it in between frames. Do you think in Punta Gorda I'll need shutters? If wind gusts get to 100mph I'd put them up. I wonder if the Euro track is correct I'd get 100mph gusts.

I would err on the side of caution. Hopefully by tomorrow afternoon we will have a clearer picture with better model inputs.

If Idalia is still south of Cuba by Monday night, then I think we can say Punta Gorda will see much bigger impacts than currently forecast. Hopefully it only takes an hour or 2 to put up your shutters so you wont have to make a decision until Tuesday morning. As it stands right now, it would take a big model shift south and east for Punta Gorda to see 100mph winds, that everyone under a hurricane watch needs to prepare and ready for final preparations(ie shutters) if a warning is issued.

I dont think the models predicted this current motion, however it may just be a wobble to.the south east under weak steering currents for now

The 00z the way it approaches fl, one wrong wobble and tampa has huge problems

[jlauderdal]

Euro did a big east shift based on the early euro. I hate how it skips frames, it's pretty far east if you extrapolate it in between frames. Do you think in Punta Gorda I'll need shutters? If wind gusts get to 100mph I'd put them up. I wonder if the Euro track is correct I'd get 100mph gusts.

I would err on the side of caution. Hopefully by tomorrow afternoon we will have a clearer picture with better model inputs.

If Idalia is still south of Cuba by Monday night, then I think we can say Punta Gorda will see much bigger impacts than currently forecast. Hopefully it only takes an hour or 2 to put up your shutters so you wont have to make a decision until Tuesday morning. As it stands right now, it would take a big model shift south and east for Punta Gorda to see 100mph winds, that everyone under a hurricane watch needs to prepare and ready for final preparations(ie shutters) if a warning is issued.

I dont think the models predicted this current motion, however it may just be a wobble to.the south east under weak steering currents for now

The 00z the way it approaches fl, one wrong wobble and tampa has huge problems

Just look at the nhc line and where the llc is tracking, ian was always to the right, where does this one track...models become less important now and we track what is really happening on approach

[chris_fit]

06z GFS slightly left of previous run. Feeling better here near Tampa this morning, no major shifts to the right. Just need to watch and see how she behaves today.

[caneman]

06z GFS slightly left of previous run. Feeling better here near Tampa this morning, no major shifts to the right. Just need to watch and see how she behaves today.

There is no way on this round that I'll allow the GFS to add to my comfort level. They've been all over the place.

[jlauderdal]

06z GFS slightly left of previous run. Feeling better here near Tampa this morning, no major shifts to the right. Just need to watch and see how she behaves today.

Your last sentence is the best thing to be done at this point, you know where nhc has it, does the system stay on track, and if it's to the right then you know your impacts are increasing. At this point, the preps are the same regardless of what the models say.

[Clearcloudz]

06Z ICON

[N2FSU]

6z GFS


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