ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Floodo_Is_My_Hero]

I have watched the tropical cyclone discussions in Storm2k for years, but since I live in Oregon, I haven’t been personally affected by the storms I read about. This one might be different. My daughter is heading to Ocala, FL on Wednesday with her boyfriend. I’m not familiar with the area but see that it could be affected by Idalia. I’m trying not to worry too much, but that is easier said than done when you are a father. Should I be worried about this area of Florida?

In short, yes. You should be concerned. She needs to stay out of Ocala and stay off of the roadways period. This is no time to be traveling in Florida.

Well she is 27 years, so I don’t have much say over what she does, unfortunately. But I will inform her the best I can. Thanks!

[Bocadude85]

According to the 0Z models so far we will see a very rare major hurricane landfall in the big bend… we shall see.. less then 72 hours out..

[rigbyrigz]

Just in from Dr. Levi Cowan...
Tonight's aircraft recon mission has found #Idalia's center underneath the deep convective burst that has been ongoing for the past few hours. Central pressure is down to 991mb, and surface winds of around 60 mph were found southeast of the center. Notably, the radius of max winds has contracted substantially from this morning, and is now 15 to 20 miles. This is a sign of increasing organization, and Idalia is clearly intensifying. Whether this trend continues steadily or pauses for a while will depend on whether thunderstorm banding can wrap around the northern side of the circulation. For now, thunderstorm activity is primarily on the southeast side

[Jr0d]

I have watched the tropical cyclone discussions in Storm2k for years, but since I live in Oregon, I haven’t been personally affected by the storms I read about. This one might be different. My daughter is heading to Ocala, FL on Wednesday with her boyfriend. I’m not familiar with the area but see that it could be affected by Idalia. I’m trying not to worry too much, but that is easier said than done when you are a father. Should I be worried about this area of Florida?

Ocala should not be too bad. Flooding should be relatively minor as the storm should move through at a decent rate. Probably some high winds with isolated minor(ef-0 to 1) tornados.

As long as she is in a sturdy structure,( ie not a trailer or log cabin) and does not drive around when its bad out she will be fine.

Power outages are inconvenient but not that big of a deal. Lots of big trees in the area so.there is a greater risk of them taking out lower lines.

[Ianswfl]

According to the 0Z models so far we will see a very rare major hurricane landfall in the big bend… we shall see.. less then 72 hours out..

Looks like Euro 00z thinks otherwise.

[Sciencerocks]

[rigbyrigz]

Even the Euro seems to be trending back to the Big Bend (versus Cedar Key thru North of Tampa.) I'm not sure I am reading the model runs perfectly, but the 0Z has given the center Big Bend a lot more landfall poking than seen earlier. I would not be surprised to see NHC paths and other tracks to shortly move things a bit west of earlier this evening's indications.

[Bocadude85]

Even the Euro seems to be trending back to the Big Bend (versus Cedar Key thru North of Tampa.) I'm not sure I am reading the model runs perfectly, but the 0Z has given the center Big Bend a lot more landfall poking than seen earlier. I would not be surprised to see NHC paths and other tracks to shortly move things a bit west of earlier this evening's indications.

0Z Euro looks like a southeast shift from 12Z but it’s hard to tell since only the Euro fast is out so far

[ElectricStorm]

Extrap pressure up slightly this pass, NE quad is weaker than SE. Still needs to wrap up more to really get the intensification going

[ElectricStorm]

Not aligned with the anticyclone so it's still dealing with 20-25kts of shear, needs to get better aligned

[Ianswfl]

Even the Euro seems to be trending back to the Big Bend (versus Cedar Key thru North of Tampa.) I'm not sure I am reading the model runs perfectly, but the 0Z has given the center Big Bend a lot more landfall poking than seen earlier. I would not be surprised to see NHC paths and other tracks to shortly move things a bit west of earlier this evening's indications.

0Z Euro looks like a southeast shift from 12Z but it’s hard to tell since only the Euro fast is out so far

Same here. Looks like it passes closer to the Tampa area too on the 00z, not big Bend

[Keldeo1997]

Still strengthening

[rigbyrigz]

0Z Euro looks like a southeast shift from 12Z but it’s hard to tell since only the Euro fast is out so far[/quote]

Same here. Looks like it passes closer to the Tampa area too on the 00z, not big Bend[/quote]

Yes, sorry, was looking at TropBits and see the run I commented on was 18z. I guess no free access to view the 00Z run?

[AtlanticWind]

Wondering if it will really reach Cuba by 7pm Monday as per NHC forecast.
It would have to start moving pretty soon .

[LarryWx]

I have watched the tropical cyclone discussions in Storm2k for years, but since I live in Oregon, I haven’t been personally affected by the storms I read about. This one might be different. My daughter is heading to Ocala, FL on Wednesday with her boyfriend. I’m not familiar with the area but see that it could be affected by Idalia. I’m trying not to worry too much, but that is easier said than done when you are a father. Should I be worried about this area of Florida?

In short, yes. You should be concerned. She needs to stay out of Ocala and stay off of the roadways period. This is no time to be traveling in Florida.

What the above poster said! It isn't just Ocala. It probably will be even more of an issue getting to Ocala. To me this is a 100% no brainer. I mean can't she at the very least wait an extra day?

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like another upper-air mission just took off

[ElectricStorm]

SPC has upgraded to slight risk including a 5% tornado area from Idalia. This is for Tues 8/29

[ElectricStorm]

10L IDALIA 230828 0600 19.8N 85.2W ATL 55 988

[Ianswfl]

Wondering if it will really reach Cuba by 7pm Monday as per NHC forecast.
It would have to start moving pretty soon .

That sharper bend at landfall would take place further south.

[AtlanticWind]

Not looking quite as impressive ATM as earlier, but just a hiccup I’m sure.

A lot more convection on the east side wonder if she will get pulled
a little more east before she begins the north movement later today.