ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurrilurker]

It’s a bit messy right now, although it looks to me like the northern shear is relaxing a bit, and outflow is improving.

[Poonwalker]

Outflow has really improved and the expansion on the right is starting to wrap around. It’s growing

[Extratropical94]

Major hurricane now explicitly predicted by the NHC

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 27.7N 84.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

[REDHurricane]

Whoops meant to post this in the model thread

[johngaltfla]

Major hurricane now explicitly predicted by the NHC

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 27.7N 84.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

I was afraid this would happen and I would not dismiss some of the solutions put out by the UKMET and ICON models. If I lived in flood prone areas from Pinellas north I would be making major preps. The next 12 hours are going to set the table for this and Tampa Bay along with points north are at great risk to a major storm surge event.

I AM NOT predicting this, but the set up is there for a close to a 1921 style track. Thankfully it will be a fast moving storm.

[GCANE]

Microwave sounding analysis shows cold anomalous air temperature above the surface of the water.
Heat flow from the ocean into Idalia is directly proportional to the difference in the water temperature and the air temperature.
The hotter the water, the more heat flow or the colder the air, the more heat flow.
Idalia is efficiently pulling heat out of the water.

The vertical red line represents the CoC
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... _xsect.gif

[hiflyer]

5am and NHC says Cat 1 tip Cuba and Cat 3 approaching landfall Big Bend…passing close to Tamp/St Pete.
2 days out
Ouch!

[GCANE]

Judging by the Cuba and Cancun radars, eye may be open to the west

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1696098923570413693

[kevin]

Big blowup of convection as recon is on its way.

[caneman]

Big blowup of convection as recon is on its way.

https://imgur.com/zQFdDZh

I have a feeling upgrade to H1 will occur shortly. The northern edge is starting to fill in big time.

[GCANE]

Interesting how this may play out in the GoM as far as UL ventilation is concerned.
Franklin, ridge below Franklin, ULL over Mexico, and UL Trof in W GOM will all combine to pinch off outflow at 250mb.
There is a big kicker though.
If the vort column is unusually high; i.e. punches thru the tropopause, then all these external effects will turn around and help to strengthen Idalia.
Going to watch this effect closely.

[GCANE]

Judging from radar, looks like the new convective burst on IR, straight east of Cozumel is the CoC
20.5N 85.1W

[Clearcloudz]

11 feet storm surge in parts of Tampa Bay. Are officials in Tampa waiting for 11 AM advisory for evacuations cause they are cutting it close when it comes giving enough time to educate the people of what might happen.

[caneman]

Seriously blowing up on satellite!

[d3v123]

Waking up to everyone, professionals included, in Bradenton and St. Pete practically sounding the all clear alarm. Been a little disappointing to see the complete lack of concern around here

[GCANE]

AF309 has descended to 850mb Flight Level

[caneman]

Waking up to everyone, professionals included, in Bradenton and St. Pete practically sounding the all clear alarm. Been a little disappointing to see the complete lack of concern around here

I live in Largo - Indian rocks. I've not heard that at all. We are in the cone and some areas facing up to an 11 ft. Storm surge. Prepare for up to Cat 3. Winds

[caneman]

Waking up to everyone, professionals included, in Bradenton and St. Pete practically sounding the all clear alarm. Been a little disappointing to see the complete lack of concern around here

I live in Largo - Indian rocks. I've not heard that at all. We are in the cone and some areas facing up to an 11 ft. Storm surge. Prepare for up to Cat 3. Winds and expect minimum Cat. 1 winds.

[d3v123]

Waking up to everyone, professionals included, in Bradenton and St. Pete practically sounding the all clear alarm. Been a little disappointing to see the complete lack of concern around here

I live in Largo - Indian rocks. I've not heard that at all. We are in the cone and some areas facing up to an 11 ft. Storm surge. Prepare for up to Cat 3. Winds

Well I’m glad to hear that! Maybe it’s the attitude here in Manatee even though we’re not that far at all.