ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Michele B]

Waking up to everyone, professionals included, in Bradenton and St. Pete practically sounding the all clear alarm. Been a little disappointing to see the complete lack of concern around here

I live in Largo - Indian rocks. I've not heard that at all. We are in the cone and some areas facing up to an 11 ft. Storm surge. Prepare for up to Cat 3. Winds

When you’re within a couple hundred miles of a potential hurricane landfall, I would definitely NOT let your guard Dow down.

They told us here in SW FL that Ian was going to Tampa. After having gone through Charlie, I *knew* not to totally trust everything without using my own instincts.

[NAVAIDNICK]

I really hope my location bias and fatigue is not clouding my judgement, but I see this making landfall further south towards Sarasota.

A landfall south of Tampa Bay would be much better in terms of economic damage and casualties as it would limit or even prevent surge by blowing the water out the bay.

Obviously this is bad for those in Sarasota, Englewood , ect.., but in terms of potential poss of life it is a better scenario.

As someone who lives in Sarasota, I adamantly disagree that a southern/eastern landfall is a "better scenario", especially since there are a lot of people down here still recovering from Ian. I have neighbors with tarps on their roofs still and It's only been a couple of months since my house got repaired. I get that you think that because of it being less densely populated but the last thing that our communities need is to have to recover all over again. Heck, there are places down here that never recovered from Irma, so we don't need another "I" storm to undo all the progress we've made.

[TallyTracker]

11 feet storm surge in parts of Tampa Bay. Are officials in Tampa waiting for 11 AM advisory for evacuations cause they are cutting it close when it comes giving enough time to educate the people of what might happen.

https://i.imgur.com/ARtyJpp.jpg

They need to get those evacuations going now. Even Idalia passing on the current center of the track will flood the lower parts of the Tampa Bay Area. And Tampa is still in the cone only 36 hours out. That’s more than enough justification to start mandatory evacuations of the lower surge zones.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Definitely getting better confidence in the track forecast, with a 100-110 knot system making landfall in Cedar Key on Wednesday morning. That being said, I could definitely see more shifts south and east along the Florida coastline, perhaps even as far south as Hernando county. This could be a major storm surge event for the Tampa Bay area.

[GCANE]

Looking at CAPE distribution in the GOM, I am estimating RI will occur when Idalia gets to about 25N

[NDG]

Good morning after 5 hrs of good sleep.

I see Idalia started on its track north this morning as expected as Franklin started moving north last night.

[aspen]

Low 990s with 55 kt SFMR. The NHC was just about spot-on with their 988/55 intensity estimate for 5am.

[Clearcloudz]

11 feet storm surge in parts of Tampa Bay. Are officials in Tampa waiting for 11 AM advisory for evacuations cause they are cutting it close when it comes giving enough time to educate the people of what might happen.

https://i.imgur.com/ARtyJpp.jpg

They need to get those evacuations going now. Even Idalia passing on the current center of the track will flood the lower parts of the Tampa Bay Area. And Tampa is still in the cone only 36 hours out. That’s more than enough justification to start mandatory evacuations of the lower surge zones.

Recency bias is a real thing because Tampa Bay was evacuated during Ian and turned out to be nothing for Tampa Bay. Now they will wait till as long as they can before issuing anything. The stronger this storm gets the higher the chances of it turning east earlier than forecasted in my opinion. History shows that clearly.

[aspen]

LLC is at 20.6N and 85.15W.

[GCANE]

Recon
990.4 mb
20.6N 85.2W

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Recon
990.4 mb
20.6N 85.2W

Saw some 57 knot SFMRs too... although they may be rain contaminated.

[Chemmers]

Looks like the shear has drop to 15 knot now

[kevin]

Looks like the shear has drop to 15 knot now

Indeed, shear dropped at least 5 kt over the last 3 hours. If the trend continues it'll allow Idalia to get itself together faster. Also note the near-perfect shear environment for Franklin atm.

[GCANE]

About 90% RH thru the eye

[Poonwalker]

11 feet storm surge in parts of Tampa Bay. Are officials in Tampa waiting for 11 AM advisory for evacuations cause they are cutting it close when it comes giving enough time to educate the people of what might happen.

https://i.imgur.com/ARtyJpp.jpg

They need to get those evacuations going now. Even Idalia passing on the current center of the track will flood the lower parts of the Tampa Bay Area. And Tampa is still in the cone only 36 hours out. That’s more than enough justification to start mandatory evacuations of the lower surge zones.

Recency bias is a real thing because Tampa Bay was evacuated during Ian and turned out to be nothing for Tampa Bay. Now they will wait till as long as they can before issuing anything. The stronger this storm gets the higher the chances of it turning east earlier than forecasted in my opinion. History shows that clearly.

The stronger they are the more effect a trough has in the steering. This is true

[Jr0d]

I really hope my location bias and fatigue is not clouding my judgement, but I see this making landfall further south towards Sarasota.

A landfall south of Tampa Bay would be much better in terms of economic damage and casualties as it would limit or even prevent surge by blowing the water out the bay.

Obviously this is bad for those in Sarasota, Englewood , ect.., but in terms of potential poss of life it is a better scenario.

As someone who lives in Sarasota, I adamantly disagree that a southern/eastern landfall is a "better scenario", especially since there are a lot of people down here still recovering from Ian. I have neighbors with tarps on their roofs still and It's only been a couple of months since my house got repaired. I get that you think that because of it being less densely populated but the last thing that our communities need is to have to recover all over again. Heck, there are places down here that never recovered from Irma, so we don't need another "I" storm to undo all the progress we've made.

It is better in terms of potential loss of life.

A major hurricane making landfall at St. Pete or just north of Tampa Bay will put over one million at risk of being inundated with storm, especially many low income areas that have no means of evacuating.

While it is tough to say one area is better, despite the recovery effort from Ian, most of those living near the coast in surge prone areas from Sarasota south are not only capable of evacuating, they also have insurance and are statistically much better off economically than the many 'urban' areas of Tampa/St. Pete that could be potentially underwater.

While there is no good outcome, a landfall south of Tampa will no doubt cause countless less casualties than one as described.

Tampa is one of the most vulnerable areas in the US for a catastrophic surge event from a major hurricane. The only heavily populated area that is decidedly more vulnerable is New Orleans.

[tolakram]

I really hope my location bias and fatigue is not clouding my judgement, but I see this making landfall further south towards Sarasota.

A landfall south of Tampa Bay would be much better in terms of economic damage and casualties as it would limit or even prevent surge by blowing the water out the bay.

Obviously this is bad for those in Sarasota, Englewood , ect.., but in terms of potential poss of life it is a better scenario.

As someone who lives in Sarasota, I adamantly disagree that a southern/eastern landfall is a "better scenario", especially since there are a lot of people down here still recovering from Ian. I have neighbors with tarps on their roofs still and It's only been a couple of months since my house got repaired. I get that you think that because of it being less densely populated but the last thing that our communities need is to have to recover all over again. Heck, there are places down here that never recovered from Irma, so we don't need another "I" storm to undo all the progress we've made.

It is better it terms of potential loss of life.

A major hurricane making landfall at St. Pete or just north of Tampa Bay will put over one million at risk of being inundated with storm, especially many low income areas that have no means of evacuating.

While it is tough to say one area is better, despite the recovery effort from Ian, most of those living near the coast in surge prone areas from Sarasota south are not only capable of evacuating, they also have insurance and are statistically much better off economically than the many 'urban' areas of Tampa/St. Pete that could be potentially underwater.

While there is no good outcome, a landfall south of Tampa will no doubt cause countless less casualties than one as described.

Tampa is one of the most vulnerable areas in the US for a catastrophic surge event from a major hurricane. The only heavily populated area that is decidedly more vulnerable is New Orleans.

Let's stop where it might be better to hit please. The storm will go where it goes. EVERYONE should be prepared and not surprised if a wobble ruins their day.

[InfernoFlameCat]

This system is so similar to others that hit Florida as majors, the only difference is that it’s in august.

[GCANE]

Looks like dry air will be less of an issue.
That UL Dry Slot north of Idalia is starting to fire off convection along a dry line.
Around 24.5N 85W.

[Grumpy]

I really hope my location bias and fatigue is not clouding my judgement, but I see this making landfall further south towards Sarasota.

A landfall south of Tampa Bay would be much better in terms of economic damage and casualties as it would limit or even prevent surge by blowing the water out the bay.

Obviously this is bad for those in Sarasota, Englewood , ect.., but in terms of potential poss of life it is a better scenario.

As someone who lives in Sarasota, I adamantly disagree that a southern/eastern landfall is a "better scenario", especially since there are a lot of people down here still recovering from Ian. I have neighbors with tarps on their roofs still and It's only been a couple of months since my house got repaired. I get that you think that because of it being less densely populated but the last thing that our communities need is to have to recover all over again. Heck, there are places down here that never recovered from Irma, so we don't need another "I" storm to undo all the progress we've made.

From a fellow Sarasota resident, Amen