ATL: IDALIA - Models

[Teban54]

Once again, we're at the juncture where each model seems to have locked in on its own solution, yet they still can't seem to agree (worsened by the fact that even the smallest uncertainty has huge consequences in this case). And it's only 2 days out.

While GFS utterly failed with Ian last year, Euro also insisted on sending Laura to Galveston which didn't happen. We'll see what happens this time.

[jfk08c]

06z UKMET - decent shift E, and to the right of the Official Track.

https://i.imgur.com/DJU8RXP.png

UK was first to suggest a more eastward track with Ian IIRC. Will be watching future runs

[Poonwalker]

I went through all of the Global and Hurricane Model runs from 00z and some 06z. Most of them are still coming in between St. Marks and Keaton Beach. The NHC track still seems to far east compared to the consensus. Am I seeing that right?

They are leaning on the Euro as it has been the most consistent so far on this particular storm. GFS has kept showing a weaker system with steering more influenced by the ridging. The key is intensity and the strength of the trough digging in.

[tolakram]

Once again, we're at the juncture where each model seems to have locked in on its own solution, yet they still can't seem to agree (worsened by the fact that even the smallest uncertainty has huge consequences in this case). And it's only 2 days out.

While GFS utterly failed with Ian last year, Euro also insisted on sending Laura to Galveston which didn't happen. We'll see what happens this time.

All the tracks are very close this time, no steady drifting, no large outliers, all within the current cone. near SE Crawfordville (HWRF, HMON), near NW Cedar Key (HAFS-A, ICON), everything else in between. That's pretty good agreement in my opinion. For Ian we had solutions that kept creeping south, which was the first warning sign that the upper pattern was not locked in.

[chris_fit]

06z UKMET - decent shift E, and to the right of the Official Track.

https://i.imgur.com/DJU8RXP.png

UK was first to suggest a more eastward track with Ian IIRC. Will be watching future runs

I think this is the first time it's showing "the hook" or a hint of it.

Literally most every single major storm (outside of Michael) has always gone right of track last minute (Irma, Charley, Ian.) I do not envy NHC forecasters and officials in the TB area right now. Hermine was pretty benign, but was never forecast to be anything of significance like his one.

[tolakram]

6Z UK right down the middle.

[chris_fit]

6Z UK right down the middle.

https://i.imgur.com/rEsORVC.png

Thanks, I must have posted some other alteration of the UKMET then (UKXI)

[FLLurker32]

The models seem to always struggle with the gradient of the NE to ENE hook on the west coast approach and in the big bend area it makes a huge difference in impact.

[eastcoastFL]

[chris_fit]

06Z EPS

[sponger]

06Z EPS

https://i.imgur.com/m7UADoX.png

Looks like Cedar key and right through Jacksonville. Not good but manageable. May Tampa be spared the worst!

[FLLurker32]

06Z EPS

https://i.imgur.com/m7UADoX.png

This one looks to favor Cedar Key area as most likely. I doubt NHC will move their current track at the next advisory.

[chris_fit]

Official Forecast Trend

[canes92]

I think Hurricane Easy from 1950 might could be a good comparison.

[ronjon]

NHC track continues to be on the east edge of model guidance.

[FLLurker32]

NHC track continues to be on the east edge of model guidance.

NHC included this little blurb in their 4am discussion:

“It seems like Idalia is finally on the move, with aircraft fixes
indicating a northward motion of about 6 kt. This motion should
continue through Tuesday as Idalia moves between a mid-level trough
over the central Gulf of Mexico and a strengthening ridge over the
Greater Antilles. The storm is likely to move faster to the
north-northeast and northeast by early Wednesday due to a deeper
trough that is expected to swing across the mid-western United
States.”

I don’t think they’re confident in how the models are handling the steering with the trough.

[chris_fit]

Another view at the 06Z EPS. Only one takes it over Tampa.

[CronkPSU]

Another view at the 06Z EPS. Only one takes it over Tampa.

https://i.imgur.com/3gfgR1g.png

directly over...yes...but a lot of those would be close enough to cause some huge surges with the NE quad with cat 1 or 2 winds

[Steve]

Intensity models have soared into Cat 2 territory from TS/1 they had been showing.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png

Pretty unique setup for a NE Gulf hit with an intensifying til landfall hit which NHC is currently forecasting to be a major at landfall. You may not see this again (if their forecast verifies) the remainder of your life.

[toad strangler]

The 6z GFS tries to loop sloppy Idalia remnants around and back to N FL and GA in the long range.