ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Drewsey]

Ugh.

Hate this.

"I" storm. In the Gulf. In August. Gives me the heebie jeebies.

As a survivor of another 'I' storm in the Gulf in August (Ida), I urge everyone in the possible path of this thing to get ready NOW. Have your plan NOW. If you're going to leave, do so as soon as possible. If you're going to stay, get your supplies before the rush.

This! Lots of folks waited to the last moment to leave for Ida and more decided to stay. Even in my neighborhood, there was no catastrophic damage, but folks that stayed behind had to deal with weeks without running water and a month with no electricity. IE.. no gas, no grocery stores, no ice, baby wipe/water bottle baths, etc.. couldn’t flush your toilet unless you wanted to waste drinking water. (Tip: garbage bags, a bucket, and good ole kitty litter was a life saver LOL) We couldn’t even drive anywhere even if you had gas because roads were impassible.

I think folks focus too narrowly when it comes to these storms. Impacts can be larger than you can imagine.

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

983.2mb extrap

[zipperbaum]

LONG time lurker... I lived on Tampa Bay until last year. Tropical Storm Eta 2020 came up the coast that year. My 600 sq foot dock was torn off the piers between 2 and 6 a.m. and deposited into my backyard. This dock was untouched for 20 years, with multiple storm surge events over that time. The power of the storm surge was unbelievable, and this was a baby compared to what may be coming. Anyone living within 10 miles of the bay needs to take this way more seriously than the locals around me are currently doing. Rant over.

[fllawyer]

I’ll be watching for when the storm crosses 85W. Current forecast calls for that to happen sometime midday tomorrow (Tuesday). Seems if it crosses earlier then a more southerly/easterly track is more possible.

[eastcoastFL]

Idalia rally looks to be consolidating around the circulation. Not so sloppy anymore, the big blow up of convection is persistent and it seems to be slowly becoming less lopsided.

[InfernoFlameCat]

983.2mb extrap

Huh, that’s quite a drop in only a couple hours.

[Extratropical94]

983.2mb extrap

Huh, that’s quite a drop in only a couple hours.

That's likely the low bias of the NOAA plane. The previous NOAA pass had 983.9 mb

[Michele B]

I’ll be watching for when the storm crosses 85W. Current forecast calls for that to happen sometime midday tomorrow (Tuesday). Seems if it crosses earlier then a more southerly/easterly track is more possible.

I would like to see a discussion about this....

I thought a stronger storm would move more poleward by nature, but a weaker one be more impacted by the currents around it.

This one appears to be poised to get carried away by the trough as it sweeps through. But it's also predicted to become a strong (Cat 3) storm.

So what do I not understand?

[cheezyWXguy]

983.2mb extrap

Huh, that’s quite a drop in only a couple hours.

That plane is flying at a higher altitude and looks to have a low bias. The previous pass by this plane measured around 985 while other plane flying at lower altitude got 991 around the same time

[InfernoFlameCat]

I’ll be watching for when the storm crosses 85W. Current forecast calls for that to happen sometime midday tomorrow (Tuesday). Seems if it crosses earlier then a more southerly/easterly track is more possible.

I would like to see a discussion about this....

I thought a stronger storm would move more poleward by nature, but a weaker one be more impacted by the currents around it.

This one appears to be poised to get carried away by the trough as it sweeps through. But it's also predicted to become a strong (Cat 3) storm.

So what do I not understand?

Hurricane Franklin is a big reason why. It is creating a path for Idalia to travel through while a ridge forms over the eastern Us. At least, that’s my understanding of what’s happening.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think there are some problems with instruments on the NOAA plane. They have been running through the same areas as the AF plane and getting very different readings. Those 60kt + readings the AF had earlier are not showing up on the NOAA plane (and they seem to be having problems with surface readings). The NOAA plane has also been getting much lower pressures, yet the dropsondes are more in line with the AF plane.

[InfernoFlameCat]

983.2mb extrap

Huh, that’s quite a drop in only a couple hours.

That plane is flying at a higher altitude and looks to have a low bias. The previous pass by this plane measured around 985 while other plane flying at lower altitude got 991 around the same time

So what’s the pressure then?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I think there are some problems with instruments on the NOAA plane. They have been running through the same areas as the AF plane and getting very different readings. Those 60kt + readings the AF had earlier are not showing up on the NOAA plane (and they seem to be having problems with surface readings. The NOAA plane has also been getting much lower pressures, yet the dropsondes are more in line with the AF plane.

The NOAA flight isn't a low level recon flight like the USAF one.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Huh, that’s quite a drop in only a couple hours.

That plane is flying at a higher altitude and looks to have a low bias. The previous pass by this plane measured around 985 while other plane flying at lower altitude got 991 around the same time

So what’s the pressure then?

The last drop was 990. That's what I would go with

[Teban54]

I think there are some problems with instruments on the NOAA plane. They have been running through the same areas as the AF plane and getting very different readings. Those 60kt + readings the AF had earlier are not showing up on the NOAA plane (and they seem to be having problems with surface readings). The NOAA plane has also been getting much lower pressures, yet the dropsondes are more in line with the AF plane.

NOAA planes have always had a low bias in pressure IIRC. But not sure about FL winds.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I’ll be watching for when the storm crosses 85W. Current forecast calls for that to happen sometime midday tomorrow (Tuesday). Seems if it crosses earlier then a more southerly/easterly track is more possible.

I would like to see a discussion about this....

I thought a stronger storm would move more poleward by nature, but a weaker one be more impacted by the currents around it.

This one appears to be poised to get carried away by the trough as it sweeps through. But it's also predicted to become a strong (Cat 3) storm.

So what do I not understand?

That isn't necessarily always true. A stronger storm will feel the steering higher up in the atmosphere, where a weak storm will be steered at the lower levels.

[CronkPSU]

I’ll be watching for when the storm crosses 85W. Current forecast calls for that to happen sometime midday tomorrow (Tuesday). Seems if it crosses earlier then a more southerly/easterly track is more possible.

I would like to see a discussion about this....

I thought a stronger storm would move more poleward by nature, but a weaker one be more impacted by the currents around it.

This one appears to be poised to get carried away by the trough as it sweeps through. But it's also predicted to become a strong (Cat 3) storm.

So what do I not understand?

That isn't necessarily always true. A stronger storm will feel the steering higher up in the atmosphere, where a weak storm will be steered at the lower levels.

we saw this with Charley and Ian and it is why so many of us are afraid of another quicker and steeper right hook than where it is forecast

[GCANE]

40mm/hr rain rate
Core is heating up

[Iceresistance]

Huh, that’s quite a drop in only a couple hours.

That plane is flying at a higher altitude and looks to have a low bias. The previous pass by this plane measured around 985 while other plane flying at lower altitude got 991 around the same time

So what’s the pressure then?

NOAA3 did the eye drop, and confirmed the 990 mb that others have talked about

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgghL.png