ATL: FRANKLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[kevin]

12H 29/0000Z 29.0N 71.2W 135 KT 155 MPH

Which basically means = decent chance for a cat 5, but only if recon confirms it. They (almost) never explicitly forecast a cat 5.

[Ntxw]

Gorgeous. I think Dora and Mawar had better presentations at times, but this is definitely up there for storm of the year with looks.

[aspen]

I’m assuming we’ll have recon in Franklin again tonight. We’ve had morning and evening flights for the past few days. Assuming an EWRC doesn’t start anytime this afternoon — which is a pretty big if — recon should hopefully be in a prime position to capture peak intensity. Or it’ll be like Sam and they only get there right as an EWRC starts.

I’m surprised the NHC didn’t go a little higher at 11am, given Franklin’s continued satellite improvement and how fast it was deepening. It might already be around 130-135 kt. Also, that last eye drop supported 935 mbar.

[aspen]

Franklin’s eye is getting close to Dorian-levels of warm and well-defined. ADT says it’s around 20C (and has an intensity estimate of only 115-120 kt), and it could get warmer this afternoon. It’s probably an upper end 4 right now.

[HurricaneEnzo]

What a monster. I can't imagine it's any less than 130-135kts right now. Seems destined for Cat 5.

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[Iceresistance]

Consistent Lightning in the eyewall

[cycloneye]

The next recon mission that departs at 4:30 PM will be very important because of the possibility of reaching cat 5.

[aspen]

The next recon mission that departs at 4:30 PM will be very important because of the possibility of reaching cat 5.

Oh nice that’s a few hours earlier than I was expecting. Hopefully it’s there to capture Franklin’s peak

[Sciencerocks]

[FireRat]

Whoa Franklin!! Jeevus man, went full beast mode today! Looks like Dorian almost, getting close to a 5 on looks I'd say

[Kazmit]

The subtropics are the new tropics. Cat 5 this far north used to be unheard of.

[zzzh]

ERC could happen at any time. Hope it happens after 00z.

[cainjamin]

Wow. What a beautiful storm. I agree, and ERC could happen at any moment. Hopefully not before recon arrives!

[aspen]

18z BT is unchanged thanks to satellite estimates remaining well below what recon found. This is at least 130 kt.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/1696237934301561106

[CrazyC83]

With such a warm eye, you could probably make a case for T7.0. I'm thinking Recon will find a cat 5 tonight if an ERC does not occur.

It's north of the TUTT and in extremely warm water so it really shouldn't be all too surprising.

[underthwx]

Is Franklin considered to be, or will it be a annular hurricane?....not sure if this has been discussed already, but I'm curious...thx

[Kingarabian]

https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/1696237934301561106

You could get a 7.0 without super intense cold tops since the eye is very symmetrical and warm. Comes down to thickness.

[Kingarabian]

Is Franklin considered to be, or will it be a annular hurricane?....not sure if this has been discussed already, but I'm curious...thx

No not yet. Still see some (excellent) banding.

[Hurricane2022]

FRANKLIN
Location: 28.9N, 70.8W

Depart time: 28/2030Z (1 hour and 0 minutes from now)

Entry time: 28/2300Z

Fix time: 28/2330Z

Exit time: 29/0230Z

Altitude: SFC TO 10,000

Mission Type: FIX

I know, you know, we know, everybody knows what the are chances that Hurricane Franklin is weakening when the recon gets there.