ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

.2' clicks N(12miles) over the last three hours could be momentary or it could be another stall?The ULL is in the way for the time being is what pushed it S a couple of days ago.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid

I was just about to say it doesn’t seem to be moving much on visible.

[chris_fit]

Pretty large Windfield there to the E.

[eastcoastFL]

Visible with model and surface obs overlay

[NAVAIDNICK]

Mid level dry air has been holding back Idalia past couple of days. However, the atmosphere in the eastern GOM looks to be mixing out the dry air. Look for steady intensification the next day until Idalia is removed from the Yucatan. Idalia will be traveling along with the upper winds so little relative wind shear at the hurricane approaches the coast. RI is a real possibility with this cyclone. I've witnessed this scenario play out in the past.....Opal, Charley ect. Not saying it will happen but possible based on previous occurrences. Y'all in the path of Idalia leave if you are in a surge area please......MGC

Craig Setzer, Chief Meteorologist for Royal Caribbean, used to repeat the rule of thumb, "Run from water, hide from wind". To your point MGC, if you are in a surge OR flood zone, go somewhere else. Families in my neighborhood, 12 miles inland, had to be rescued by boat after Ian because the canals flooded. My house sits at an elevation of 21 ft so I felt safe here but only because I had that info. Even if you are inland, you can still be flooded out. Know your Zone!

[dpep4]

Can breathe a little easier in St. Pete, I hope?

TWSS

(That's What Sanibel Said...this far out last year. And then....)

I believe Sanibel lost his mother during Ian. My prayers still out to him.

Sorry, it was a reference to the island, and more generally to the area. A location starting with S that was hit after the track shifted. I didn't realize someone here had that name, so have corrected the original post to Sanibel (Island). (Though kinda feel like crap now. Sorry, innocent mistake.)

The point remains, minor shifts in tracks can have a big difference in outcomes. I'd keep my guard up until it passes me.

[Frank P]

Pretty large Windfield there to the E.


https://i.imgur.com/9oefZJe.png

That large field will only exacerbate the surge on the east side of the storm. Not to wish this on anyone but hope is stays far enough from Tampa Bay to help minimize the extreme damage out of the most populated areas. I imagine the pucker pressure is pretty high along the Big Ben area and down the west coast and hope it comes in less than a Major for sure.

[xironman]

Land interaction with cuba wil just spread the windfield to the east.

[Ianswfl]

Is it me or is she slowing down the last couple hours?

[Cat5James]

 https://x.com/zachcoveytv/status/1696203060316455178

[GCANE]

New hot tower firing on the CoC

[Sanibel]

Drove 24 hours straight from New York to Sanibel...

Going to clear porches and secure house...Hurricane should strip the tarps from Ian off my still-wrecked house...

Costco gas was nearing panic with people getting heated with others and using nasty words - but only half way to real panic...I only waited about 10 minutes and got my gas...

[MGC]

Pretty large Windfield there to the E.


https://i.imgur.com/9oefZJe.png

That large field will only exacerbate the surge on the east side of the storm. Not to wish this on anyone but hope is stays far enough from Tampa Bay to help minimize the extreme damage out of the most populated areas. I imagine the pucker pressure is pretty high along the Big Ben area and down the west coast and hope it comes in less than a Major for sure.

Have to keep an eye on Idalia's wind field. Compact hurricane will have much less surge (usually) as compared to one with large circulations (Ike, Ivan, Katrina)......MGC

[tolakram]

Drove 24 hours straight from New York to Sanibel...

Going to clear porches and secure house...Hurricane should strip the tarps from Ian off my still-wrecked house...

Costco gas was nearing panic with people getting heated with others and using nasty words - but only half way to real panic...I only waited about 10 minutes and got my gas...

Hi Sanibel, be safe and take care!

[Iceresistance]

New hot tower firing on the CoC

Good timing too as Recon is about to make a center pass

AF309 is reporting 60 knot FL winds, and rain rates up to 45 mm/hr

[fllawyer]

Tampa Airport closing at 12:01am Tuesday, anticipates re-opening Thursday morning. https://news.tampaairport.com/tampa-international-airport-to-close-early-tuesday-ahead-of-potential-major-hurricane/.

[FLLurker32]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/temp/tcmovieFinal.gif

Visible with model and surface obs overlay

Looks like it’s just to the right of the forecast.

[Iceresistance]

New explosive convection at the CoC has a lot of lightning.


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/Sgg4g.gif

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Did the models all initialize Idalia at 85W? -yet she appears to be east of that longitude already. These little differences in the initialization will cause the models to be off at least a little in where they end up, even if their methodology of where landfall will be is sound. i.e. if off by 75m west, result equals a landfall 75miles to the east if the reasoning behind the projected path holds true.

[eastcoastFL]

You can see the wind field is pretty large to the east

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Tampa Airport closing at 12:01am Tuesday, anticipates re-opening Thursday morning. https://news.tampaairport.com/tampa-international-airport-to-close-early-tuesday-ahead-of-potential-major-hurricane/.

So that ought to be extra fun for me!
I am supposed to be flying out Thursday night for RDU.