ATL: IDALIA - Models

[Steve]

NAVGEM with the slower/right shift.

https://i.imgur.com/5rOJjPN.gif

I don't love that. (Pasco County)

It's the NAVGEM though. It might get one right in 10 years if it's different from the other global models.

[LarryWx]

So, regarding the 12Z runs vs 0Z runs in summary for FL landfall, 4 of 5 shifted NW/left (though mainly slight other than UKMET's 65 mile shift) while the CMC is the lone model that shifted SE/right a bit.

[Blown Away]

12z Euro… Goes NE from there into Taylor/Dixie Counties…

[BobHarlem]

Surprised no one posted the 12GFS Idialia loop back into Florida then Louisiana, so here it is.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS… NE into Perry County from there…

[LandoWill]

NAVGEM with the slower/right shift.

https://i.imgur.com/5rOJjPN.gif

I don't love that. (Pasco County)

i think we ok... hoping, this west shift continues

[HurricaneBelle]

12z GFS… NE into Perry County from there…

That's Taylor County, which contains Perry

[chris_fit]

Early 18z guidance. Expect a slight shift to the left on the next NHC track update at 5pm.

[Mouton]

Looks like the 18Z models have shifted left of the NHC model. Interesting as the one I follow closely is the UKmet which I think moved the most west.

[AnnularCane]

Early 18z guidance. Expect a poop slight to the left on the next NHC track update at 5pm.

[chris_fit]

Early 18z guidance. Expect a poop slight to the left on the next NHC track update at 5pm.

Hahahah - I left a letter out in 'shift' and it changed it to poop lol

[eastcoastFL]

Early 18z guidance. Expect a slight shift to the left on the next NHC track update at 5pm.

https://i.imgur.com/c6BCGMt.png

What is going on with that loop back ?

[chris_fit]

Early 18z guidance. Expect a slight shift to the left on the next NHC track update at 5pm.

https://i.imgur.com/c6BCGMt.png

What is going on with that loop back ?

GFS Special. Actually, some EPS members show this too.

[Stratton23]

I think the reason we are seeing some guidance making a loop back is due to a ridge building in blocking Idalias exit out to sea or up the east coast, its going to be dependent on what happens with franklin

[gatorcane]

Looks like the EPS has shifted to the east a bit with the stronger members on the east side landfalling around Cedar Key:

[KimmieLa]

[quote="BobHarlem"]Surprised no one posted the 12GFS Idialia loop back into Florida then Louisiana, so here it is.

Anytime I see models sniffing out loops, I start looking for possible direction changes. It doesn't have to be big changes, but, sometimes these models see things we just don't. And, that's why we got 'em! To give us a possible heads up. This loop will probably not pan out, but, what is it seeing to make it want to loop is my question. Just a thought.

[BobHarlem]

Early 18z guidance. Expect a slight shift to the left on the next NHC track update at 5pm.

https://i.imgur.com/c6BCGMt.png

What is going on with that loop back ?

GFS Special. Actually, some EPS members show this too.

[chris_fit]

Looks like the EPS has shifted to the east a bit with the stronger members on the east side landfalling around Cedar Key:

https://i.postimg.cc/bJSRtMpr/IMG-0891.png

There's no need to bring this kind of negativity here.... We were doing swell with the west shifts.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the EPS has shifted to the east a bit with the stronger members on the east side landfalling around Cedar Key:

https://i.postimg.cc/bJSRtMpr/IMG-0891.png

There's no need to bring this kind of negativity here.... We were doing swell with the west shifts.

Can you post the zoomed in view with the mean track?

[chris_fit]

Looks like the EPS has shifted to the east a bit with the stronger members on the east side landfalling around Cedar Key:

https://i.postimg.cc/bJSRtMpr/IMG-0891.png

There's no need to bring this kind of negativity here.... We were doing swell with the west shifts.

Can you post the zoomed in view with the mean track?

Looks to be E of the Ops