ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/4003/fFfiyK.gif

Not to shabby for a strong El Niño eh.. Thought the season was supposed to shut down lol?

[CryHavoc]

That suggests a pressure of 983 mb with that dropsonde. But nothing to support stronger winds.

In your professional opinion, how far can the pressure drop before the winds catch up?

It varies wildly by storm.

Ike in 2008 notably saw some pretty dramatic pressure drops with only minor increases in wind speed - instead the wind field expanded greatly. IIRC he made landfall around 952 mb with "only" 110mph winds.

[AxaltaRacing24]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/4003/fFfiyK.gif

Not to shabby for a strong El Niño eh.. Thought the season was supposed to shut down lol?

10/3/2 heading into September in a strong Nino is impressive no doubt.

[johngaltfla]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/4003/fFfiyK.gif

Not to shabby for a strong El Niño eh.. Thought the season was supposed to shut down lol?

10/3/2 heading into September in a strong Nino is impressive no doubt.

It's a conspiracy to keep me from ever winning the S2K prediction game.

Back to our regularly scheduled hurricane.

[GCANE]

The anti-cyclone anchored over the Yucatan has kept Idalia's vort column tilted all day.
Looks like a PV Streamer is starting to impinge on the anti-cyclone which will weaken it.
Also, Idalia moving away from the anti-cyclone will also help to get the vort column stacked.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/4003/fFfiyK.gif

Not to shabby for a strong El Niño eh.. Thought the season was supposed to shut down lol?

I think the people who believed that moderate El Niño certainly meant a dead Atlantic with no notable systems are scrambling to grab their jaws from the ground

[aspen]

AF304 looks to be having trouble finding Idalia’s LLC.

[zzzh]

AF304 looks to be having trouble finding Idalia’s LLC.

NOAA crew has no trouble doing that. No idea what the AF plane is doing.

[FLLurker32]

WESH 2 in Central Florida still sharing that their in-house FutureCast model is East on the cone with hurricane impacts to north central FL.

[jlauderdal]

WESH 2 in Central Florida still sharing that their in-house FutureCast model is East on the cone with hurricane impacts to north central FL.

Eric burris will die on that hill, will see if it verifies

[Bocadude85]

AF304 looks to be having trouble finding Idalia’s LLC.

Is it because it is over the western tip of Cuba? That’s where the newest blow up of convection is.

[dukeblue219]

WESH 2 in Central Florida still sharing that their in-house FutureCast model is East on the cone with hurricane impacts to north central FL.

These "in-house" models aren't anything special. They may guess right now and then, but I wouldn't put any stock in it compared to the big globals or even the well-known hurricane models.

[cycloneye]

AF304 looks to be having trouble finding Idalia’s LLC.

Is it because it is over the western tip of Cuba? That’s where the newest blow up of convection is.

Bingo. Avoiding the western tip.

[Keldeo1997]

Attempting to wrap

[FLLurker32]

WESH 2 in Central Florida still sharing that their in-house FutureCast model is East on the cone with hurricane impacts to north central FL.

Eric burris will die on that hill, will see if it verifies

It’s their chief meteorologist, Tony Mainolfi, posting it this time. They’ll either be vindicated or bust big time. We’ll see.

[cheezyWXguy]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/1145877932535971871/IMG_5723.png

Attempting to wrap

Was about to say, this is the best attempt Ive seen yet. Probably still a ways off though.

[Zonacane]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/1145877932535971871/IMG_5723.png

Attempting to wrap

That's the farthest I've seen an attempt get so far

[GCANE]

Not a lot of pop ups over the Yucatan today.
Updraft is weak which in turn weakens the anti-cyclone.

[Bocadude85]

AF304 looks to be having trouble finding Idalia’s LLC.

Is it because it is over the western tip of Cuba? That’s where the newest blow up of convection is.

Bingo. Avoiding the western tip.

If the coc truly is moving over western Cuba then she is east of all the 18z model guidance

[GCANE]

Pretty dry close to the CoC 950mb to about 775mb
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... 9-0001.png