ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chaser1]

There are clear signs on satellite imagery that Idalia is on the cusp of hurricane strength. Infrared shows an expanding canopy, with building cloud tops in the southern quadrant:
https://i.postimg.cc/kXdZcmty/goes16-ir-10-L-202308282107.gif

Using meso sector visible imagery, we can also see clear gravity wave oscillations that are causing perturbations in the developing CDO of Idalia this evening:
https://i.postimg.cc/nrHnNQPH/goes16-vis-meso1.gif

I have a question about those gravity waves that I had when I initially saw that loop, if I may.

Why are they emanating from the left of the CDO and moving laterally across it instead of forming where the convection is overshooting near the center and propagating more symmetrically, radially outward?

Thanks!

100% guess here as I truly do not know. I had considered that effect to possibly reflect the actual "clash" against the inbound undercutting shear pushing toward the center, as the convective explosion of rising updrafts met it

[CronkPSU]

still no hurricane force winds according to recon?

[Sciencerocks]

[Cat5James]

https://x.com/ericburriswesh/status/169 ... 8tytEDbELw

[chaser1]

still no hurricane force winds according to recon?

Lets see if we can get this TS down to 977. I'll say this much, once a really defined inner core does establish itself, those winds are gonna jump like a NASA liftoff

[Teban54]

still no hurricane force winds according to recon?

If there are any hurricane-force winds, they're probably near or over Cuba and therefore can't be sampled by recon. The NOAA plane was also flying at a higher altitude and therefore likely reporting lower FL winds.

[tropicwatch]

When HH can actually get into the center, they might finally be able to report an eye feature.

[wx98]

Appears to me that the NOAA plane possibly had clearance to enter Cuban airspace, whereas the AF plane is having to wait/circle around. Could be the differences in altitude but I don't see why that little strip of land would keep them so far away.

[cycloneye]

still no hurricane force winds according to recon?

If there are any hurricane-force winds, they're probably near or over Cuba and therefore can't be sampled by recon. The NOAA plane was also flying at a higher altitude and therefore likely reporting lower FL winds.

NOAA plane has ended mission and the Air Force one is still out there. Now, they are flying to the north of the tip of Cuba to see if they can pass thru the center.

[cheezyWXguy]

Mid level and low level centers are not quite aligned yet, so don’t expect to see an eye quickly pop out for a while. Clear indication of this is that the lowest pressure was found a bit removed from the wind shift location. However, given that we currently have a ts with the pressure of a borderline cat2, I’m concerned we have a powder keg waiting for a fuse

[zzzh]

Radar indicates that the latest attempt to wrap is sheared off.

[Zonacane]

Mid level and low level centers are not quite aligned yet, so don’t expect to see an eye quickly pop out for a while. Clear indication of this is that the lowest pressure was found a bit removed from the wind shift location. However, given that we currently have a ts with the pressure of a borderline cat2, I’m concerned we have a powder keg waiting for a fuse

They did not get the center, its likely the storm has a lower pressure

[chaser1]

I see 4 eyes now Okay, enough already. Either Idalia is trolling me or I need a break from wobble watching

[Gatos del Sol]

Appears to me that the NOAA plane possibly had clearance to enter Cuban airspace, whereas the AF plane is having to wait/circle around. Could be the differences in altitude but I don't see why that little strip of land would keep them so far away.

If memory serves, it’s easier to get an agreement with the Cuban government for civilian overflights of Cuba than military ones, even if the military flight is for non-military research/humanitarian reasons.

[Michele B]

Models shifting west and Idalia hugging east of guidance. I could be -removed- but something with that just feels off.

I agree. Idalia looks like she's right over that little Jut of land in Cuba, which I didn't think she was supposed to do, so will that have an impact on the track? IDK

[cheezyWXguy]

Mid level and low level centers are not quite aligned yet, so don’t expect to see an eye quickly pop out for a while. Clear indication of this is that the lowest pressure was found a bit removed from the wind shift location. However, given that we currently have a ts with the pressure of a borderline cat2, I’m concerned we have a powder keg waiting for a fuse

They did not get the center, its likely the storm has a lower pressure

The wind shift point is likely over Cuba, but the 979.0 reading was found just sw off the tip of Cuba. This suggests the centers are not quite aligned, and more than likely explains why the last core wrap didn’t quite succeed. Give it time, it’ll come around.

[Poonwalker]

I see 4 eyes now Okay, enough already. Either Idalia is trolling me or I need a break from wobble watching

Yeah. These things bring out the worst in my OCD. I can see this wobbling along the NHC path and giving me an ulcer when it’s all said and done.

[Zonacane]

Mid level and low level centers are not quite aligned yet, so don’t expect to see an eye quickly pop out for a while. Clear indication of this is that the lowest pressure was found a bit removed from the wind shift location. However, given that we currently have a ts with the pressure of a borderline cat2, I’m concerned we have a powder keg waiting for a fuse

They did not get the center, its likely the storm has a lower pressure

The wind shift point is likely over Cuba, but the 979.0 reading was found just sw off the tip of Cuba. This suggests the centers are not quite aligned, and more than likely explains why the last core wrap didn’t quite succeed. Give it time, it’ll come around.

Hard to say without recon being able to go through Cuban airspace

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1696335689770586136

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1696346676418507092