ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Poonwalker]

Are the pink pixels on IR showing the developing eyewall?
https://i.postimg.cc/QCR2N1v9/goes16-ir-10-L-202308290127.gif

I had mistakenly thought the same thing. At least with this particular storm, it appears that these uber-cold cloud tops merely represent the highest/coldest tops essentially being exhausted out to the southeast in part due to the westerly shear hampering the storm. Whats interesting to me is, while this itself does not necessarily represent true forward motion of the storm, it does perhaps point to the location of the mid to upper level tilted well to the right of the LLC. Whats interesting to me is that I would perceive that greater northeast tilt to at least induce the LLC to pull itself under and it is that function that may be responsible for the slighr east of north motion we have been noticing. Honestly if I were folks in Tampa, i'd probably be rooting for this storm to get its act together as quick as possible. I can only see any ongoing misalignment as a result of (upper OR undercutting) shear as a potential cause for Idalia's track to "lean" more to the right. The last thing that the broad Tampa Bay region want to see is any track that might bring a major hurricane wind and storm surge threat closer to their coastline.

My question is would a stronger storm that is tracking closer to the inside line turn northeast sooner when the trough digs in. That is the worry.

[LandoWill]

Special advisory in the next hour or so? What you’ll think?

because of how fast it's going now?

2 hours 21.7 to 22.5 ?

[Fancy1002]

For the first time in a while, I can actually see a definitive spin and direct movement. It’s finally getting its act together.

[pcolaman]

https://imgur.com/ict1yTA.
Kinda ironic?

[chaser1]

Are the pink pixels on IR showing the developing eyewall?
https://i.postimg.cc/QCR2N1v9/goes16-ir-10-L-202308290127.gif

I had mistakenly thought the same thing. At least with this particular storm, it appears that these uber-cold cloud tops merely represent the highest/coldest tops essentially being exhausted out to the southeast in part due to the westerly shear hampering the storm. Whats interesting to me is, while this itself does not necessarily represent true forward motion of the storm, it does perhaps point to the location of the mid to upper level tilted well to the right of the LLC. Whats interesting to me is that I would perceive that greater northeast tilt to at least induce the LLC to pull itself under and it is that function that may be responsible for the slighr east of north motion we have been noticing. Honestly if I were folks in Tampa, i'd probably be rooting for this storm to get its act together as quick as possible. I can only see any ongoing misalignment as a result of (upper OR undercutting) shear as a potential cause for Idalia's track to "lean" more to the right. The last thing that the broad Tampa Bay region want to see is any track that might bring a major hurricane wind and storm surge threat closer to their coastline.

My question is would a stronger storm that is tracking closer to the inside line turn northeast sooner when the trough digs in. That is the worry.

Hard to say. A deeper storm is more apt to move within any deep layer flow and clearly would react to the mid level flow as it turns more poleward ahead of a dropping or retrograding trough. Thus the forecasted northly motion for nearterm motion. If and when that flow changes from southerly to southwesterly then a strong vertically sound storm would be swept generally northeast within that flow.

[Fancy1002]

:double: https://imgur.com/ict1yTA.
Kinda ironic?

What is?

[Fancy1002]

:double: https://imgur.com/ict1yTA.
Kinda ironic?

If I’m correct, Michael had far more time to strengthen as it went through the gulf then idalia will.

[Ianswfl]

Seems the 00z models initialized her too far west again. Her position looks about 30 miles east of where the models show.

[Fancy1002]

:double: https://imgur.com/ict1yTA.
Kinda ironic?

If she had gotten better organized this morning and strengthen throughout the day, then I would say that there’s an OK comparison, but that didn’t happen.

[pcolaman]

:double: https://imgur.com/ict1yTA.
Kinda ironic?

If she had gotten better organized this morning and strengthen throughout the day, then I would say that there’s an OK comparison, but that didn’t happen.

I was just comparing locations and Michael was a tropical storm around the same area. As far as strengthening, we'll I see shear about to let up and winds catching up with the pressure drops . Can only lead to one thing with perfect SSts. Been thru quite a few big ones and have watched patterns.

[FLpanhandle91]

Mid-level shear appears to be almost gone. Northwestern outflow is nice and healthy. Convection fully wrapped around the center now. I believe we are on the precipice of rapid intensification.

[cheezyWXguy]

In the mid and upper levels, Idalia has likely closed off an eyewall. Radar shows this now, but the beam (edit: from key west) is measuring up at 45kft. Question is, has the low level center aligned with it yet? I’d guess it’s still working that out, but once it does, an actual clearing should show up fairly quickly.

[Bocadude85]

In the mid and upper levels, Idalia has likely closed off an eyewall. Radar shows this now, but the beam (edit: from key west) is measuring up at 45kft. Question is, has the low level center aligned with it yet? I’d guess it’s still working that out, but once it does, an actual clearing should show up fairly quickly.

Agreed, the last few frames of the Cuban radar is certainly looking interesting.

[FLpanhandle91]

Recon setting up for a WSW to ENE pass. Should sample the strongest part of the storm. Possible they find a hurricane.

[cheezyWXguy]

Recon setting up for a WSW to ENE pass. Should sample the strongest part of the storm. Possible they find a hurricane.

I have to imagine they will. It’s hard to imagine that winds would hold off on catching up to a pressure in the 970s for long, especially given the improvements in radar presentation since the previous pass

[drewschmaltz]

:double: https://imgur.com/ict1yTA.
Kinda ironic?

If I’m correct, Michael had far more time to strengthen as it went through the gulf then idalia will.

This made me do a little research. It lead to me realizing how aggressive the intensity forecast is with Idalia.

Oct 8 11am est Michael became a hurricane.
Oct 10 12:30pm Michael made landfall as a cat 5

49.5 hours.

Let's assume
Aug 29 5am est Idalia becomes a hurricane
Aug 30 7am est Idalia makes landfall

26 hours.

26 hours after Michael became a hurricane, he hadn't quite reached cat 3. Michael is known for rapid intensification, and Idalia is forecasted to intensify even more quickly. This really goes to show how aggressive the intensity forecast is.

Edit: if recon finds a hurricane right now, it's still hard to think any more than cat 3 could happen. It would have to be historic.

[FLpanhandle91]

Welp...

[Fancy1002]

:double: https://imgur.com/ict1yTA.
Kinda ironic?

If I’m correct, Michael had far more time to strengthen as it went through the gulf then idalia will.

This made me do a little research. It lead to me realizing how aggressive the intensity forecast is with Idalia.

Oct 8 11am est Michael became a hurricane.
Oct 10 12:30pm Michael made landfall as a cat 5

49.5 hours.

Let's assume
Aug 29 5am est Idalia becomes a hurricane
Aug 30 7am est Idalia makes landfall

26 hours.

26 hours after Michael became a hurricane, he hadn't quite reached cat 3. Michael is known for rapid intensification, and Idalia is forecasted to intensify even more quickly. This really goes to show how aggressive the intensity forecast is.

Edit: if recon finds a hurricane right now, it's still hard to think any more than cat 3 could happen. It would have to be historic.

I guess we’ll have to come back after she’s made landfall and do a comparison.

[Hurricaneman]

https://i.imgur.com/YVa8WVX.jpg

Welp...

Looks like a pinhole eye, could lead to rapid intensification shortly

[Fancy1002]

Part of me is glad for the shear, because it halted idalia strengthening, and likely prevented it from becoming a monster, but the other part of me is mad at the shear because I wanted to see her become a monster.