ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sgastorm]

At 4:34Z on Tuesday, observation 21 had a note of interest:

RADAR FIX EYE 22.25N 84.84W LIMITED RADAR PRESENTATION DIAM 16NM OPEN SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST

[IcyTundra]

No one is talking about the support for Idalia to do an Ivan and loop around. Canadian, GFS show it, Euro, GFS, and CMC ensembles as well. Pretty good agreement here. Goes into South FL.

Still way down the road if models are still showing it once it emerges off the coast then it will be more interesting.

[LandoWill]

At 4:34Z on Tuesday, observation 21 had a note of interest:

RADAR FIX EYE 22.25N 84.84W LIMITED RADAR PRESENTATION DIAM 16NM OPEN SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST

is it supposed to already have crossed 85?

[caneman]

The 2:00 advisory still shows at 85 and says moving North but now at 10 degrees or slightly east of north.

[LandoWill]

well, i will leave this one for the morning. won't wishcast, but i don't mind it staying the way it is now, basically landfall in animal sanctuary... if it indeed goes more east. oh boy

[Sciencerocks]

[Teban54]

Eye clearing out?

Edit: Nvm, looks like just old convection dying and being replaced with hot towers around the eyewall

[johngaltfla]

At 4:34Z on Tuesday, observation 21 had a note of interest:

RADAR FIX EYE 22.25N 84.84W LIMITED RADAR PRESENTATION DIAM 16NM OPEN SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST

Which means the 1200Z forecast point is already off. If it continue on this trend, the cone shifts east by the 1100 ET advisory just so slightly. But that makes a lot of difference from Sarasota up to Spring Hill.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1696415019930661247

[Hurrilurker]

Hasn’t been off Cuba for long but it doesn’t look so great right now. Maybe won’t have enough time to get pressure dropping and winds cranking. Still, there’s a few very cold tops popping around here and there.

[Extratropical94]

We have Hurricane Idalia, folks

AL, 10, 2023082906, , BEST, 0, 226N, 850W, 65, 981, HU

[cycloneye]

[REDHurricane]

Hasn’t been off Cuba for long but it doesn’t look so great right now. Maybe won’t have enough time to get pressure dropping and winds cranking. Still, there’s a few very cold tops popping around here and there.

Hmm on the SWIR I see some rotating hot towers trying to wrap themselves all the way around the center -- the period of rapid intensification definitely appears to be starting, the only question is how rapid?

Even though Idalia may not look pretty at the moment, I have a feeling we won't be saying the same thing when it's about to make landfall...

[Hurrilurker]

Cold cloud canopy taking over again after some messiness. Should see an eye soon?

[Sanibel]

Appears to be on the move and intensifying...

First little gentle breaths of a sultry laminar wind flow outside...

You wouldn't even notice unless you knew hurricanes...

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Idalia Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023

...IDALIA NOW A HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MAJOR
HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL ON WEDNESDAY...

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1696447831689642102

[Kingarabian]

Partial MW pass but you can see the eyewall has formed.

[GCANE]

Looks like a shockwave occurred on the west & north flank.
More than 180 degree radial coverage.

Eye looks closed now on Cuban radar.

[ObsessedMiami]

COC is visible on Key West radar