ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Chemmers]

-80 to -90c cloud top looks like round the core, think RI has defo started. Will be interesting to see what recon finds

[aspen]

I just woke up, what did I miss?

Idalia finally developed an eyewall and recon is on its way. RI should start today.

[Iceresistance]

I just woke up, what did I miss?

Idalia finally developed an eyewall and recon is on its way. RI should start today.

Recon is in the storm right now

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Idalia about to move through some of the hottest waters I've ever seen a TC move over. Nearly 90F in some spots.

[Iceresistance]

Idalia about to move through some of the hottest waters I've ever seen a TC move over. Nearly 90F in some spots.

All we can do is hope and pray that she does not take advantage of these kinds of waters. We have yet to see a tropical cyclone react to >87°F Waters in the Atlantic, but I can imagine there is almost unlimited fuel.

[Chemmers]

Idalia about to move through some of the hottest waters I've ever seen a TC move over. Nearly 90F in some spots.

unfortunate looks like in the next few hours it will go thought 31 to 32c in some places all the way to landfall, i just hope everyone has evacuated

[Hypercane_Kyle]

For the first time in its existence, Idalia looks like a truly healthy tropical cyclone. The bursting/collapsing thunderstorm pattern we saw in the Caribbean has been replaced by the classic "shrimp" look, indicative of a forming inner core. Also note the thunderstorms firing to the north of Idalia off the coast of Ft. Myers. That's indicative of a very unstable environment ahead.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Shear is low, waters are hot, and as this lifts a little more North looks like the atmosphere is setting up to allow some really good ventilation. I'm hopeful there is some fly in the ointment I'm missing (shear building back in etc) but really worried about what this storm is going to do today.

[TallyTracker]

For the first time in its existence, Idalia looks like a truly healthy tropical cyclone. The bursting/collapsing thunderstorm pattern we saw in the Caribbean has been replaced by the classic "shrimp" look, indicative of a forming inner core. Also note the thunderstorms firing to the north of Idalia off the coast of Ft. Myers. That's indicative of a very unstable environment ahead.

https://i.imgur.com/3zyn9lL.jpg

We have started getting afternoon thunderstorms and maritime morning thunderstorms in the Tallahassee/Big Bend area since yesterday. The atmosphere is heavy with humidity and instability.

[SecondBreakfast]

:double:

https://i.postimg.cc/N018mWHC/IMG-7526.jpg

They keep it as a storm..

https://i.postimg.cc/nrvMPJnN/IMG-7527.png

Should I start aiming my fans at the blocking high up here in the northeast?

[weeniepatrol]

[NDG]

Extrap pressure of 974mb, haven't sampled the strongest side yet.

URNT15 KWBC 291127
NOAA3 1010A IDALIA HDOB 13 20230829
111800 2419N 08453W 6952 03116 9959 +109 +123 094039 042 043 003 01
111830 2417N 08452W 6954 03108 9952 +111 +126 101038 040 043 003 01
111900 2415N 08452W 6945 03114 9944 +113 +128 097033 036 045 002 01
111930 2413N 08452W 6952 03108 9945 +112 +128 094034 037 044 005 01
112000 2411N 08452W 6951 03104 9936 +115 +127 085034 036 045 004 01
112030 2409N 08452W 6955 03090 9919 +124 +123 077038 041 046 006 00
112100 2407N 08452W 6949 03094 9909 +126 +124 079037 037 048 007 00
112130 2405N 08451W 6955 03083 9915 +117 +127 073035 036 053 009 01
112200 2403N 08450W 6944 03087 9901 +122 +138 087031 033 055 012 01
112230 2401N 08450W 6970 03044 9881 +128 +145 076028 033 059 016 01
112300 2359N 08449W 6955 03055 9869 +131 +144 073031 037 061 017 01
112330 2357N 08449W 6951 03053 9854 +135 +137 092044 045 059 011 01
112400 2355N 08448W 6955 03038 9828 +149 +131 090044 046 061 008 00
112430 2353N 08447W 6945 03036 9800 +160 +139 094039 042 063 003 03
112500 2351N 08448W 6951 03021 9781 +167 +149 085030 037 060 004 00
112530 2349N 08448W 6957 03005 9761 +175 +156 056017 022 059 003 00
112600 2347N 08446W 6957 02997 9748 +177 +157 075012 016 033 000 03
112630 2345N 08445W 6950 02997 9739 +176 +162 081010 011 028 001 03
112700 2343N 08444W 6955 02986 9739 +173 +160 004003 008 024 000 00
112730 2341N 08444W 6959 02980 9748 +166 +157 277013 020 025 000 00

[NDG]

https://i.imgur.com/e4vaHkm.png

You can tell they had to readjust their flight path, center is further east than what the NHC had it 5 AM.

[chris_fit]

https://i.imgur.com/e4vaHkm.png

You can tell they had to readjust their flight path, center is further east than what the NHC had it 5 AM.

Per yesterdays official track - She wasn't supposed to cross 85 until later this afternoon. She's at 84.7 already - hopefully just a wobble and it'll smooth out. Decently E of most guidance.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Based on that pass, I wouldn't be surprised if Idalia is close to 75 knots right now in the strongest quadrant.

[chaser1]

Honest to God, just woke up and refreshed my IR pic and saw this:

[socplay02]

https://i.imgur.com/e4vaHkm.png

You can tell they had to readjust their flight path, center is further east than what the NHC had it 5 AM.

Per yesterdays official track - She wasn't supposed to cross 85 until later this afternoon. She's at 84.7 already - hopefully just a wobble and it'll smooth out. Decently E of most guidance.


https://i.imgur.com/GKlHzDP.png

How many miles different is 85 degrees vs 84.7 degrees at that latitude?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

You can tell they had to readjust their flight path, center is further east than what the NHC had it 5 AM.

Per yesterdays official track - She wasn't supposed to cross 85 until later this afternoon. She's at 84.7 already - hopefully just a wobble and it'll smooth out. Decently E of most guidance.


https://i.imgur.com/GKlHzDP.png

How many miles different is 85 degrees vs 84.7 degrees at that latitude?

Not much, about 15 miles.

[caneman]

https://i.imgur.com/e4vaHkm.png

You can tell they had to readjust their flight path, center is further east than what the NHC had it 5 AM.

Per yesterdays official track - She wasn't supposed to cross 85 until later this afternoon. She's at 84.7 already - hopefully just a wobble and it'll smooth out. Decently E of most guidance.


https://i.imgur.com/GKlHzDP.png

The Euro ensembles overnight predicted a stronger storm would come jn on the right side of the cone. If this keep up, I suspect Pinellas and St. Pete may come back in the cone at 11. Regardless of that, my fellow peeps here on the beaches of Pinellas should prepare for a potential close pass.

[aspen]

N quadrant still looks rather weak. She still has a ways to go.