ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

You can tell they had to readjust their flight path, center is further east than what the NHC had it 5 AM.

Per yesterdays official track - She wasn't supposed to cross 85 until later this afternoon. She's at 84.7 already - hopefully just a wobble and it'll smooth out. Decently E of most guidance.


https://i.imgur.com/GKlHzDP.png

How many miles different is 85 degrees vs 84.7 degrees at that latitude?

Is only 20 miles or so.

[caneman]

Per yesterdays official track - She wasn't supposed to cross 85 until later this afternoon. She's at 84.7 already - hopefully just a wobble and it'll smooth out. Decently E of most guidance.


https://i.imgur.com/GKlHzDP.png

How many miles different is 85 degrees vs 84.7 degrees at that latitude?

Not much, about 15 miles.

Closer to 20 but down wind could put Pinellas county much closer to the worst weather if that type motion continues.

[fllawyer]

Per yesterdays official track - She wasn't supposed to cross 85 until later this afternoon. She's at 84.7 already - hopefully just a wobble and it'll smooth out. Decently E of most guidance.

https://i.imgur.com/GKlHzDP.png

How many miles different is 85 degrees vs 84.7 degrees at that latitude?

Not much, about 15 miles.

As long as it keeps moving N it shouldn’t be too much of a factor for mid-coast. If it makes NNE turn quicker than forecast, then those 15 miles can make a big difference.

[Full8s]

You can tell they had to readjust their flight path, center is further east than what the NHC had it 5 AM.

Per yesterdays official track - She wasn't supposed to cross 85 until later this afternoon. She's at 84.7 already - hopefully just a wobble and it'll smooth out. Decently E of most guidance.


https://i.imgur.com/GKlHzDP.png

How many miles different is 85 degrees vs 84.7 degrees at that latitude?

I could be totally wrong, but I think somewhere in the 20 mile range. I THINK.

[NDG]

N quadrant still looks rather weak. She still has a ways to go.

Indeed, but pressure drop is a good sign that is about to take off.

[chris_fit]

You can tell they had to readjust their flight path, center is further east than what the NHC had it 5 AM.

Per yesterdays official track - She wasn't supposed to cross 85 until later this afternoon. She's at 84.7 already - hopefully just a wobble and it'll smooth out. Decently E of most guidance.


https://i.imgur.com/GKlHzDP.png

How many miles different is 85 degrees vs 84.7 degrees at that latitude?

Yesterday 11am Track said 24H forecast point (valid 29/1200Z) is 23.9N 85.1W

About 25 miles off to the east.

Not nit picking... I just hope this is not a trend setter for the Bay area.

[caneman]

How many miles different is 85 degrees vs 84.7 degrees at that latitude?

Not much, about 15 miles.

As long as it keeps moving N it shouldn’t be too much of a factor for mid-coast. If it makes NNE turn quicker than forecast, then those 15 miles can make a big difference.

15 miles downwind could be 30 to 45 miles closer to the Tampa Bay area

[Clearcloudz]

Eric Burris (Remember his name because he has been calling this since yesterday.)

 https://twitter.com/EricBurrisWESH/status/1696480931358310435

[caneman]

Per yesterdays official track - She wasn't supposed to cross 85 until later this afternoon. She's at 84.7 already - hopefully just a wobble and it'll smooth out. Decently E of most guidance.


https://i.imgur.com/GKlHzDP.png

How many miles different is 85 degrees vs 84.7 degrees at that latitude?

Yesterday 11am Track said 24H forecast point (valid 29/1200Z) is 23.9N 85.1W

About 25 miles off to the east.

Not nit picking... I just hope this is not a trend setter for the Bay area.

https://i.imgur.com/oQ4LQK0.png

It could be. Going from 80 miles off Clearwater Beach to say just 40 miles is a big deal

[ColdMiser123]

Drop supports 977 mb, spot on with the 6z HWRF forecast for 8 am eastern.

[aspen]

66 kt surface winds found in a drop in the S eyewall. Eye drop of 979/20 supports 976-977 mbar.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Well there's the eye

[Dean4Storms]

You have to think that some up-welling was beginning to occur down there over the Western Carib. Sea and she's now getting into the loop current high octane fuel. Bet we see some rapid deepening today.

[cycloneye]

Up to 80 mph.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
700 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND IDALIA STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 84.8W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 005 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES

[NDG]

It will have to wobble NNW to get back to track.
It will be interesting what 12z soundings show this morning to see if the narrow ridge just east of FL is holding on strong as forecasted.

[jlauderdal]

How many miles different is 85 degrees vs 84.7 degrees at that latitude?

Not much, about 15 miles.

As long as it keeps moving N it shouldn’t be too much of a factor for mid-coast. If it makes NNE turn quicker than forecast, then those 15 miles can make a big difference.

its off track to the east, looks like more than a wobble and this is what we have been talking about for days due to the angle of approach, big track changes are possible with just a degree off track early on, its like compounding interest, it grows over time, give it a few more hours to see if it corrects

[kevin]

The eyewall is now also clearly visible on IR with an eye that will clear out sooner than later. Very curious to see if it's already rapidly deepening, next pass will be interesting.

[kevin]

Also note that the NOAA extrapolated pressure has a slight bias of ~3 mb (extrapolated pressure was 973.9 mb while the dropsonde indicated 977 mb).

[NDG]

No way Idalia is moving straight due north this morning. I wouldn't rule out landfall closer to Cedar Key than shown by the models.

[Clearcloudz]

No way Idalia is moving straight due north this morning. I wouldn't rule out landfall closer to Cedar Key than shown by the models.

https://i.imgur.com/LBxCqTR.gif

I think Pinellas county and Sarasota are in play as well until it starts moving west again.