ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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GCANE
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1861 Postby GCANE » Tue Aug 29, 2023 7:04 am

Miss Piggy Vortex Message

Eye Character: Spiral Band
Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1862 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 29, 2023 7:05 am

kevin wrote:Also note that the NOAA extrapolated pressure has a slight bias of ~3 mb (extrapolated pressure was 973.9 mb while the dropsonde indicated 977 mb).


Yeah, NOAA recons extrap pressure readings from h70 are always 2-4mb lower than actual.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1863 Postby caneman » Tue Aug 29, 2023 7:07 am

NDG wrote:No way Idalia is moving straight due north this morning. I wouldn't rule out landfall closer to Cedar Key than shown by the models.

https://i.imgur.com/LBxCqTR.gif


Agree. Euro ensembles picked up on this overnight. As did that ibm model mentioned on page #42 in the models thread. A stronger storm is gonna pull right
Last edited by caneman on Tue Aug 29, 2023 7:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1864 Postby GCANE » Tue Aug 29, 2023 7:08 am

Recon fix is 14 miles east of forecast track
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1865 Postby caneman » Tue Aug 29, 2023 7:09 am

Clearcloudz wrote:Eric Burris (Remember his name because he has been calling this since yesterday.)

https://twitter.com/EricBurrisWESH/status/1696480931358310435


He has been spot on so far.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1866 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Aug 29, 2023 7:15 am

Hurricane force winds only extend 15 miles from the center. I imagine those pressure drops will eventually expand the wind field.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1867 Postby fllawyer » Tue Aug 29, 2023 7:15 am

Big tell will be when the NNE/NE turn begins. NHC says 005 heading at 8am ET, let’s see what the 11am says. Looking at radar, seems the general GOM showers are heading N to even just W of N.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1868 Postby ChrisH-UK » Tue Aug 29, 2023 7:15 am

Bene looking at the eye from radar in Key West and it looks like it's eye wall is reforming in to a smaller size.

Image
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1869 Postby Poonwalker » Tue Aug 29, 2023 7:18 am

I see a more meaningful eastward drift the last couple hours. All night it chugged north just inside the 85W line.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1870 Postby Clearcloudz » Tue Aug 29, 2023 7:20 am

Image

If this continues east of the cone all the way to land fall then entire Tampa Bay region could be in for a surprise.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1871 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Aug 29, 2023 7:23 am

Poonwalker wrote:I see a more meaningful eastward drift the last couple hours. All night it chugged north just inside the 85W line.

This is something we will need to watch for. That mesovort traveling up the east side of the eyewall may be yanking it a bit east. With this, at least currently, being somewhat lopsided to the east, we could see this phenomenon continue in the short term. Everyone in the hurricane warning should stay on guard for reasons like this.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1872 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Tue Aug 29, 2023 7:23 am

Recon is already reporting 65kt flt lvl winds and they are a ways from the center heading in that direction
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1873 Postby Weatherboy1 » Tue Aug 29, 2023 7:24 am

jlauderdal wrote:
fllawyer wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
Not much, about 15 miles.


As long as it keeps moving N it shouldn’t be too much of a factor for mid-coast. If it makes NNE turn quicker than forecast, then those 15 miles can make a big difference.


its off track to the east, looks lik emore than a wobble and this is what we have been talking about for days doe to the angle of approach, big track changes are possible with just a degree off track early on, its like compounding interest, it grows over time, give it a few more hours to see if it corrects


I hadn’t thought to put it that way, but it’s a great analogy! Due to the angle of the coastline and the movement of Idalia, small wobbles now can definitely have bigger impacts down the road
Last edited by Weatherboy1 on Tue Aug 29, 2023 7:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1874 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 29, 2023 7:24 am

saved radar loop

Image
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1875 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 29, 2023 7:26 am

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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1876 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Tue Aug 29, 2023 7:26 am

tolakram wrote:saved radar loop

https://i.imgur.com/wWcThiW.gif

Looks like Key West has some nasty incoming bands
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1877 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Tue Aug 29, 2023 7:27 am

Using radar loops it looks pretty much due North to me. Maybe a slight east jog but I'm not convinced it wasn't just a wobble yet. It's gonna wobble around a bit while it's getting its core together. A long ways to go but I don't see this becoming significantly east of the NHCs track.

Also, never use satellite to determine track when you have radar available. It can be very misleading. And look at overall motion over an extended period not every wobble.

I remember in 2020 NHC had hurricane Isaias coming in around the SC/NC border. All you saw on twitter was these wobble watchers proclaiming it was going to go way east potentially to Jacksonville NC. Well, that didn't happen. This is obviously a completely different situation just saying the NHC is the best in the game always go with them first.

This is just my opinion though.
Last edited by HurricaneEnzo on Tue Aug 29, 2023 7:38 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1878 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 29, 2023 7:30 am

There's the hurricane winds and pressure continues to drop.

122330 2348N 08431W 6950 03062 9883 +122 +138 219063 065 060 005 01
122400 2349N 08433W 6954 03054 9877 +121 +138 218062 064 062 004 01
122430 2350N 08435W 6954 03036 9851 +129 +136 221058 060 066 003 01
122500 2352N 08436W 6958 03018 9822 +142 +139 222060 062 065 002 00
122530 2353N 08438W 6950 03015 9769 +171 +149 229052 058 065 002 00
122600 2354N 08440W 6958 02994 9751 +174 +160 231040 046 065 002 00
122630 2356N 08441W 6945 02998 9744 +171 +163 224031 038 059 002 00
122700 2357N 08443W 6948 02990 9722 +187 +155 212021 025 043 001 00
122730 2359N 08445W 6957 02977 9725 +182 +156 254004 016 029 001 00
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1879 Postby skillz305 » Tue Aug 29, 2023 7:30 am

Please don’t wobble or track NE sooner than predicted …
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1880 Postby ChrisH-UK » Tue Aug 29, 2023 7:32 am

First light over Idalia. Looks like it is exerting its control all over the gulf now pulling in air, you can see band of clouds been sucked in.

Image
Last edited by ChrisH-UK on Tue Aug 29, 2023 7:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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