ATL: IDALIA - Models

[tolakram]

6Z UKMET for those curious. Now right in the middle of most model guidance.

[tolakram]

Latest model landfall predictions. HAFS-B is leftmost. It concerns me all new hurricane models are still using the GFS, but if it ends up coming in west the GFS will show merit here.

[tolakram]

[TallyTracker]

GFS is still showing Alligator Point for landfall and Euro appears to be NW of Keaton Beach on the same latitude but opposite side of Apalachee Bay. The official is still near Steinhatchee it appears. The GFS will trash Tallahassee with hurricane force winds while the Euro would result in TS winds only most likely.

Another item to note, an Alligator Point landfall will likely result in one of the highest storm surges possible with this storm at St. Marks. Very interested to watch that surge gauge as the storm progresses.

[Blown Away]

GFS is still showing Alligator Point for landfall and Euro appears to be NW of Keaton Beach on the same latitude but opposite side of Apalachee Bay. The official is still near Steinhatchee it appears. The GFS will trash Tallahassee with hurricane force winds while the Euro would result in TS winds only most likely.

Another item to note, an Alligator Point landfall will likely result in one of the highest storm surges possible with this storm at St. Marks. Very interested to watch that surge gauge as the storm progresses.

Can you provide a link to monitor the surge gauges?

[sweetpea]

GFS is still showing Alligator Point for landfall and Euro appears to be NW of Keaton Beach on the same latitude but opposite side of Apalachee Bay. The official is still near Steinhatchee it appears. The GFS will trash Tallahassee with hurricane force winds while the Euro would result in TS winds only most likely.

Another item to note, an Alligator Point landfall will likely result in one of the highest storm surges possible with this storm at St. Marks. Very interested to watch that surge gauge as the storm progresses.

Not liking these shifts West that are happening since yesterday. Been quietly watching, most of them would mean we are in for one heck of a ride down here in Sopchoppy. We are prepared, hubby is up in Tally today securing jobsites. Stay safe!

[Steve]

GFS is still showing Alligator Point for landfall and Euro appears to be NW of Keaton Beach on the same latitude but opposite side of Apalachee Bay. The official is still near Steinhatchee it appears. The GFS will trash Tallahassee with hurricane force winds while the Euro would result in TS winds only most likely.

Another item to note, an Alligator Point landfall will likely result in one of the highest storm surges possible with this storm at St. Marks. Very interested to watch that surge gauge as the storm progresses.

Yeah, that will be interesting since it's always been lore that Apalachee Bay was a sitting duck for surge and as per Mark's post with the major models all targeting the bay. Luckily (and relatively) almost no one lives in that part of the coast or along the bay. I've been to Alligator Point a few times, and it was just a couple of streets and not many houses there. That doesn't mean that millions on the Peninsula and in NE FL won't have issues. But for the immediate coastal counties on Apalachee Bay where we'd see the greatest hurricane impacts, those populations are (roughly):

Franklin - 12,572
Wakulla - 34,690
Jefferson - 14,555
Taylor - 21,815
Dixie - 17,102

Edit to say hang in there sweetpea. I've been to Sopchoppy as well.

[Gums]

Salute!

Not liking westward movement at all. My Cedar Key/Steinhatchee prediction looks doubtful now. OTOH, the approaching front up north could help steer the storm eastward.

For loop-de-loops, go back to Betsy in 1965 and Elena in 1985. Then Ivan.....seems like 20 year cycle, doesn't it?

Gums sends...

[underthwx]

https://i.imgur.com/akz9PAF.png

Are these models similar to Ivan? I saw the NHC track, so I guess I'm wondering if the storm could take a similar path, as Ivan did? Or will Idalia head out to sea....

[Steve]

12z Mesoscale models are run.

FV3 Hi-Res shows a couple of wobbles on the way north until it curves it into Taylor County. 964-965mb landfall tomorrow morning.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2912&fh=27

FV3 likes the path through SE GA and eastern South Carolina where it dumps between 4-10" on the way in a narrow band.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2912&fh=50

HRRR 12z likes a hit around St George/Tate's Hell State Forest) so a little to the left of the FV3 with a higher pressure (though it's already below what it's showing for landfall)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2912&fh=27

HRRR path is similar to FV3 but is displaced a little farther inland.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2912&fh=48


NAM 3km - NAM starts tanking it close to the coast and does an RI or close to it dropping to 930's and finally dropping to 928mb as it hooks a hair NE . Possible? Of course, but it's not likely getting that deep. Landfall is around Alligator Point.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2912&fh=24

Precip totals are similar but NAM looks to bully Tallahassee.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2912&fh=51

[TallyTracker]

GFS is still showing Alligator Point for landfall and Euro appears to be NW of Keaton Beach on the same latitude but opposite side of Apalachee Bay. The official is still near Steinhatchee it appears. The GFS will trash Tallahassee with hurricane force winds while the Euro would result in TS winds only most likely.

Another item to note, an Alligator Point landfall will likely result in one of the highest storm surges possible with this storm at St. Marks. Very interested to watch that surge gauge as the storm progresses.

Can you provide a link to monitor the surge gauges?

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?gage=mrkf1&wfo=tae

That’s the St. Marks River Gauge at the confluence of the St. Marks and Wakulla Rivers. You can see the Gulf from that spot so it should be a good one to monitor the surge event.

[tolakram]

https://i.imgur.com/akz9PAF.png

Are these models similar to Ivan? I saw the NHC track, so I guess I'm wondering if the storm could take a similar path, as Ivan did? Or will Idalia head out to sea....

It's always possible but the GFS has showed a loop for multiple storms before and usually it's a big nothing.

[Michele B]

The giant loop shown in the GFS reminds me of Ivan in 2004. Its remnants also looped around and tracked over southern Florida before redeveloping in the Gulf and striking Louisiana/Texas as a weak tropical storm

OMG!! You're right! Ivan did that too!

I didn't realize that, as we were dealing with the aftermath of Charley and not paying attention to subsequent storms.

[Michele B]

The giant loop shown in the GFS reminds me of Ivan in 2004. Its remnants also looped around and tracked over southern Florida before redeveloping in the Gulf and striking Louisiana/Texas as a weak tropical storm

Ivan was pretty wild
https://i.ibb.co/hLkQtFF/Ivan-2004-track.png

Another crazy "I" guy!!!

[tolakram]

12Z GFS

[tolakram]

CMC

[pcolaman]

CMC

https://i.imgur.com/NEC8zx2.png

That looks west to me about 50 milesĺ

[tolakram]

CMC

https://i.imgur.com/NEC8zx2.png

That looks west to me about 50 milesĺ

It's the Canadian. I've been flat out ignoring it up till now, figured I'd post this run just to see how close it is a day out.

[Jonny]

CMC

https://i.imgur.com/NEC8zx2.png

Michael’s sister

[Blown Away]

12z GFS Landfall.