ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Coolcruiseman]

Straight up rocket fuel until landfall

https://i.imgur.com/GVObJU7.png

And that rocket fuel in the Atlantic is also concerning if it does indeed loop back.

[ElectricStorm]

It kind of looks like there’s a bit of a dry tongue in Idalia’s CDO. Or maybe it’s just an illusion from the rotating hot tower.

I noticed that too, we'll see if it can close off the eyewall and mix it out

[jdjaguar]

Son lives in Indian Shores where the elevation is 9.2.
NHC is projecting 4-7ft surge in that area but it may coincide with a "king tide".

Question is does the NHC take that into account? If not, should he expect higher than 7ft?

[PavelGaborik10]

It kind of looks like there’s a bit of a dry tongue in Idalia’s CDO. Or maybe it’s just an illusion from the rotating hot tower.

I noticed that too, we'll see if it can close off the eyewall and mix it out

Recon confirms a closed eyewall, this is likely the eye attempting to clear out.

[caneman]

Son lives in Indian Shores where the elevation is 9.2.
NHC is projecting 4-7ft surge in that area but it may coincide with a "king tide".

Question is does the NHC take that into account? If not, should he expect higher than 7ft?

I live very near there off a finger on the intercoastal. Saw one dock washed over already and just 1 ft. From the top of the seawall. That is just mostly from King High tide too.

[Highteeld]

Looks like dry air on radar too. notable reflectivity gap where that "dry air" is on satellite

[underthwx]

Looks like dry air on radar too. notable reflectivity gap where that "dry air" is on satellite

Do you mean on the Northwest side of Idalia? Looking at it on water vapor imagery, it looks like dryer air?

[tolakram]

Looks like organization to me. This is a pretty classic look.

[AJC3]

TFW you see a NHC Specialist post this...

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1696551760993616257

[HurricaneEnzo]

They may be talking about the partial dark ring on the Northern quadrant. I believe that is just shadow from taller nearby cloudtops however.

Looks like organization to me. This is a pretty classic look.

https://i.imgur.com/da4rqjc.png

[Jr0d]

We are experiencing a heavy rain band in Key West . Sand Key has had sustained winds up to 36kts, gusts to 53kts, so by definition tropical storm conditions.

[johngaltfla]

Dangerous Dvorak developing...

Heavy small drop rain here...

Wind picking up but light...

Fist...

Good to see you Sanibel. Hopefully our part of the state gets the lighter stuff and we get to sit this one out. We need the rain, not the surge or wind.

[xironman]

Shear ... Nope
Dry Air ... Nope
Cooler Water Temps .. Nope

BTW: The feeder band going over Cuba is epic

[johngaltfla]

Looks like organization to me. This is a pretty classic look.

https://i.imgur.com/da4rqjc.png

Yup. Big comma with tightening inner circle. It should have time to expand at least once with a larger windfield before landfall unfortunately. The GOM never fails to disappoint.

[Dean4Storms]

Son lives in Indian Shores where the elevation is 9.2.
NHC is projecting 4-7ft surge in that area but it may coincide with a "king tide".

Question is does the NHC take that into account? If not, should he expect higher than 7ft?

Always error on the side of worse case scenario. Remember, there will be wave action from the wind on top of that 7 ft surge!!

[Category5Kaiju]

Ngl, Idalia looks quite similar to Michael satellite-presentation-wise.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/HurricaneManWx/status/1696559036332757135

[johngaltfla]

Son lives in Indian Shores where the elevation is 9.2.
NHC is projecting 4-7ft surge in that area but it may coincide with a "king tide".

Question is does the NHC take that into account? If not, should he expect higher than 7ft?

Always error on the side of worse case scenario. Remember, there will be wave action from the wind on top of that 7 ft surge!!

Per a radio report I heard on the way home, Gulfport is already experiencing minor tidal flooding (normal during the seasonal full time) on some of the low lying streets. Add 2-3 foot higher tides on top of surge plus waves and thus the evacuation orders.

[cheezyWXguy]

Very common to see some minor dry air intrusions during initial attempts at clearing the eye. Internal structure looks solid on radar and new hot towers keep firing. I don’t see anything at this point to slow Idalia down

[ScottNAtlanta]

Son lives in Indian Shores where the elevation is 9.2.
NHC is projecting 4-7ft surge in that area but it may coincide with a "king tide".

Question is does the NHC take that into account? If not, should he expect higher than 7ft?

The way it works is when they say 9ft...that is 9ft ABOVE what would normally be dry. If a king tide ads 2 feet then that 9ft becomes 11 feet.