ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

Tampa saved loop. Remember at this distance the radar is looking near the top of the eye.

[tolakram]

[pcolaman]

https://i.imgur.com/rRyHiPK.png

Alittle west .

[Iceresistance]

Everything radar indicated so far
Nothing observed

https://twitter.com/NWStornado/status/1696585965240979518

Based on the FL511 cameras, visibility from those storms is terrible, so it is going to be hard to have confirmation of a tornado from these lines of storms.

[GCANE]

Trof is digging in fast into the NW GOM
At the TX/LA Border.
Some convection ahead of it along the CAPE gradient south of MS Delta

[LAwxrgal]

Fun Fact: Idalia is the name that replaced Irma on the hurricane name list. If this storm does what it is forecast to do, it might well be retired too.

[sarcean]

 https://twitter.com/NWSTallahassee/status/1696544257451216896

[Steve]

Just 4 days ago we were thinking like a cat1 into swfl instead

No reliable model showed that, NHC never had a track into SW Florida.

That's true. But he said "we." And tons of posters here in and around the area then up in Central and Western Florida and Tampa Bay area were the most active for obvious reasons. We read a lot about Charley and Ian among lots of other storms. Still got the dry slot between the main outer feeder band and the core. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[Craters]

Son lives in Indian Shores where the elevation is 9.2.
NHC is projecting 4-7ft surge in that area but it may coincide with a "king tide".

Question is does the NHC take that into account? If not, should he expect higher than 7ft?

The way it works is when they say 9ft...that is 9ft ABOVE what would normally be dry. If a king tide ads 2 feet then that 9ft becomes 11 feet.

...and the wind-lashed waves on top of that...

[emeraldislenc]

Someone also said a sloppy mess but things changed.

[OverlandHurricane]

Fun Fact: Idalia is the name that replaced Irma on the hurricane name list. If this storm does what it is forecast to do, it might well be retired too.

And if this storm holds to form, this would be the third straight I name sent packing from this list (Irene was retired from this slot in 2011).

[psyclone]

Just enjoyed my first rainband in a pavilion at the top of tampa bay in Oldsmar. It was great. Water in the bay is high and coming up fast. Good luck to everyone up north
In the path of this beast

[Steve]

Someone also said a sloppy mess but things changed.

Yep. We were looking at a ceiling of like a strong TS or Cat 1 this past weekend. Then a couple intensity models creeped into Cat 2 territory. But like you said, things changed. And now we're on the doorstep of quite possibly a 3. Not sure what the ultimate pressure will be, but with less than a day to go, seems like somewhere in the 950's or 960's would be the best guess though there's probably more room for pressures lower than higher outside that range.

[Craters]

Its the area in yellow
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

What effect does a PV streamer have on a cyclone such as this one?...

Its vorticity at the top of the troposphere.
Interacts with the TC's vort column causing the upper portion to snake around.
Also causes a down-draft.
I believe a good part of it comes from the stratosphere so its next to impossible to make it out on any satellite imagery.

I'm wondering if that angular extension of the CDO that recently appeared, "pointing" toward the SW, is caused by the PV streamer. It's in the right location relative to the PV map...

[Craters]

Is every storm a pinhole eye now? I think it's going annular as well. Let the eye clear out, it's not mature yet.

Thank you for posting that, Mark. There were posts about pinhole eyes when Idalia was still a tropical storm!

[tropicwatch]

From a technical standpoint, from the HH not being able to get to the center due to proximity to Cuba and technical issues not getting off the ground. To Nesdis gifs not updating, this has been a frustrating storm. Frankly, I think Nesdis has been a nightmare since taking over the graphic duties.

[beachnut]

Fairly vigorous band rotating through Naples-Ft. Myers now.

[Iceresistance]

Shear has literally collapsed over the storm.


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgRLT.gif

[MetroMike]

So perhaps after dark...Yikes

[Zonacane]

Intense burst wrapping through the eyewall.