2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Blown Away]

18z GFS…

[Iceresistance]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/76jW2vSj/gfs-mslp-pcpn-seus-fh24-216.gif [/url]
18z GFS…

It's too small, can you please resize it larger?

[SconnieCane]

Is that Idalia coming back for FL round 2?

[Ianswfl]

Is that Idalia coming back for FL round 2?

Yep! A weak TS. Crosses over and hits the same location again!

[IcyTundra]

12Z EPS really likes this wave coming off of Africa this weekend. Comes off at a relatively low latitude.

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS develops a TS in the subtropics in 5-6 days. We'll see if other models start latching on.

EDIT: Looks like CMC has it as a TD\

EDIT2: Looks like it might be 92L

[CFLHurricane]

The 00z EPS ensembles are depicting heightened activity around the Bahamas as we look towards the peak of peak, so no rest for the weary this season.

[chris_fit]

12Z EPS still likes an MDR Runner.

[SFLcane]

12Z EPS still likes an MDR Runner.

https://i.imgur.com/RgejjCo.png

Yea for sure!

[Ianswfl]

12Z EPS still likes an MDR Runner.

https://i.imgur.com/RgejjCo.png

Yea for sure!

https://i.postimg.cc/TwLTtKbt/jjjj.png

If certain members of that run panned out that storm would be far more destructive for FL assuming there is a high in place.

[USTropics]

the 12z ECMWF developed this on its operational run:

[LAF92]

the 12z ECMWF developed this on its operational run:
https://i.imgur.com/4uWeA2o.png

The 12z CMC does too a little slower but similar storm from a MB standpoint

[mantis83]

huge weakness in atlantic will easily scoop this up and out.....

[USTropics]

huge weakness in atlantic will easily scoop this up and out.....

There are quite a few ensemble members that show building high pressure behind this system with a weakening trough over the western North Atlantic, some members have a distinct bend back to the west showing this:


With the usual caveats this is a long range forecast (240 hours), but the EPS doesnt show a strong signal for a trough:

[Cpv17]

huge weakness in atlantic will easily scoop this up and out.....

There are quite a few ensemble members that show building high pressure behind this system with a weakening trough over the western North Atlantic, some members have a distinct bend back to the west showing this:
https://i.imgur.com/8oHdN2Z.png

With the usual caveats this is a long range forecast (240 hours), but the EPS doesnt show a strong signal for a trough:
https://i.imgur.com/TpWj1d3.png

Yep. I was just about to comment something similar.

[jlauderdal]

12Z EPS still likes an MDR Runner.

https://i.imgur.com/RgejjCo.png

Yea for sure!

https://i.postimg.cc/TwLTtKbt/jjjj.png

If certain members of that run panned out that storm would be far more destructive for FL assuming there is a high in place.

Hopefully it stays away, no more florida hurricanes this season.

[Ianswfl]

Yea for sure!

https://i.postimg.cc/TwLTtKbt/jjjj.png

If certain members of that run panned out that storm would be far more destructive for FL assuming there is a high in place.

Hopefully it stays away, no more florida hurricanes this season.

Some of those members have an Irma Vibe. Also, same time of year too!

[cane5]

This will be the second year in a row all we heard was Tampa Tampa Tampa and the models were off by over 100 miles. The weather channel just needs to slow down the hype until the storm is 24 hours before landfall.

Does not mean we don’t need a cone of concern because it generally is mildly accurate 3 days out but it’s almost getting silly and a waste of millions to relocate people 3 days in advance.

[jlauderdal]

This will be the second year in a row all we heard was Tampa Tampa Tampa and the models were off by over 100 miles. The weather channel just needs to slow down the hype until the storm is 24 hours before landfall.

Does not mean we don’t need a cone of concern because it generally is mildly accurate 3 days out but it’s almost getting silly and a waste of millions to relocate people 3 days in advance.

You are going to wait until 24hrs to evac people? Too many people from non evac zones leave.

[IcyTundra]

This will be the second year in a row all we heard was Tampa Tampa Tampa and the models were off by over 100 miles. The weather channel just needs to slow down the hype until the storm is 24 hours before landfall.

Does not mean we don’t need a cone of concern because it generally is mildly accurate 3 days out but it’s almost getting silly and a waste of millions to relocate people 3 days in advance.

Models never showed a Tampa landfall for Idalia. There was some concern that the track could shift further south but that never panned out.