ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[InfernoFlameCat]

The eyewall is rapidly improving on radar and satellite. She is really picking up the pace now.

[Hurricaneman]

This may not be done with Florida on tomorrow’s landfall but it seems to move SE at the end of the 7 day official forecast and the GFS and it’s ensembles and a lot of Euro ensembles have a loop back to Florida. Could be a headache to forecast after going into the Atlantic.

As for the landfall tomorrow I say 130mph around St Marks

[psyclone]

This is another giant grungy gulf beast. a dolphin in a bathtub. a major in the making unless it runs out of time. otherwise relentless strengthening...probably in bursts. white hot fuel all the way to shore. huge surge at the coast and good swath of tree cutting inland...this one is going to leave a mark.

[InfernoFlameCat]

This is another giant grungy gulf beast. a dolphin in a bathtub. a major in the making unless it runs out of time. otherwise relentless strengthening...probably in bursts. white hot fuel all the way to shore. huge surge at the coast and good swath of tree cutting inland...this one is going to leave a mark.

Sir this sounds like a prophecy…

[Coolcruiseman]

Okay it’s less behind than I thought. I do think at this pace, a high-end 3 or low-end 4 is the ceiling. We’re thankfully not gonna get another Michael out of this.

With 12+ hours over water yet seems early to write off a high-end 4 or a Michael. Just sayin’

[FLLurker32]

Looks like we’re just going to get a prolonged afternoon thunderstorm in West central Marion now. I’m wondering if it’s even worth the effort of bringing in the trash can or tying the swing set down.

[tolakram]

[InfernoFlameCat]

Eyewall is thickening and wrapping around the eye. The eye is clearing out. I do not like this trend.

[tolakram]

Updated peak surge map

[galaxy401]

Hitting that part of Florida at that angle is going to cause a big storm surge. I saw earlier that no major hurricane has hit that region of the Gulf in the Satellite era. As far as I know, it's not that populated but it will still cause big trouble.

[Hurrilurker]

Eyewall is thickening and wrapping around the eye. The eye is clearing out. I do not like this trend.

True, but the "good" news is I expected it to do that 12+ hours ago. It's strengthening, but perhaps running out of time to achieve 4+ status. Obviously still bad if you're in the path and hopefully everyone is getting out.

[Coolcruiseman]

Getting a decent “strong” thunderstorm moving north through Brevard. Looks on radar to be an outer band.

Brevard schools closed tomorrow.

[Cuda17]

https://i.imgur.com/BPgbuLV.png

WOW! That core looks very intimidating.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Eyewall is thickening and wrapping around the eye. The eye is clearing out. I do not like this trend.

True, but the "good" news is I expected it to do that 12+ hours ago. It's strengthening, but perhaps running out of time to achieve 4+ status. Obviously still bad if you're in the path and hopefully everyone is getting out.

It has plenty of time to become a cat 4. Many of the hurricane models show a 25+ mb drop between 26N and 28N. The intensification is only beginning.

[LandoWill]

Looks like we’re just going to get a prolonged afternoon thunderstorm in West central Marion now. I’m wondering if it’s even worth the effort of bringing in the trash can or tying the swing set down.

Here in pasco. north of tampa, i did nothing.

[CrazyC83]

This is giving me Ida flashbacks. Struggled in the first half of the Gulf, then kaboom. It could be a long night.

[caneman]

On radar sure looks like a NNE OR NE movement of center. Anyone else see that? Pretty noticeable too

[Highteeld]

Hitting that part of Florida at that angle is going to cause a big storm surge. I saw earlier that no major hurricane has hit that region of the Gulf in the Satellite era. As far as I know, it's not that populated but it will still cause big trouble.

Yeah, the bathymetry is quite good for surge. Not good.

[jfk08c]

On radar sure looks like a NE movement of center. Anyone else see that?

Wobbles gonna wobble

[Zonacane]

On radar sure looks like a NE movement of center. Anyone else see that?

Probably getting tugged east by that intense burst in the Eastern eyewall