ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion
Guessing dropsonde shows about 969 with wind accounted for
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 964.6 mb (28.49 inHg)
From Miss Piggy, so I guess around 969.
From Miss Piggy, so I guess around 969.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion
Watch the upper level flow to the west of Idalia. Turning toward favorable shear from what I can tell, which was forecast. Now conditions should be near ideal all the way until landfall, if the models were correct.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion
Extratropical94 wrote:NOAA 964.6 (low bias), 103kt FL, 84kt SFMR
That suggests an intensity of 90 kt right now.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion
74kt surface wind from the NE eyewall drop, 110kt at 921mb
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion
Saved


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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion
Coolcruiseman wrote:nlosrgr8 wrote:“I” names have the most retired names:
Ian (2022) resulted in 150 deaths
Ida (2021) resulted in 100 deaths
Igor (2010) resulted in 1 death
Ike (2008) resulted in 103 deaths
Inez (1966) resulted in about 300 deaths
Ingrid (2013) resulted in 32 deaths
Ione (1955) resulted in 7 deaths
Iota (2020) resulted in 84 deaths
Irene (2011) resulted in 48 deaths
Iris (2001) resulted in 50 deaths
Irma (2017) resulted in 150 deaths
Isabel (2003) resulted in 51 deaths
Isidore (2002) resulted in 9 deaths
Ivan (2004) resulted in 100 deaths
What’s interesting is 4 years in a row ‘01 to ‘04 the “I” was retired. When Idalia is it’s another 4 year streak, ‘20 to ‘23.
What else is interesting is that all but 2 have occurred since 2000. 50% since 2010. Hmmm.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion
968mb/4kt center drop
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion
I think this is the true beginning of Idalia's RI based on the latest Recon
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion
AF about to make a center pass
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M a r k
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion
We are getting rocked by a nasty squall line here in Cape Canaveral.
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion
I wanted to share this link in case anyone wants to see the storm surge as it happens.
https://www.youtube.com/live/JXoJM5FaDqY?si=DfDUKCer5ulTCbnM
https://www.youtube.com/live/JXoJM5FaDqY?si=DfDUKCer5ulTCbnM
Last edited by Clearcloudz on Tue Aug 29, 2023 5:11 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion
968 mb/90 kts is probably a fair assessment for the intensity
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion
caneman wrote:USTropics wrote:Hugo1989 wrote:
I just saw it! it does look like it will start moving NE till landfall.
Center is dead on with the NHC track currently. We'll see some jogs east and west as the center continues to mature (hurricanes never travel in straight lines, extrapolate motion over several hours instead):
https://i.imgur.com/6oeMhs3.png
I'm looking real time radar not satellite
She has taken a wobble to the east, look at the center drop from recon, not a huge wobble but a wobble eastward none the less
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion
Highteeld wrote:968 mb/90 kts is probably a fair assessment for the intensity
That's a drop of 4 mb in just a little over an hour.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion
https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1696646404515512324?s=46&t=BuzvkpAA-Jzhwl1m0Dnbtg
From Levi Cowan:
“This plane also found that #Idalia's central pressure is now falling at a faster pace than it had been in previous hours, indicating that the pace of strengthening may be quickening. This is unfortunately following the expectations of forecasters so far.”
From Levi Cowan:
“This plane also found that #Idalia's central pressure is now falling at a faster pace than it had been in previous hours, indicating that the pace of strengthening may be quickening. This is unfortunately following the expectations of forecasters so far.”
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion
URNT12 KWBC 292211
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL102023
A. 29/21:44:51Z
B. 26.28 deg N 084.74 deg W
C. NA
D. 968 mb
E. 065 deg 4 kt
F. RAGGED
G. CO12-20
H. 84 kt
I. 099 deg 12 nm 21:41:47Z
J. 181 deg 103 kt
K. 095 deg 15 nm 21:40:55Z
L. 64 kt
M. 244 deg 6 nm 21:46:18Z
N. 313 deg 64 kt
O. 242 deg 10 nm 21:47:27Z
P. 15 C / 2458 m
Q. 23 C / 2460 m
R. 17 C / NA
S. 1234 / NA
T. 0.01 / 2 nm
U. NOAA3 1210A IDALIA OB 06
MAX FL WIND 103 KT 095 / 15 NM 21:40:55Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL102023
A. 29/21:44:51Z
B. 26.28 deg N 084.74 deg W
C. NA
D. 968 mb
E. 065 deg 4 kt
F. RAGGED
G. CO12-20
H. 84 kt
I. 099 deg 12 nm 21:41:47Z
J. 181 deg 103 kt
K. 095 deg 15 nm 21:40:55Z
L. 64 kt
M. 244 deg 6 nm 21:46:18Z
N. 313 deg 64 kt
O. 242 deg 10 nm 21:47:27Z
P. 15 C / 2458 m
Q. 23 C / 2460 m
R. 17 C / NA
S. 1234 / NA
T. 0.01 / 2 nm
U. NOAA3 1210A IDALIA OB 06
MAX FL WIND 103 KT 095 / 15 NM 21:40:55Z
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion
221130 2625N 08439W 6965 02874 9661 +158 +125 296005 009 016 000 00
221200 2624N 08440W 6970 02877 9666 +161 +119 307015 020 019 001 00
221200 2624N 08440W 6970 02877 9666 +161 +119 307015 020 019 001 00
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