ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wx98]

Just measured the eye of Idalia on tilt1 of radar out of Tampa and it's 5 miles across.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/v2/800x600q70/922/wNv0VO.png [/url]

That beam height is about 20,500 ft, while recon is flying at ~10,500 ft FWIW.

[USTropics]

Eye is materializing on IR now, might clear out just as visible imagery ends for the day:

[chaser1]

968 mb/90 kts is probably a fair assessment for the intensity

That's a drop of 4 mb in just a little over an hour.

At that rate, that would work out to like 48 mb just for a 12 hr period. Yeah, i'd expect a 30 knot increase in winds with that kind of pressure falls!

[CrazyC83]

968 mb/90 kts is probably a fair assessment for the intensity

That's a drop of 4 mb in just a little over an hour.

At that rate, that would work out to like 48 mb just for a 12 hr period. Yeah, i'd expect a 30 knot increase in winds with that kind of pressure falls!

If it dropped that much (say, to about 920 mb), we'd have at least a strong category 4.

[jdjaguar]

Eye is materializing on IR now, might clear out just as visible imagery ends for the day:
https://i.imgur.com/vGpWUet.png

from the looks of that frame, and the commensurate 4mb pressure drop, NHC might bump up the projected intensity at 8pm, time intervals notwithstanding.

[Chemmers]

Just measured the eye of Idalia on tilt1 of radar out of Tampa and it's 5 miles across.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/v2/800x600q70/922/wNv0VO.png [/url]

Pinhole

[aspen]

Just measured the eye of Idalia on tilt1 of radar out of Tampa and it's 5 miles across.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/v2/800x600q70/922/wNv0VO.png [/url]

Not the best eye. Look at that moat to the N/NW. Seems like it could attempt an EWRC before landfall.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Recon is showing concentric eyewalls at 12 and 20 miles...so it looks like it is undergoing an EWRC

[Ianswfl]

Just measured the eye of Idalia on tilt1 of radar out of Tampa and it's 5 miles across.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/v2/800x600q70/922/wNv0VO.png [/url]

Almost looks like a mini version of Ian on radar, reversed with weak west side instead of stronger west side like Ian.

[jdjaguar]

That's a drop of 4 mb in just a little over an hour.

At that rate, that would work out to like 48 mb just for a 12 hr period. Yeah, i'd expect a 30 knot increase in winds with that kind of pressure falls!

If it dropped that much (say, to about 920 mb), we'd have at least a strong category 4.

agree. borderline 5 (at least under the prior methodology). lets hope that doesn't happen.

[ROCK]

It was just a matter of time before she bombed! Only lower here on out.

[bjackrian]

If I remember my conversions right, the NE eyewall drop from Miss Piggy had 106 kt instantaneous winds about 2500 feet above the surface (measured at 937 mb, surface 981 mb).

[Tireman4]

It was just a matter of time before she bombed! Only lower here on out.

Yer back!!!!

[tolakram]

Hasn't even cleared out an eye and already calls of EWRC. I won't argue, but I will disagree. We shall see.

[ROCK]

Hasn't even cleared out an eye and already calls of EWRC. I won't argue, but I will disagree. We shall see.

Agree, seems to soon for an EWRC.

[abajan]

I wanted to share this link in case anyone wants to see the storm surge as it happens.

https://www.youtube.com/live/JXoJM5FaDqY?si=DfDUKCer5ulTCbnM

Lemme guess. You wanted to embed that video instead of just posting its link and gave up in utter frustration after pulling your hair out. Right? Been there, done that.

Here we go:

[youtube]https://youtu.be/JXoJM5FaDqY[/youtube]

The trick is to start the URL that's wrapped in the YouTube tags with https://youtu.be/ and then add the video ID after the trailing slash. In this instance, the video ID is JXoJM5FaDqY. So, the full URL to place between the YouTube tags is https://youtu.be/JXoJM5FaDqY (just like it appears below the embedded video above).

[tolakram]

I wanted to share this link in case anyone wants to see the storm surge as it happens.

https://www.youtube.com/live/JXoJM5FaDqY?si=DfDUKCer5ulTCbnM

Lemme guess. You wanted to embed that video instead of just posting its link and gave up in utter frustration after pulling your hair out. Right? Been there, done that.

Here we go:

https://youtu.be/JXoJM5FaDqY

The trick is to start the URL that's wrapped in the YouTube tags with https://youtu.be/ and then add the video ID after the trailing slash. In this instance, the video ID is JXoJM5FaDqY. So, the full URL to place between the YouTube tags is https://youtu.be/JXoJM5FaDqY (just like it appears below the embedded video above).

Yay, I had given up.

[SteveM]

Eye starting to clear out now. Becoming a lot more visible on IR.

[lafaa]

Hasn't even cleared out an eye and already calls of EWRC. I won't argue, but I will disagree. We shall see.

Yeah and it's had the "dreaded pinhole eye" since it was a low end TS too. The hypecasting is really funny to see sometimes.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Hasn't even cleared out an eye and already calls of EWRC. I won't argue, but I will disagree. We shall see.

How else would you explain concentric eyewalls if it isn't an EWRC? I don't know of any other reason