ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

Just an FYI...I am only quoting the recon report which says:

Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)

If anyone can explain another reason for concentric eye walls let me know. There might be an explanation other than a replacement cycle. I am just saying I don't know of one. If one of the pro-mets can chime in...maybe we can all learn something.

Two Eyewalls existing at the same time
(I am not a pro-met though)

[tolakram]

What is the evidence you're citing for concentric eyewalls?

Also, 12 nm and 20 nm are not compatible distances for concentric eyewalls (20 nm is much too small).

Recon

Not sure how the flight is judging concentricity, but if I saw a wind minima between 12 nm and 20 nm I would be pretty confident that it didn't have anything to do with multip[le eyewalls.

I'm not sure the eye was ever complete, but perhaps it's a situation similar to Ike where the eye formation (or in Ike's case EWRC) was interrupted and now it's having issues closing one off. I really don't think that's the case, especially with the pressure drops and lack of evidence other than an observation.

[Clearcloudz]

I wanted to share this link in case anyone wants to see the storm surge as it happens.

https://www.youtube.com/live/JXoJM5FaDqY?si=DfDUKCer5ulTCbnM

Lemme guess. You wanted to embed that video instead of just posting its link and gave up in utter frustration after pulling your hair out. Right? Been there, done that.

Here we go:

https://youtu.be/JXoJM5FaDqY

The trick is to start the URL that's wrapped in the YouTube tags with https://youtu.be/ and then add the video ID after the trailing slash. In this instance, the video ID is JXoJM5FaDqY. So, the full URL to place between the YouTube tags is https://youtu.be/JXoJM5FaDqY (just like it appears below the embedded video above).

Yay, I had given up.

lol yeah. Thanks

[kronotsky]

Recon

Not sure how the flight is judging concentricity, but if I saw a wind minima between 12 nm and 20 nm I would be pretty confident that it didn't have anything to do with multip[le eyewalls. Also, these are diameters, right? How can a storm have an eyewall at 6 nm from the center and also at 10 nm from the center? I'm most inclined to believe it's some kind of typo.

Dude...they said concentric eyewalls...I will defer to them since they know more than I do

Sorry, I'm not criticizing you or trying to single you out. Just saying that something doesn't add up with that observation, in my personal opinion.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Agree, seems to soon for an EWRC.

Never understood the incessant rush to be the first to declare an EWRC. Do you get a donut or something as a prize?

Yes but better yet, one gets concentric donuts!!!

Just an fyi (again) I am not one of those people. Thats what recon wrote. That's good enough for me unless there is another reason

[zzzh]

drop 968mb wind N/A

[eastcoastFL]

Does anyone know how much Michael strengthened from this point to landfall?

[tolakram]

Never understood the incessant rush to be the first to declare an EWRC. Do you get a donut or something as a prize?

Yes but better yet, one gets concentric donuts!!!

Just an fyi (again) I am not one of those people. Thats what recon wrote. That's good enough for me unless there is another reason

EWRC have concentric eyewalls, but concentric eyewalls <> EWRC. In fact the definition of EWRC, which isn't very exact, mentions only in stronger storms (cat3 +).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eyewall_replacement_cycle

Solid /shrug I do not think it's an EWRC, but really not sure.

[chaser1]

Pretty good NE jog per the AF plane. Will it iron out or will it try to move more toward Cedar Key? We shall see…

I thought i had just noticed that on IR too. Too early to tell whether just a wobble or a sharp turn to Taco Bell (don't hate, we've all done it )

[kronotsky]

Does anyone know how much Michael strengthened from this point to landfall?

Not sure exactly, but I believe Michael was already a major 18 hours out from landfall.

[cheezyWXguy]

Concentric eyewalls does not necessarily mean EWRC, it has to have already had a well established eyewall in the first place for it to be replaced. What you’re seeing here is rapidly changing structural dynamics at work. The core is organizing, reorganizing, and aligning vertically. That process is chaotic, especially so when it is occurring rapidly. What we have now is more like a race between the inner and outer eyewall to see which one takes over. My guess is inner, given radar trends.

The interesting thing to me is, this kind of chaos probably occurs in some form in most rapidly organizing tc’s, but we don’t even notice because we don’t have radar and recon simultaneously available for most of those times.

[tolakram]

Concentric eyewalls does not necessarily mean EWRC, it has to have already had a well established eyewall in the first place for it to be replaced. What you’re seeing here is rapidly changing structural dynamics at work. The core is organizing, reorganizing, and aligning vertically. That process is chaotic, especially so when it is occurring rapidly. What we have now is more like a race between the inner and outer eyewall to see which one takes over. My guess is inner, given radar trends.

The interesting thing to me is, this kind of chaos probably occurs in some form in most rapidly organizing tc’s, but we don’t even notice because we don’t have radar and recon simultaneously available for most of those times.

Moving rapidly north is probably not helping either.

[Highteeld]

Probably down to 967 mb. 3mb/hr roughly

[Bocadude85]

Pretty good NE jog per the AF plane. Will it iron out or will it try to move more toward Cedar Key? We shall see…

I thought i had just noticed that on IR too. Too early to tell whether just a wobble or a sharp turn to Taco Bell (don't hate, we've all done it )

You can also see it on the Tampa radar. Just a wobble hopefully

[Sanibel]

Just had some nasty gusts here on Sanibel...

Intense...

[Teban54]

Probably down to 967 mb. 3mb/hr roughly

Looks like all those comments about Idalia not strengthening much aged like milk.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[chaser1]

Yes but better yet, one gets concentric donuts!!!

Just an fyi (again) I am not one of those people. Thats what recon wrote. That's good enough for me unless there is another reason

EWRC have concentric eyewalls, but concentric eyewalls <> EWRC. In fact the definition of EWRC, which isn't very exact, mentions only in stronger storms (cat3 +).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eyewall_replacement_cycle

Solid /shrug I do not think it's an EWRC, but really not sure.

Here, i'll coin a new acronym - EWCP
(Eye Wall Contraction Process) AKA Hurricane Puberty; Process by which a newly developed hurricane suddenly strengthening through a process of rapid pressure falls and a general contraction of convective bands closest to the COC

[Hurricane Mike]

New Video Update for those interested

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tXfNa-LHOt4

[LandoWill]

Pretty good NE jog per the AF plane. Will it iron out or will it try to move more toward Cedar Key? We shall see…

I thought i had just noticed that on IR too. Too early to tell whether just a wobble or a sharp turn to Taco Bell (don't hate, we've all done it )

You can also see it on the Tampa radar. Just a wobble hopefully

Anyone denying it didnt, are wrong, it clearly went NE slightly. But.... could be a wobble, next hour or so will tell