ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2401 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 29, 2023 5:53 pm

981
URNT12 KNHC 292250
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL102023
A. 29/22:11:20Z
B. 26.43 deg N 084.64 deg W
C. 700 mb 2831 m
D. 968 mb
E. NA
F. NA
G. NA
H. 80 kt
I. 045 deg 6 nm 22:03:00Z
J. 138 deg 84 kt
K. 046 deg 10 nm 22:02:00Z
L. 64 kt
M. 224 deg 10 nm 22:14:30Z
N. 290 deg 71 kt
O. 225 deg 13 nm 22:15:30Z
P. 10 C / 3057 m
Q. 17 C / 3058 m
R. 10 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF304 1110A IDALIA OB 11
MAX FL WIND 91 KT 135 / 18 NM 20:26:30Z
RAGGED PRESENTATION AROUND THE CENTER WITH LESS THAN 50 PERCENT COVERAGE
;
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2402 Postby Gatos del Sol » Tue Aug 29, 2023 5:55 pm

SecondBreakfast wrote:What is the terrain like there in the bend? Is there any concern of that effect where it can still suck up energy from warm marshy water in this region so it isn’t as hindered as it comes onshore?

I’m dissertating (biology) and my brain is not remembering meteorology terms…brown ocean effect?


The vast majority of the ‘coast’ between Apalachicola and s bit south of Cedar Key is swampy enough it gets hard to tell where land ends and the Gulf begins, and that swamp extends a fair amount inland in a lot of places. I described it as Everglades North a bit upthread.

So not a ton of friction to slow down wind speeds until the storm starts to get clear of the swamps.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2403 Postby Hurricane2022 » Tue Aug 29, 2023 5:56 pm

tolakram wrote:
981
URNT12 KNHC 292250
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL102023
A. 29/22:11:20Z
B. 26.43 deg N 084.64 deg W
C. 700 mb 2831 m
D. 968 mb
E. NA
F. NA
G. NA
H. 80 kt
I. 045 deg 6 nm 22:03:00Z
J. 138 deg 84 kt
K. 046 deg 10 nm 22:02:00Z
L. 64 kt
M. 224 deg 10 nm 22:14:30Z
N. 290 deg 71 kt
O. 225 deg 13 nm 22:15:30Z
P. 10 C / 3057 m
Q. 17 C / 3058 m
R. 10 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF304 1110A IDALIA OB 11
MAX FL WIND 91 KT 135 / 18 NM 20:26:30Z
RAGGED PRESENTATION AROUND THE CENTER WITH LESS THAN 50 PERCENT COVERAGE
;

Something is not right with Idalia, fortunately
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2404 Postby FireRat » Tue Aug 29, 2023 5:59 pm

Yeah guys, be safe if in the path of Idalia. It will be a powerful hurricane no matter what category! Even a 2 can be nasty, I'm thinking lots of downed trees and power outages are guaranteed at this point.

Hopefully the surge won't be catastrophic, but it is too dangerous to not evacuate. If you haven't done so yet in the Big Bend region, now is the time!!
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2405 Postby chaser1 » Tue Aug 29, 2023 6:01 pm

Whoa?!! Slow that northeast motion down "Buckey"! Yeah, those last few frames were very evident. By the time i'm done writing this though, i'm will to bet that the apparant vort max now on the NW edge of the inner core, will soon swing the center to track back to the north as the vort max rotates counterclockwise a tad more to the west and then south. Still, thats a bit unnerving .... akin to a stair step motion if it were to keep repeating
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2406 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Aug 29, 2023 6:01 pm

abajan wrote:
Clearcloudz wrote:I wanted to share this link in case anyone wants to see the storm surge as it happens.

https://www.youtube.com/live/JXoJM5FaDqY?si=DfDUKCer5ulTCbnM

Lemme guess. You wanted to embed that video instead of just posting its link and gave up in utter frustration after pulling your hair out. Right? Been there, done that. :lol:

Here we go:

https://youtu.be/JXoJM5FaDqY

The trick is to start the URL that's wrapped in the YouTube tags with https://youtu.be/ and then add the video ID after the trailing slash. In this instance, the video ID is JXoJM5FaDqY. So, the full URL to place between the YouTube tags is https://youtu.be/JXoJM5FaDqY (just like it appears below the embedded video above).


Sounds like me. I've been on this site for 15 years and I still can't figure out how to post most things. The surge is going to be abog story with the strength of the storm, angle of approach and tides. Pretty bad set up. Only somewhat of an upside is its one of the lesser populated coastal areas in Florida.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2407 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Aug 29, 2023 6:03 pm

kronotsky wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:Does anyone know how much Michael strengthened from this point to landfall?


Not sure exactly, but I believe Michael was already a major 18 hours out from landfall.


I couldn't remember the details. I just remember that he started as a sloppy mess forecast to make landfall as a TS initially and then became a monster in the gulf. I think every gulf storm has that possibility this time of year.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2408 Postby MetroMike » Tue Aug 29, 2023 6:03 pm

Good luck trying to see the center on Tampa radar.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2409 Postby FLLurker32 » Tue Aug 29, 2023 6:04 pm

chaser1 wrote:Whoa?!! Slow that northeast motion down "Buckey"! Yeah, those last few frames were very evident. By the time i'm done writing this though, i'm will to bet that the apparant vort max now on the NW edge of the inner core, will soon swing the center to track back to the north as the vort max rotates counterclockwise a tad more to the west and then south. Still, thats a bit unnerving .... akin to a stair step motion if it were to keep repeating

We need to see a good map of where the ridge is currently.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2410 Postby Jr0d » Tue Aug 29, 2023 6:05 pm

LandoWill wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
I thought i had just noticed that on IR too. Too early to tell whether just a wobble or a sharp turn to Taco Bell (don't hate, we've all done it :ggreen: )


You can also see it on the Tampa radar. Just a wobble hopefully

Anyone denying it didnt, are wrong, it clearly went NE slightly. But.... could be a wobble, next hour or so will tell


We know it will turn NE in the next 12 to 18 hours, then ENE...how sharp and when it happens is guess work.

I see that wobble. Hopefully thats all it is. We do not want to see an early east turn and the mouth of Tampa Bay get the south side of the eye wall. The science and forecast track tells me Tampa Bay is unlikely to experience a 'worst case' scenario with Idalia.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2411 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Tue Aug 29, 2023 6:08 pm

Teban54 wrote:
Highteeld wrote:Probably down to 967 mb. 3mb/hr roughly

Looks like all those comments about Idalia not strengthening much aged like milk.


I mean, she's certainly strengthening but this is far from the worst case scenario. Eye is still quite ragged and the winds haven't exactly exploded, landfall isn't that far away anymore.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2412 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 29, 2023 6:08 pm

saved loop
Image
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2413 Postby Teban54 » Tue Aug 29, 2023 6:09 pm

That big convective burst that has covered the northern half of the eyewall looks like it's almost done wrapping up. That should clear whatever shenanigans Idalia is having with the eye, if any.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2414 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 29, 2023 6:11 pm

It might be a bit sheared / tilted.

Image
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2415 Postby Teban54 » Tue Aug 29, 2023 6:11 pm

tolakram wrote:saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/fETPbsC.gif

Right below a comment saying the eye is quite ragged :lol:
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2416 Postby FLLurker32 » Tue Aug 29, 2023 6:12 pm

Jr0d wrote:
LandoWill wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:
You can also see it on the Tampa radar. Just a wobble hopefully

Anyone denying it didnt, are wrong, it clearly went NE slightly. But.... could be a wobble, next hour or so will tell


We know it will turn NE in the next 12 to 18 hours, then ENE...how sharp and when it happens is guess work.

I see that wobble. Hopefully thats all it is. We do not want to see an early east turn and the mouth of Tampa Bay get the south side of the eye wall. The science and forecast track tells me Tampa Bay is unlikely to experience a 'worst case' scenario with Idalia.


While Tampa isn’t likely, there are hundreds of thousands of us who’s impacts would change significantly by East of cone shifts. We matter too and our north central FL area would easily be devastated. I had no power for 2 weeks after Irma and they only recorded sustained winds of 40mph then. So you can imagine what this could do to our infrastructure if it wobbles East just enough.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2417 Postby Nimbus » Tue Aug 29, 2023 6:13 pm

Caught some dry air while my power was out cool.
If anything the center looks like it is moving 357 not northeast?
Sanibel had some real gusty winds in the squalls and that is quite a distance from the center.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2418 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Aug 29, 2023 6:13 pm

PavelGaborik10 wrote:
Teban54 wrote:
Highteeld wrote:Probably down to 967 mb. 3mb/hr roughly

Looks like all those comments about Idalia not strengthening much aged like milk.


I mean, she's certainly strengthening but this is far from the worst case scenario. Eye is still quite ragged and the winds haven't exactly exploded, landfall isn't that far away anymore.


I certainly hope you're right. However, 12 hours over 30-31 F Gulf waters, let alone with how systems like these have behaved in the Gulf in the recent past...this could be a case where we won't exactly know how it all pans out until after landfall.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2419 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Aug 29, 2023 6:13 pm

CDO appearance on IR looks considerably improved vs three hours ago.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2420 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Tue Aug 29, 2023 6:14 pm

Teban54 wrote:
tolakram wrote:saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/fETPbsC.gif

Right below a comment saying the eye is quite ragged :lol:


Take it up with the Vortex message.
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