ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LandoWill]

I thought i had just noticed that on IR too. Too early to tell whether just a wobble or a sharp turn to Taco Bell (don't hate, we've all done it )

You can also see it on the Tampa radar. Just a wobble hopefully

Anyone denying it didnt, are wrong, it clearly went NE slightly. But.... could be a wobble, next hour or so will tell

and wobble completed back. all is well

[Highteeld]

Could make a case for 966 mb based of extrap data

[tolakram]

saved IR loop

[Dean4Storms]

Outflow on its western flank is impeded, note the almost flat side to it satellite presentation. Guess it's just enough westerly shear to slow it from just exploding this evening so far.

[aspen]

NOAA found 80 kt FL winds in the N quadrant, by far the highest yet from that side of the storm. Seems like the pressure went down maybe 1 mbar from last pass.

[Hurricane Mike]

We can hope the hurricane force winds remain confined narrow and close to the center, that could potentially help limit the scope of the surge impacts.

[Craters]

NHC at 11am predicted Idalia would be at 105mph at 00z. Right now at nearly 21z it's close to 100mph.

Right on track with intensity. 110-115 knot at landfall is still a good prediction.

140 knots+ though? No way.

Never say never because the Hurricane Gods will spite you...lol

Better that they spite than smite, in this case.

[chris_fit]

[ElectricStorm]

North quad looks much better on this pass and the pressure continues to drop. Deep convection continues to wrap around. Still on pace for a 105-115kt landfall imo

[Fancy1002]

Based on the last frame, I’m not sure if the eye is becoming oval-shaped, or if it’s collapsing in on itself.

[ElectricStorm]

Latest eye drop supports 965mb

[PavelGaborik10]

Looks like all those comments about Idalia not strengthening much aged like milk.

I mean, she's certainly strengthening but this is far from the worst case scenario. Eye is still quite ragged and the winds haven't exactly exploded, landfall isn't that far away anymore.

I certainly hope you're right. However, 12 hours over 30-31 F Gulf waters, let alone with how systems like these have behaved in the Gulf in the recent past...this could be a case where we won't exactly know how it all pans out until after landfall.

I still think a low-moderate cat 3 is quite possible if not likely, but all things considered I was confident in a 4. I don't think that's likely at this point, at all.

[SpaceyLacey]

For anyone that asked earlier, around this point Michael was 955mb and 120mph

Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk

[tolakram]

HAFS-A and B show ragged eyewalls until the last hour and still drop pressure to 948, 110kt winds. This is well down from 121kt predictions the previous run. HWRF 938 with winds near 105kts.

[chris_fit]

Great job NHC with track thus far.

[CrazyC83]

Pressure has dropped 7 mb in about 2 1/2 hours. Still about 12-15 hours to go too.

[Steve]

Whoa?!! Slow that northeast motion down "Buckey"! Yeah, those last few frames were very evident. By the time i'm done writing this though, i'm will to bet that the apparant vort max now on the NW edge of the inner core, will soon swing the center to track back to the north as the vort max rotates counterclockwise a tad more to the west and then south. Still, thats a bit unnerving .... akin to a stair step motion if it were to keep repeating

We need to see a good map of where the ridge is currently.

Couple ways - 1) look for current us surface map (or North America if you can find that) or 2) run water vapor for the area you want to see and look for the clockwise flow.

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/nOQRpEy.gif

Eyewall thunderstorms are looking a little stronger at the end of that loop.

[Blown Away]

Looks solid NNE now

[PTPatrick]

Watching Tallahassee closely as fsu is my alma mater. This is certainly not looking good for the capital city. The worst storm in history there was a relatively weakened Kate that passed over in 1985, with a max gust of 87mph(FSU reading). Recently Michael was bad as well with a max gust of 71 (FSU reading) and most of the city was down for 3 weeks. Certainly could have been high gusts in other spots, but It certainly missed the shear destruction of towns west (Blountsown and Quincy). The city may end up on the western edge of the eye wall here which, while better than east, is still likely to create quite a mess. Been a long time since I visited but if recall density drops quickly when cross capital circle southeast. Plenty of towns between Tally and lake city will get rocked though.

Surge will be terrible but I suppose if there is a silver lining it will mostly be in areas with low population density and many elevated stilt structures. Taylor, Dixie, and Jefferson county are some the least populated areas of the state, partly because it’s mostly swamp at the coast. Communities like Steinhatchee, Perry, cedar key will be in very bad shape though. Sending dry thoughts.