ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

Losing the light. Rectangle CDO is telling us something, just not sure what.

[kronotsky]

I mean, she's certainly strengthening but this is far from the worst case scenario. Eye is still quite ragged and the winds haven't exactly exploded, landfall isn't that far away anymore.

I certainly hope you're right. However, 12 hours over 30-31 F Gulf waters, let alone with how systems like these have behaved in the Gulf in the recent past...this could be a case where we won't exactly know how it all pans out until after landfall.

I still think a low-moderate cat 3 is quite possible if not likely, but all things considered I was confident in a 4. I don't think that's likely at this point, at all.

Not sure if I would say a 4 is likely, but recon is finding a deepening rate of around 3 mb/hour. If it slows down to 2 and stays there through landfall, it'll be a lower end 4. Definitely much too early to say.

[cycloneye]

Finding the best spot.

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1696657352676581610

[Highteeld]

965 mb

[emings]

Roy's Restaurant on the Steinhatchee River has a Webcam it'll keep going until it loses power

[youtube]https://youtu.be/el7zV1R7zx8[/youtube]

http://www.steinhatchee.com/steinhatche ... Dc-3rQUrDo

[Full8s]

Looks like we’re just going to get a prolonged afternoon thunderstorm in West central Marion now. I’m wondering if it’s even worth the effort of bringing in the trash can or tying the swing set down.

Here in pasco. north of tampa, i did nothing.

Here in western Pasco I brought in all the patio and pool furniture just in case of tornadic activity, although NOAA has us with a maximum of 51 mph gusts at 0500. Better safe than sorry.

[caneman]

Anyone denying it didnt, are wrong, it clearly went NE slightly. But.... could be a wobble, next hour or so will tell

We know it will turn NE in the next 12 to 18 hours, then ENE...how sharp and when it happens is guess work.

I see that wobble. Hopefully thats all it is. We do not want to see an early east turn and the mouth of Tampa Bay get the south side of the eye wall. The science and forecast track tells me Tampa Bay is unlikely to experience a 'worst case' scenario with Idalia.

While Tampa isn’t likely, there are hundreds of thousands of us who’s impacts would change significantly by East of cone shifts. We matter too and our north central FL area would easily be devastated. I had no power for 2 weeks after Irma and they only recorded sustained winds of 40mph then. So you can imagine what this could do to our infrastructure if it wobbles East just enough.

Irma winds reached 90 mph in wind gusts here in Tampa Bay!

[Teban54]

Losing the light. Rectangle CDO is telling us something, just not sure what.

https://i.imgur.com/jl1rWU3.png

I think it's just a result of the current burst of convection not fully wrapping around yet. The CDO is now looking a lot more circular just a few minutes after, and I expect it to continue.

[Craters]

It was just a matter of time before she bombed! Only lower here on out.

Hey, Rock!

[Keldeo1997]

Doble EW is gone

[LandoWill]

We know it will turn NE in the next 12 to 18 hours, then ENE...how sharp and when it happens is guess work.

I see that wobble. Hopefully thats all it is. We do not want to see an early east turn and the mouth of Tampa Bay get the south side of the eye wall. The science and forecast track tells me Tampa Bay is unlikely to experience a 'worst case' scenario with Idalia.

While Tampa isn’t likely, there are hundreds of thousands of us who’s impacts would change significantly by East of cone shifts. We matter too and our north central FL area would easily be devastated. I had no power for 2 weeks after Irma and they only recorded sustained winds of 40mph then. So you can imagine what this could do to our infrastructure if it wobbles East just enough.

Irma winds reached 90 mph in wind gusts here in Tampa Bay!

yeah it took the bark off my trees, strongest storm I've ever been near/in. My pool went from perfect to you couldn't see the bottom from all the debris

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1696664855804252433

[caneman]

While Tampa isn’t likely, there are hundreds of thousands of us who’s impacts would change significantly by East of cone shifts. We matter too and our north central FL area would easily be devastated. I had no power for 2 weeks after Irma and they only recorded sustained winds of 40mph then. So you can imagine what this could do to our infrastructure if it wobbles East just enough.

Irma winds reached 90 mph in wind gusts here in Tampa Bay!

yeah it took the bark off my trees, strongest storm I've ever been near/in. My pool went from perfect to you couldn't see the bottom from all the debris

Indian Rocks Beach we had trees and fencing down. Looked like a bomb went off in the streets.

[PavelGaborik10]

I certainly hope you're right. However, 12 hours over 30-31 F Gulf waters, let alone with how systems like these have behaved in the Gulf in the recent past...this could be a case where we won't exactly know how it all pans out until after landfall.

I still think a low-moderate cat 3 is quite possible if not likely, but all things considered I was confident in a 4. I don't think that's likely at this point, at all.

Not sure if I would say a 4 is likely, but recon is finding a deepening rate of around 3 mb/hour. If it slows down to 2 and stays there through landfall, it'll be a lower end 4. Definitely much too early to say.

It's had a lot of pit stops so far, and even with the drops you can't predict if the winds will catch up or not prior to landfall.

I'm betting against a cat 4.

[CrazyC83]

322
URNT15 KNHC 292343
AF304 1110A IDALIA HDOB 32 20230829
233430 2640N 08430W 6959 02940 //// +106 //// 237092 097 074 022 01
233500 2641N 08431W 6968 02915 //// +109 //// 234079 088 084 015 01
233530 2642N 08433W 6970 02895 //// +111 //// 234057 075 084 015 01
233600 2643N 08434W 6976 02875 9692 +127 //// 229047 048 065 006 01
233630 2644N 08435W 6958 02888 9683 +137 //// 230040 048 047 004 01
233700 2645N 08437W 6966 02865 9660 +147 +132 224035 038 040 002 00
233730 2647N 08438W 6963 02859 9639 +158 +125 223022 030 036 002 00
233800 2648N 08439W 6969 02847 9634 +158 +128 260011 018 028 001 00
233830 2650N 08440W 6975 02833 9624 +163 +134 334005 010 022 000 03
233900 2651N 08440W 6951 02864 9633 +155 +134 118011 018 022 000 00
233930 2653N 08439W 6966 02855 9647 +152 +124 140027 029 024 000 03
234000 2652N 08437W 6968 02851 9643 +153 +123 151027 029 /// /// 03
234030 2651N 08439W 6964 02843 9627 +155 +123 146011 025 019 001 00
234100 2650N 08441W 6970 02836 9632 +150 +137 337016 023 023 002 00
234130 2648N 08442W 6957 02860 9653 +138 //// 324035 048 028 002 01
234200 2646N 08442W 6969 02868 9670 +142 +141 303062 063 /// /// 03
234230 2645N 08440W 6967 02868 9673 +140 //// 283055 064 /// /// 05
234300 2646N 08438W 6958 02864 9659 +134 //// 259044 051 /// /// 05
234330 2648N 08437W 6970 02837 9637 +145 +141 228026 038 029 001 03
234400 2649N 08438W 6968 02836 9625 +156 +129 230012 021 028 002 00
$$
;

97 kt FL, 84 kt SFMR. Pressure 962 mb.

[NDG]

Looks like pressure continues to drop.

RNT15 KNHC 292343
AF304 1110A IDALIA HDOB 32 20230829
233430 2640N 08430W 6959 02940 //// +106 //// 237092 097 074 022 01
233500 2641N 08431W 6968 02915 //// +109 //// 234079 088 084 015 01
233530 2642N 08433W 6970 02895 //// +111 //// 234057 075 084 015 01
233600 2643N 08434W 6976 02875 9692 +127 //// 229047 048 065 006 01
233630 2644N 08435W 6958 02888 9683 +137 //// 230040 048 047 004 01
233700 2645N 08437W 6966 02865 9660 +147 +132 224035 038 040 002 00
233730 2647N 08438W 6963 02859 9639 +158 +125 223022 030 036 002 00
233800 2648N 08439W 6969 02847 9634 +158 +128 260011 018 028 001 00
233830 2650N 08440W 6975 02833 9624 +163 +134 334005 010 022 000 03
233900 2651N 08440W 6951 02864 9633 +155 +134 118011 018 022 000 00
233930 2653N 08439W 6966 02855 9647 +152 +124 140027 029 024 000 03
234000 2652N 08437W 6968 02851 9643 +153 +123 151027 029 /// /// 03
234030 2651N 08439W 6964 02843 9627 +155 +123 146011 025 019 001 00
234100 2650N 08441W 6970 02836 9632 +150 +137 337016 023 023 002 00
234130 2648N 08442W 6957 02860 9653 +138 //// 324035 048 028 002 01
234200 2646N 08442W 6969 02868 9670 +142 +141 303062 063 /// /// 03
234230 2645N 08440W 6967 02868 9673 +140 //// 283055 064 /// /// 05
234300 2646N 08438W 6958 02864 9659 +134 //// 259044 051 /// /// 05
234330 2648N 08437W 6970 02837 9637 +145 +141 228026 038 029 001 03
234400 2649N 08438W 6968 02836 9625 +156 +129 230012 021 028 002 00

[Teban54]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/697996354537914448/1146228283663454208/Screenshot_163.png

Doble EW is gone

And the eye is now circular.

The VDM was from 23:00z and open SW. Right after that, the leading hot tower wrapped around that portion of the eye and is now reaching SE. Radar also shows improvement during these 45 minutes.

I'd say the structural issues have probably been resolved by now.

[tolakram]

Losing the light. Rectangle CDO is telling us something, just not sure what.

https://i.imgur.com/jl1rWU3.png

I think it's just a result of the current burst of convection not fully wrapping around yet. The CDO is now looking a lot more circular just a few minutes after, and I expect it to continue.

Might be right. Let's see if the eye finally clears out.

[nlosrgr8]

If there is a silver lining…I believe the area within the cone is sparsely populated swampy areas. I am I right?

[aspen]

This is reminding me of Michael in that it took forever to have a closed eyewall. Even like 12-18 hours before landfall, recon was still finding an open eyewall, and it wouldn’t close off until later the night before landfall IIRC.