ATL: JOSE - Remnants - Discussion

[Teban54]

This is a tropical cyclone.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Man this invest feels like it has been out there forever and tried to spin up 3 or 4 times. I agree though I think it has finallly done it. A TD at least.

This is a tropical cyclone.
https://i.postimg.cc/PrMgWbzQ/goes16-vis-swir-92-L-202308290805.gif

[ChrisH-UK]

It is looking good. The latest ASCAT is still showing the circulation bee a bit stretched out. I could see the odds been bumped up a lot.

[Extratropical94]

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL92):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday in
association with an area of low pressure located several hundred
miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some additional development of this system, and a
short-lived tropical depression could form during the next day or
two while the system drifts generally northward over the central
subtropical Atlantic. By Thursday, upper-level winds are forecast to
become unfavorable for further development of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[Extratropical94]

AL, 92, 2023082912, , BEST, 0, 280N, 516W, 30, 1015, LO

[Extratropical94]

STWO

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL92):
Updated: Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda has
become better defined and is producing winds of 30 to 35 mph over
the eastern portion of its circulation. The associated shower and
thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of organization, and a
short-lived tropical depression is likely to form today while the
system moves slowly northward over the central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[zzzh]

11L.ELEVEN

Immediately

[Subtrop]

AL, 11, 2023082912, , BEST, 0, 280N, 516W, 30, 1015, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1018, 100, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELEVEN, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 021, TRANSITIONED, alC22023 to al112023,

[Sciencerocks]

[ChrisH-UK]

TD-11 doesn't look as good as earlier, looks like it is have some shear issues which is affect the convection.

[Extratropical94]

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 51.4W
ABOUT 855 MI...1375 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES

Pressure is high for a TD

Yep, it sits in a region of relatively high background SLPs. The pressure of the outermost closed isobar is even 1018mb

[Category5Kaiju]

Those social media comments earlier this month speculating that August 2023 could be as dead as August 2022 must be having a wonderful time now

[abajan]

Those social media comments earlier this month speculating that August 2023 could be as dead as August 2022 must be having a wonderful time now

To be honest, I myself thought it was a distinct possibility despite the much warmer than normal Atlantic Basin.

[Sciencerocks]

[wxman57]

No time to post past 3 days, working 3:30am-5pm. One thing to say about Eleven:



All models have it dissipating this evening.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[zhukm29]

Not bad at all for a system the models predicted should be dead for several days now… definitely a persistent system that has defied expectations during its life (I can’t think of any other 0/0 systems that developed within 48 hours).

In fact, I’d argue it looks nicer than several tropical storms we had this season. Definitely taking advantage of the short window it has to potentially earn a name. Hopefully we get ASCAT, but with ASCAT’s track record it will miss again and we probably won’t know how strong it is at the moment.

[wxman57]

Not bad at all for a system the models predicted should be dead for several days now… definitely a persistent system that has defied expectations during its life (I can’t think of any other 0/0 systems that developed within 48 hours).

In fact, I’d argue it looks nicer than several tropical storms we had this season. Definitely taking advantage of the short window it has to potentially earn a name. Hopefully we get ASCAT, but with ASCAT’s track record it will miss again and we probably won’t know how strong it is at the moment.

https://i.ibb.co/HCR30zJ/goes16-ir-11-L-202308301455.gif

It has been dead for several days now. NHC has it on life support. They've been performing CPR on it the past 24 hours with no luck. Forget the paddles, time to call it, NHC.