ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

Wow

---- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 AUG 2023 Time : 001020 UTC
Lat : 27:00:36 N Lon : 84:33:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 970.6mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.9 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -45.4C Cloud Region Temp : -68.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Highteeld]

CDO becoming more symmetrical too. C5 isn't impossible

[tolakram]

Proxy Visible from SLIDER

[Highteeld]

It's explosively intensifying

[Abdullah]

A pinhole eye of 6 mi across gives it approximately the same eye size as Andrew 1992, Opal 1995, and Dennis 2004.

How fast did those systems deepen, in millibars per hour?

[GCANE]

Currently there is a calculated 50% probability that it'll be mid Cat 4 at landfall

[Zonacane]

A pinhole eye of 6 mi across gives it approximately the same eye size as Andrew 1992, Opal 1995, and Dennis 2004.

How fast did those systems deepen, in millibars per hour?

A lot

[Highteeld]

Currently there is a calculated 50% probability that it'll be mid Cat 4 at landfall

Is that from SHIPS? Not sure how well it can be calibrated in this scenario given the recent trends for storms to bomb out in the Gulf before landfall and how small the eye currently is.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[skillz305]

Proxy Visible from SLIDER
https://i.imgur.com/iVxkSuf.gif

Beautiful. But not for its location.

[Highteeld]

959mb/95 kt is probably where this thing sits right now

[WiscoWx02]

I'm thinking a high end category 2 at landfall or low end category 3. Regardless storm surge is still going to be insane due to the speed that Idalia is tracking and how big the winfield is.

[InfernoFlameCat]

A pinhole eye of 6 mi across gives it approximately the same eye size as Andrew 1992, Opal 1995, and Dennis 2004.

How fast did those systems deepen, in millibars per hour?

Dennis at one point deepened at 11mb in one hour.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I'm thinking a high end category 2 at landfall or low end category 3. Regardless storm surge is still going to be insane due to the speed that Idalia is tracking and how big the winfield is.

That is quite bearish as this seems to be knocking on the doorstep of cat 3 rn

[NDG]

NOAA recon turned back right away for another pass, it will be interesting what pressure it will read.

[aspen]

I know everyone’s pretty excited by the possible pinhole, but I think the eye is a little larger. I also think we’ll see the pressure level off in a bit as the winds try to catch up. Idalia will probably be in the upper 950s next pass, and recon is barely finding evidence of Cat 2 surface winds. There’ll likely be a pause in its rapid deepening as the eye clears some more and the winds work their way down to the surface.

[ElectricStorm]

I'm thinking a high end category 2 at landfall or low end category 3. Regardless storm surge is still going to be insane due to the speed that Idalia is tracking and how big the winfield is.

That's pretty much where it's at right now. And it's clearly bombing, you don't think it will intensity any more?

[KC7NEC]

I hope that the models are handling the unprecedented water temps. I worry that since there is no data for water this warm the models could be underestimating the storm. Hopefully this thing doesn't RI tonight when it gets into the really hot water.

[GCANE]

Current estimate for an EWRC occur is 10% probability.
The big tell is to watch the eye drops and see if relative humidity starts to drop; i.e. eye starts to dry out.
This is the clue that an EWRC is in the making.

[jdjaguar]

Proxy Visible from SLIDER
https://i.imgur.com/iVxkSuf.gif

can we say pinhole now?

just wow!